NEW ORLEANS – There probably were a few more treacherous activities at the 2022 Final Four than trying to project a top 25 for the 2022-23 season, like drinking a hurricane while hanging off a Bourbon Street balcony, or merely trying to cross a city street when the sign says “walk”.
They don’t seem to care much for pedestrians here, and I’ve got witnesses.
This exercise, what we call the Way Too Early Top 25, may be a bit less hazardous to one’s health, but certainly not to one’s peace of mind.
Here’s what we don’t know about next season: We don’t know who will turn pro, who will transfer, and where those transfers might land. The No. 1 player from the No. 1 team may decide he’s had enough of college basketball, even if the NBA isn’t begging him to join the show. A player who has an enormous opportunity for stardom may choose not to recognize that and transfer anyway.
DECOURCY: My New Orleans history, from the cheap seats to press row
We carry on, anyway, because we know you’re curious.
1. Kentucky
2022 finish: 26-8, NCAA round of 64
Overview: The Wildcats won’t be here when we release this list in the fall if Oscar Tshiebwe, The Sporting News Player of the Year, does not return for another season. He won enough such trophies that he doesn’t have anything more to prove as an individual collegian, but he might want to win an NCAA Tournament game before he leaves, and there could be money for him in the NIL category. And it appears unlikely he will be a first-round pick.
Tshiebwe would be wise to enter the draft to get the best possible information, which seems almost certain, but he could return. The Wildcats have recruited two top-10 wings in the 2022 recruiting class, should get more out of this year’s freshmen, Bryce Hopkins and Daimion Collins, and still should have point guard Sahvir Wheeler in charge of the offense.
With a few more prospects gathered from the transfer portal, there could be enough here to make disgruntled Kentucky fans forget Saint Peter’s.
2. UCLA
2022 finish: 27-8, NCAA Sweet 16
Overview: Given that the core players from this program were in the Final Four last season, it seems almost outrageous that pretty much the entire team is eligible to return. It’s essential that point guard Tyger Campbell is one of those that remains a Bruin, which appears likely. It would be a significant bonus for big man Myles Johnson to return to complete his graduate engineering degree because of what he does for the interior defense.
It’s uncertain what will happen with Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jacquez, Jules Bernard and Cody Riley. Freshman wing Peyton Watson could be ready to star if he’s back, but he could be ready to be drafted if he’s gone for good to the NBA Draft. Wing Jaylen Clark is ready to grab any job on the perimeter that opens, save for Campbell’s.
The Bruins also recruited two top-20 prospects: wing Amari Bailey, the nation’s No. 2 player according to 247 Sports, and big man Adem Bona, who is ranked 16th. And for development, there’s point guard Dylan Andrews, the No. 39 prospect who could learn plenty from Campbell.
3. Kansas
2022 finish: 32-6, NCAA championship game
Overview: The safest bet in the world has to be projecting KU basketball for a top-3 finish in any college season. Since 2010, KU has been a No. 1 seed seven times, a No. 2 seed four times and lower than either just once, in 2019, when the Jayhawks fell all the way to a No. 4.
It’s not just history, though. Forward Jalen Wilson is gifted enough to be the program’s next All-American, and such young reserves as Zach Clemence and Joseph Yesufu are ready to contribute if playing time becomes available, as expected.
KU’s recruiting class includes four top-50 prospects, three of them ranked as 5-star prospects.
Of course, all of this presumes the NCAA doesn’t come down so hard on Kansas from its three-year-old infractions case that there is a roster exodus in the offseason.
DECOURCY: Ochai Agbaji catches fire in Final Four as KU runs away from ‘Nova
4. Michigan
2022 finish: 19-15, NCAA Sweet 16
The nice NCAA Tournament run made this past season feel better than it was, but the intermittent struggles can’t diminish how capable this team’s young players are. Forward Moussa Diabate and wing Caleb Houstan are just talented enough as freshmen that NBA teams might be interested, but just far enough from being ready to be drafted or fully valued that they could benefit enormously by playing another year.
The injury to Devante Jones at the end of the season revealed how capable Frankie Collins is, which could give the Wolverines two talented point guards.
The Wolverines could afford to lose one of the two frosh, but probably need to hang on to former All-American big man Hunter Dickinson. He could have a Kofi Cockburn-style year in 2022-23 if he takes another lap.
