Some things are worth the wait, and baseball absolutely is one of those things.
With Opening Day almost here, a friendly reminder from your friends at The Sporting News: No one knows anything.
Did anyone think Atlanta would win the World Series after Ronald Acuña Jr. blew out his ACL? What about the 107-win Giants, who were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs? Or what about the return of Tony LaRussa, steering the White Sox to a great season? Did anyone really think the Diamondbacks would lose over 100 games?
(Well, yeah.)
MORE: TSN’s projections, predictions for 2022 MLB season
Baseball is a fickle, heartless wench — a rudderless ship of a sport that’s solely designed to drive sane men cruel. But that’s why we love it — and that’s why we will try to make sense of it with the first Power Rankings of the 2022 season.
The usual suspects are at or around the top: The defending champion Braves jockey with the Dodgers for the top spot, as the Yankees and Rays take two of the top 10 spots in the early rankings of this year. At the bottom, you’ll also find the typical cellar-dwelling squads: Abandon all hope, ye Orioles fans who enter here.
So here are this year’s Opening Day Power Rankings. And, as always, do not @ us.
MLB Power Rankings
1. Dodgers
2021 record: 106-56
2022 TSN projections: 98-64
The Dodgers are still the best, deepest and most well-rounded team in baseball. That’s not something that’s going to change this season.
Sure, they have one World Series to show for their recent success, and it came in a pandemic-shortened season. But there’s a reason they’re consistently in the dance and a threat to take it all: Their deep, deep farm system and their timely, always active front office help to keep them at the top of the league.
This offseason, the Dodgers signed Freddie Freeman, lengthening their already deep lineup, and traded for Craig Kimbrel, solidifying the back end of the bullpen.
They’ll stick here all season, unless something goes very, very sideways.
2. Braves
2021 record: 88-73
2022 TSN projections: 92-70
The 2022 World Series champions would have caught a lot of flak for simply letting Freddie Freeman walk, but having the Plan B of Matt Olson (5.0 fWAR in 2021) was a stroke of genius.
Atlanta will still be in the World Series repeat hunt this year, as they’re getting back Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna to pair with Olson in the lineup.
Outside of the lineup, the bullpen is a tad better with Kenley Jansen tacked on, and their rotation should be good enough, even in an improved NL East (and the Nationals).
3. Blue Jays
2021 record: 91-71
2022 TSN projections: 91-71
The Blue Jays finished on a 22-9 streak at the end of 2021, which was more of a sign of things to come than a flash in the pan.
Toronto isn’t hiding from contention this season: Adding Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi to the rotation gives them quality and depth and, arguably, the best rotation in the AL East.
Trading for Matt Chapman will absolutely help on defense, and there’s hope that he can revert to his ascending offensive self from earlier in his career. If he doesn’t, there’s plenty of offensive firepower in the Jays lineup to mash with the best teams in the AL as they make a push for October.
4. White Sox
2021 record: 93-69
2022 TSN projections: 94-68
The White Sox have a really good lineup, their rotation is solid and the bullpen should still be really good even with the departure of Craig Kimbrel.
Still, they need some things to go right to reach their ceiling:
- Dallas Keuchel needs to bounce back and have a much better year than his 5.28 ERA in 2021;
- Eloy Jimenez has to stay healthy to give them enough thump in the lineup;
In the meantime, they’ll have to navigate the Lance Lynn injury, but the White Sox are every bit as good as they were in 2021, and they may even be better this year.
5. Brewers
2021 record: 95-67
2022 TSN projections: 83-79
The Crew had a sneaky-good 95-win season in 2021, and they’re still probably the best team in the NL Central. So much of their success is going to again rely on how good Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are.
We all know the Brewers can pitch, but the lineup around Christian Yelich is the question that’ll persist all season: Are the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe enough to give their potentially elite staff some run support? On paper, maybe not, but they’re a better offensive team with those two guys in the lineup this year.
6. Yankees
2021 record: 92-70
2022 TSN projections: 86-76
Say what you want about the Yankees’ offseason moves (or lack thereof), but they’re still a good team on paper. The “on-paper” thing is the important part here.
