The madness of March has returned in full force.
Already, two of the top five teams with the best odds to win the 2022 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament has been eliminated. Kentucky was knocked out in the first round, and No. 1 Baylor was taken out in the second round of the tournament.
Several other heavy favorites remain in the field, however. Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Duke have all survived to the round of 16, keeping alive the hopes of many brackets that picked the high-seeded programs to go deep .
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At this point, every bracket has at least one blemish — and likely a few others — but there’s still hope to win that bracket pool. Each game from the Sweet 16 forward will be worth more points, meaning there is still hope for brackets to make big comebacks and win their pools.
There’s also bettors that will be looking at the Sweet 16 as a chance to put down some more money on teams to advance to the Elite Eight and beyond.
With that, The Sporting News is taking a look at the betting odds and model projections for teams to reach the Elite Eight.
The Sporting News is running a projection model that looks into the field and which teams are the most likely to come out of each matchup. The model is based on a composite ranking from the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings, two of the top college basketball ranking systems, along with offensive and defensive stats and ratings based on teams’ game-by-game results throughout the 2021-22 season. The model then runs a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament 20,000 times and derives the outcomes from the result of each simulation.
Here is a look at the current odds and model projections for teams to advance past the Sweet 16 in the 2022 NCAA tournament. All odds are courtesy of Sports Interaction.
March Madness odds 2022
The teams with the best odds to win a championship has not changed too much since the start of the tournament. Gonzaga remains the major favorite to win — with their odds only going up — while Arizona, Duke and Kansas also help round out the top five.
| Region | Team | Seed | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| West | Gonzaga | 1 | +205 |
| South | Arizona | 1 | +460 |
| Midwest | Kansas | 1 | +475 |
| West | Duke | 2 | +800 |
| East | Purdue | 3 | +900 |
The biggest change is that Kentucky, which entered as the second-best odds to win it all, was eliminated in the first round and the East’s No. 1 seed, Baylor, was also knocked out, paving the way for No. 3 Purdue to enter the top five at +900.
The Sporting News model is similar, but is not nearly as high on Duke. Here’s a look at how the model views the rest of the tournament shaking out, with percentages converted to odds.
| Region | Team | Seed | Title Win Percent | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | Gonzaga | 1 | 22.9% | +337 |
| Midwest | Kansas | 1 | 14.2% | +605 |
| South | Arizona | 1 | 10.6% | +843 |
| East | Purdue | 3 | 9.7% | +927 |
| South | Houston | 5 | 9.6% | +944 |
The biggest difference between the oddsmakers and the model is Duke. The model gives the Blue Devils just a 5.2 percent chance of winning it all (+1834 odds). The model views Duke as about an even bet to beat Texas Tech and as a major underdog against Gonzaga (Bulldogs would have a 66 percent chance to win in a head-to-head clash), if it should move past that round.
As for Kansas and Arizona, it views the team as similar and would give Arizona a 53.1 percent chance of winning in a head-to-head matchup, but the model sees Kansas’ road to the Final Four as easier compared to Arizona’s.
The model looks at Purdue as having the best odds of reaching the Elite Eight of any remaining team and third-best odds of reaching the Final Four, but it predicts Gonzaga has a 67.6 percent chance of beating the Boilermakers, if the teams match up.
Here’s how the model views the field overall.
Sweet 16 odds by region
Here is a look at the odds and projections for each team to advance to the Elite Eight and beyond.
East
Purdue has already faced the most turmoil of any of the four regions, but the oddsmakers suggest that that will end now.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Purdue | -683 | -125 | +900 |
| 4 | UCLA | -135 | +209 | +1200 |
| 8 | North Carolina | +112 | +349 | +2200 |
| 15 | Saint Peter’s | +534 | +1394 | +11700 |
Purdue is the highest remaining seed, and the odds have it as the third-best team to reach the Final Four. That starts with the Boilermakers being the heaviest favorite to reach the Elite Eight in the field, as bookmakers believe the Cinderella run for the Peacocks will come to an end.
The model follows the odds fairly closely. It sees Purdue as a strong bet to beat the Peacocks and sees UCLA as a slight favorite to beat UNC. However, the model would predict UCLA as a slight favorite to beat Purdue (51.4 percent), while Purdue would have a 62.8 percent chance to beat UNC.