5. North Carolina
2022 finish: 28-9, NCAA championship game
Overview: The one Tar Heels regular who isn’t eligible to return is stretch-4 Brady Manek. He has been the most important component of the program’s extraordinary late-season surge, and he would need to be adequately replaced. Manek has allowed the Heels to move away from the two-big approach favored by previous Carolina regimes and extend opposing defenses toward their breaking point.
But another season could help Caleb Love become more consistent, and RJ Davis would return with experience as a point guard and the certainty of preparing to play that position fulltime. With the success Manek enjoyed, it would not be a surprise to see the Heels look for another top transfer. And when Carolina wants a player, that’s not good news for other programs.
DECOURCY: Love’s all-time classic shot caps an all-time Final Four classic
6. Arkansas
2022 finish: 28-9, NCAA Elite Eight
Overview: The great JD Notae has a year of eligibility available to him and little apparent NBA Draft buzz, but he’s also 23 years old and might want to see what’s out there. If there were certainty of his return, this ranking would be higher, without a doubt. Without him, there should be enough – given the spectacular recruiting success – for another deep NCAA run and a battle for the championship of the Southeastern Conference. One has to believe big man Jaylin Williams is back, because he needs to continue to expand his offensive game. If he develops in the offseason as a 3-point shooter – and we’ve seen dozens of players make such improvements – he will have a shot at the NBA dream. And Arkansas will have a shot at its first Final Four since 1995.
MORE: Arkansas takes out tourney’s top seed Gonzaga
7. Houston
2022 finish: 32-6, NCAA Elite Eight
Overview: Who knows what might have been with the Cougars this season if Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark had not been injured near midseason? Might they have been in New Orleans this weekend? They did such a fabulous job without those two, but the firepower necessary to get over the hump into the Final Four again wasn’t there. Looks like it will be back, along with freshman stud Jarace Walker, whose physicality should fit right into Kelvin Sampson’s defense-first philosophy.
8. Duke
2022 finish: 32-6, NCAA Final Four
Overview: If you thought you were rid of the Blue Devils because Coach K was done with you, well, sorry, here comes the army of elite prep prospects recruited by new coach John Scheyer: three top-15 prospects, all to boost a frontcourt that will need it with the team’s three rotation big men gone. Jeremy Roach has proven he can be the point guard on a successful team, even if he’s not the ideal creator. The Devils are going to need someone, though, with the demonstrated ability to excel as a deep shooter.
DECOURCY: Coach K suffers agonizing defeat in final Final Four
9. Gonzaga
2022 finish: 28-4, NCAA Sweet 16
Overview: Two-time All-American Drew Timme is another college big man who might be able to do better (financially and developmentally) with another season of college hoops, and that would be a massive boost for the next edition of Zags. Without him, Mark Few might face his greatest rebuilding challenge since 2014, the last time they failed to reach the Sweet 16. Recruiting for the 2022 class has yet to yield an elite prospect, but remember – this is a prime transfer destination.
10. Villanova
2022 finish: 30-7, NCAA Final Four
Overview: Villanova likes to point out that freshman-year success with the Wildcats is less rare than some believe, and such players as Jalen Brunson and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are strong evidence in support of that case. The Wildcats will need a lot from top-20 prospect Cam Whitmore, a small forward who’ll bring a level of dynamism that is rare even among top college hoops prospects. A good portion of the frontcourt should be intact, and another big factor will be the recovery of wing Justin Moore from the achilles injury he suffered in the NCAA Tournament.
11. TCU
2022 finish: 21-13, NCAA round of 32
12. Creighton
2022 finish: 23-12, NCAA round of 32
13. Arizona
2022 finish: 33-4, NCAA Sweet 16
14. Baylor
2022 finish: 27-7, NCAA Round of 32
15. Michigan State
2022 finish: 23-13, NCAA round of 32
16. Illinois
2022 finish: 23-10, NCAA Round of 32
17. Tennessee
2022 finish: 27-8, NCAA Round of 32
18. Memphis
2022 finish: 22-11, NCAA Round of 32
19. Alabama
2022 finish: 19-14, NCAA Round of 32
20. Virginia
2022 finish: 21-14, NIT quarterfinals
21. Purdue
2022 finish: 29-8, NCAA Sweet 16
22. Xavier
2022 finish: 23-13, NIT champions
23. Ohio State
2022 finish: 20-12, NCAA Round of 32
24. Notre Dame
2022 finish: 24-11, NCAA Round of 32
25. Providence
2022 finish: 27-6, NCAA Sweet 16