While the Yankees still boast one of the AL’s better lineups, they’re going to need to stave off the injury bug in order to reach their full potential. Josh Donaldson, the Bombers’ marquee acquisition this offseason, is no stranger to the IL. Neither are Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
MORE: Why the Yankees will be better than expected in 2022
Entering the 2022 season, the Yankees might lead MLB in “IFs” …
- IF Josh Donaldson/Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy,
- IF Luis Severino is a good No. 2 coming back from a few injury-plagued seasons,
- IF Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton can hold it together at the back end of the bullpen,
… then there’s a good chance they’re a 95-win team again. IF not, then it’ll be the same song and dance at this point next offseason.
7. Rays
2021 record: 100-62
2022 TSN projections: 87-75
The Rays should still be able to pitch, but with Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena at the top, they can hit, too.
Tampa Bay will have to work through the season with the very, very slim hope that Tyler Glasnow pitches in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery in August of last year.
Still, they’ll look to Shane McClanahan to build on a stellar rookie season, something that will likely be a given considering Tampa Bay’s history with pitchers.
8. Phillies
2021 record: 82-80
2022 TSN projections: 86-76
How do you spell “Phillies?” “R-A-K-E.”
Maybe we’re higher on the Phillies than some, but a lineup that features Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Nicholas Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber means bombs away.
That offense should more than support their rotation, and a remade bullpen that features Corey Knebel at the back end could be serviceable enough to lock down games when needed.
Still, the Phillies are hoping to bludgeon teams in order to win games. Not a bad strategy, after all.
9. Mets
2021 record: 77-85
2022 TSN projections: 87-75
The Mets are a tremendously well-balanced team. Their biggest rival, though, is the injured list.
Already, Jacob deGrom is going to miss more than a month with a stress reaction in his shoulder, while prized free agent get Max Scherzer is dealing with a balky hamstring.
When healthy — if healthy — the Mets have the best 1-2 rotation punch in baseball. That’s not really up for debate. Their lineup, which now features Starling Marte, is going to be very good, though they’ll need a big-time bounce-back season from Francisco Lindor.
10. Padres
2021 record: 79-83
2022 TSN projections: 85-77
San Diego is a just-add-water championship contender, and that water turned out to be manager Bob Melvin. And Melvin took Oakland lefty Sean Manaea with him.
The Dads are going to have to navigate the injury to San Diego’s favorite son in the early goings: Fernando Tatis Jr. underwent offseason wrist surgery that’ll keep him sidelined for a few months.
Still, they should have just enough offense and more than enough quality starting pitching to keep them afloat, especially with a pretty weak first month of the schedule.
FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Middle of the Pack
11. Astros
2021 record: 95-67
2022 TSN projections: 91-71
The Astros will have to deal with the departure of Carlos Correa, but the team is very high on shortstop Jeremy Pena. No pressure, kid.
12. Red Sox
2021 record: 92-70
2022 TSN projections: 86-76
The Red Sox made a surprising run to the ALCS last year, but they’ll need equal amounts of magic to make it through the early part of the season without Chris Sale, who is dealing with a rib injury. Still, they should be in the AL East hunt if everything goes right.
13. Twins
2021 record: 73-89
2022 TSN projections: 77-85
The Twins made good improvements this offseason: They added Sonny Gray and Carlos Correa while getting out from underneath the Josh Donaldson contract. The AL Central should be pretty meh outside of Chicago, so the Twins have a legit shot at a wild card.
14. Cubs
2021 record: 71-91
2022 TSN projections: 75-87
The Cubs have had one of the most confusing stretches in baseball since last year. They traded away three pillars of their 2016 championship team — Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez — because they weren’t in on contract extensions. Instead, they spent money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki, proving that they’re not exactly rebuilding. Just weird.
MORE: Fantasy baseball cheat sheet for 2022: Rankings, top prospects, sleepers
15. Giants
2021 record: 107-55
2022 TSN projections: 90-72
There’s a non-zero chance that the Giants replicate their franchise history-making season. Don’t expect that to happen, though, even with the additions of Carlos Rodon and Joc Pederson.
16. Cardinals
2021 record: 90-72
2022 TSN projections: 90-72
The Cardinals had a pretty quiet offseason, signing Steven Matz before the lockout (pissing off Mets owner Steve Cohen in the process). The veteran-heavy team could be in the mix in a weak NL Central, but they’re going to have to rely on an extra serving of Devil Magic to win it.
17. Rangers
2021 record: 60-102
2022 TSN projections: 80-82
The Rangers jumped into the free-agent pool and made a few big splashes this offseason, signing Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to massive deals. This is a team that should hit and be a pesky team in the AL West. We’ll see how Jon Gray acclimates to not-Coors-Field this year.
18. Tigers
2021 record: 77-85
2022 TSN projections: 81-81
The Tigers are going to be an intriguing watch this year: They’re going to feature a very good mix of proven veterans and rookies who will go through growing pains (or actual pain, in the case of Riley Greene). The additions of Javy Baez, Austin Meadows and Eduardo Rodriguez should tell you they feel like they’re closer to competing than others may believe.
19. Angels
2021 record: 77-85
2022 TSN projections: 80-82
Hey, the Angels signed a starting pitcher! Granted, he’s a guy who’s barely pitched over the past two seasons.
Noah Syndergaard could rediscover his former form and be an excellent one-year addition to the team. In the words of J.P. from “Angels in the Outfield” — Hey, it could happen.
If the Angels flounder and “Thor” regains form, then Syndergaard could be an expensive rental come the trade deadline. Seems like a win for both sides.
20. Mariners
2021 record: 90-72
2022 TSN projections: 72-90
There’s certainly a disconnect between the official TSN projections and what’s here. The Mariners are a massive “What if?” team this year, but the deal for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker feels like one of the few trades of Jerry Dipoto era that could have actual ramifications on the big league squad. Adding Robbie Ray, 2021 AL Cy Young winner, certainly helps, too.
Seattle’s best days are still ahead, as they wait for their farm system to produce. That starts on Opening Day, with top prospect Julio Rodriguez making his big league debut.
MORE: Fantasy baseball draft strategy: Tips, advice on how to win your league
Bottom of the barrel
21. Rockies
2021 record: 74-87
2022 TSN projections: 75-87
The Rockies still made the most baffling signing of the offseason, bringing in Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million deal. The Rockies should hit, but that rotation is still going to be average-to-bad.
22. Nationals
2021 record: 65-97
2022 TSN projections: 73-89
Hard to see where the wins will come from for the Nats this year. Juan Soto is great, but he can’t do it alone.
23. Diamondbacks
2021 record: 52-110
2022 TSN projections: 71-91
The Diamondbacks did well to extend Ketel Marte, and that’s about it. Their offseason was quiet, though they’ll have some viable trade chips come the trade deadline. (Thinking about the trade deadline before Opening Day? Sorry, D-backs fans.)
24. Marlins
2021 record: 67-95
2022 TSN projections: 80-82
The Marlins’ rotation could be pretty good, but their lineup is still … not, even with the additions of Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia.
25. Royals
2021 record: 74-88
2022 TSN projections: 81-81
You’re going to hear a lot about Bobby Witt Jr. this season, regardless of whether he’s on the major league roster. Unfortunately, Witt won’t make up for a lot of the team’s deficiencies in the meantime.
26. Reds
2021 record: 83-79
2022 TSN projections: 72-90
At one point, it looked like the Reds were sneaky contenders in the NL Central. Now, it looks like they’re half-in-half-out approach is going to get them stuck in baseball purgatory.
27. Guardians
2021 record: 80-82
2022 TSN projections: 67-95
Shane Bieber can’t do it by himself, though it looks like Cleveland wants him to. The Guardians added nothing this offseason — literally nothing — and they seemingly want to ship out José Ramirez. Tito and Co. deserve better.
28. Athletics
2021 record: 86-76
2022 TSN projections: 64-98
It’s really a shame to see the group of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Mark Canha not win anything of true value before the A’s broke it down. Wash, rinse, repeat in Oakland.
29. Pirates
2021 record: 61-101
2022 TSN projections: 66-96
The Pirates signed Jose Quintana and Daniel Vogelbach this offseason — two guys who probably won’t be on the roster come Aug. 1. That should give you an idea of how out of it Pittsburgh could be this year.
30. Orioles
2021 record: 52-110
2022 TSN projections: 70-92
Baltimore’s best days are still ahead, with a top-ranked farm system preparing to produce MLB talent, including wunderkind catcher Adley Rutschman. For now, not much to get excited about.
At least O’s fans have Trey Mancini. Well, until he’s traded.