The reason Purdue has the better odds to reach the Final Four than UCLA? UCLA has the tougher Sweet 16 path compared to Purdue.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Purdue | 86.6% | 46.6% | 19% | 9.7% |
| 4 | UCLA | 63.5% | 35% | 14.8% | 7.5% |
| 8 | North Carolina | 36.5% | 16.4% | 5.1% | 2% |
| 15 | Saint Peter’s | 13.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0% |
Midwest
Kansas has one of the easiest paths to the championship game, and oddsmakers view them as both favorites to win against Providence in the Sweet 16 and emerge out of the Midwest region in the Final Four.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | -311 | -196 | +475 |
| 4 | Providence | +256 | +473 | +5700 |
| 10 | Miami | -144 | +497 | +6100 |
| 11 | Iowa State | +120 | +547 | +8400 |
Kansas was always viewed as the favorite to come out of the Midwest. With No. 2 Auburn, No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 5 Iowa and No. 6 LSU, the path looks significantly easier. Coming into the tournament, bookmakers had Providence as having worse odds to reach the Final Four than the fifth and sixth seeds and equal odds to No. 8 San Diego State.
If Kansas beats Providence, it then has to get past a double-digit seed. Whether it’s Miami or Iowa State, expect the Jayhawks to be heavy favorites again.
The model views Kansas’ upcoming game against Providence as the biggest challenge remaining. The Jayhawks would have a 75.4 percent chance of beating Miami and a 74.4 percent chance of beating Iowa State, as of right now.
Should Providence beat Kansas, it would be picked as a 50.6 percent favorite against Iowa State and a 55.4 percent favorite against Miami.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | 72.5% | 53.4% | 29% | 14.2% |
| 4 | Providence | 27.5% | 15.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| 10 | Miami | 48.2% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| 11 | Iowa State | 51.8% | 16.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
South
There are three teams in the South region that each stand a strong chance of advancing to the Final Four. Bookmakers aren’t looking too favorably at the 11-seeded Wolverines.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | -133 | +140 | +460 |
| 2 | Villanova | -204 | +240 | +1200 |
| 5 | Houston | +111 | +230 | +900 |
| 11 | Michigan | +170 | +927 | +4200 |
Arizona and Villanova are favorites to advance to the Elite Eight, and Houston and Villanova are about equal to reach the Final Four. In essence, the oddsmakers think Villanova has the easiest path to the Elite Eight, Arizona is the best team remaining in the region and Houston is just behind Arizona.
This is about how the model sees the region playing out. It has both the Arizona-Houston matchup as a toss-up, while giving the edge to Villanova against Michigan. The model would give Houston a 57.9 percent chance of beating Villanova, and it would put Arizona as a 56.9 percent favorite to beat Villanova.
Michigan’s chances of advancing past Villanova are already long, and it would again be a heavy underdog against either team in the next round. Arizona and Houston would both have a 69.9 percent chance to beat Michigan.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 50.9% | 31.4% | 19.3% | 10.6% |
| 2 | Villanova | 63.2% | 26.6% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| 5 | Houston | 49.1% | 30.8% | 18.9% | 9.6% |
| 11 | Michigan | 36.8% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
West
Gonzaga remains the heavy favorite to win the national championship, and as such, oddsmakers don’t like the chances for the rest of the teams in the bracket.
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | -383 | -222 | +205 |
| 2 | Duke | -101 | +421 | +800 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | -119 | +401 | +1300 |
| 4 | Arkansas | +312 | +903 | +3900 |
Only the Midwest region has longer odds for the non-favorites than the ones set for the rest of the West. Duke and Texas Tech are about even to reach the Final Four, but Arkansas has the third-worst odds to advance to the Final Four of any team and well below all the other top four seeds.
Interestingly, Duke is a slight underdog against Texas Tech, but has better odds to win a national championship than the Red Raiders. That might well be a nod to the respect given to coach Mike Krzyzewski by both bookmakers and bettors, who feel Coach K could go out on a high note.
The model has Gonzaga as a major favorite to advance out of the Sweet 16, past the Final Four and into the championship. It has Duke and Texas Tech as about even, while giving the Red Raiders a slight edge the rest of the way to reach the Final Four and championship. Gonzaga would be favored over Duke at 67 percent and Texas Tech at 65 percent, while Arkansas would be underdogs to Duke (61.8 percent) and Texas Tech (61.4 percent).
| Seed | Team | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 76.1% | 49.2% | 36.6% | 22.9% |
| 2 | Duke | 49.7% | 20% | 9.3% | 5.2% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 50.3% | 21.9% | 11.1% | 5.5% |
| 4 | Arkansas | 23.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |