Jayson Tatum finished the regular season sixth in MVP voting, was named a member of the All-NBA First Team and won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award a little over a week ago.
So why isn’t he playing like “The Man” for the Celtics?
Tatum hasn’t been bad, per se. He made a nice contribution in Game 1 despite shooting poorly, setting a new record for most assists in an NBA Finals debut (13). And he led the Celtics with 28 points on 19 field goal attempts in Game 2.
But there was at least some chatter before this series started that he could be the best player in the Finals. Stephen Curry has blown him out of the water.
| 2022 NBA Finals | Tatum | Curry |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.0 | 31.5 |
| Field goal pct. | 30.6% | 45.7% |
| True shooting pct. | 46.9% | 62.0% |
| Turnovers | 6 | 4 |
MORE: How Curry is picking apart the Celtics’ defense
If you’ve thought that Tatum’s impact hasn’t seemed to be as big as his box score statistics suggest, then you’d be right. Despite the noncompetitive nature of Game 2, only seven points have separated these teams thus far. Tatum is a Finals-worst minus-20 in the series. Curry’s plus-15 is one of the best numbers of any player.
Can’t take too much from a two-game sample of plus/minus, but Jayson Tatum’s -20 is the worst in the Finals. pic.twitter.com/hwmPTXVyrr
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) June 7, 2022
If the Celtics are going to win this series, then the chasm between those two players cannot be so wide. Curry has raised his game to a transcendent level in two games. Everything in the Warriors’ offense has revolved around his shooting prowess. Meanwhile, Tatum has been worse than what he was in the regular season or previous rounds.
What makes Tatum’s struggles even more worrisome is how the Warriors have gotten away with defending him. In the Western Conference Finals, Steve Kerr did not believe that Curry and Jordan Poole could hold up if switched onto Luka Doncic. They showed on ball screens to avoid giving up that matchup.
That same belief hasn’t held true against Tatum. Kerr has willingly switched weak defenders onto him — and it’s worked.
Curry is not a bad defender, but Tatum should easily be able to go right through him because of the size advantage that he has. On a few possessions, he has done exactly that. Tatum has also used that size to shoot easily over Curry for pull-up 3-pointers.
Those plays haven’t happened enough, though. Tatum has been far too passive against all of his mismatches, passing out or settling for contested midrange shots. Those aren’t great looks for him. He’s shooting a putrid 4-of-22 on 2-pointers.
Tatum’s rim numbers have been bad, but his midrange numbers have been even worse. He’s made only one in this entire series, an extremely tough falling fadeaway over Gary Payton II’s outstretched arm. Poole is the worst defender in this series. Tatum can’t settle for a contested elbow jumper against him or Kevon Looney.
That passivity is also evidenced in Tatum’s driving numbers. He’s averaging 12.0 drives per game in the Finals, down from 13.7 in the other rounds of the NBA Playoffs. Tatum has speed and size advantages over the guys that the Warriors are throwing at him. This is the biggest stage of the NBA, and he has to dominate the game rather than playing like a role player. He can’t allow guys like Nemanja Bjelica to shut him down.
Yes, Nemanja Bjelica. You read that right.
Bjelica wasn’t supposed to be able to play in this series because of his defensive limitations. He got some rotational minutes in Game 2, and he held Tatum to zero points when switched onto him. When you can make a mixtape of Bjelica shutting down Tatum in the Finals, you know that things aren’t going the way that they’re supposed to for the Celtics.
Ball security has also been a major issue for Tatum throughout the postseason. He can’t let Looney rip the ball away from him while bringing it up. He has wilted under Draymond Green’s ball pressure, rushing reads and making poor passes that have no chance of getting through. Turnovers have been the difference in this series, and the Warriors maintaining a 30-26 edge has been due partly to Tatum’s sloppiness.
Tatum wasn’t the reason that the Celtics lost Game 2. But he wasn’t the reason that they won Game 1, and he simply has not been good enough in this series. He has floated through parts of these games.
If the Celtics want to extend this past five games, then Tatum needs to take some notes from his opponent and force the Warriors to stay sleepless at night thinking of ways to stop him, as Curry has. The Warriors are an elite opponent. Mediocre isn’t going to cut it.