With two matches remaining in the 2022/23 Champions League group stage, there’s still plenty to be determined.
Of the 16 knockout stage places up for grabs, only five have been secured, with giants Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City joined by white-hot Italian side Napoli and shock Belgian contender Club Brugge.
Barcelona are one of the surprise big clubs teetering on the edge of Champions League elimination, while the status of fellow Spanish club Atletico Madrid also hangs in the balance. Elsewhere, in some groups, the competition remains totally wide open.
The Sporting News brings you a full look at what each team still in contention needs to do to secure advancement to the knockout stage, and for those already eliminated, what they need to do to find their way to a Europa League place.
MORE: How Ballon d’Or winner Karim Benzema escaped Cristiano Ronaldo’s Real Madrid shadow
Who has advanced to Champions League knockout stage?
While five teams have secured advancement to the knockout stage, no group has yet officially been solidified, with at least one spot still up for grabs in all groups.
In fact, three groups still have yet to officially name even one knockout stage participant, with things mostly wide open with two matches to go.
| Group | 1st Place (Group Winners) |
2nd Place (Group Runners-up) |
|---|---|---|
| A | Napoli* | TBD |
| B | Club Brugge* | TBD |
| C | Bayern Munich* | TBD |
| D | TBD | TBD |
| E | TBD | TBD |
| F | Real Madrid* | TBD |
| G | Man City* | TBD |
| H | TBD | TBD |
* Current group standing reflected. Club has mathematically clinched a Round of 16 berth, but placement (1st or 2nd) has not yet been determined.
Champions League Group A scenarios
Group A standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Napoli | 4-0-0 | +13 | 12 |
| 2. | Liverpool | 3-0-1 | +6 | 9 |
| 3. | Ajax | 1-0-3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4. | Rangers | 0-0-4 | -15 | 0 |
Group A scenarios
Napoli have obliterated everyone standing in their way amongst Group A. Liverpool have nearly clinched, and are “dormie” as they say in golf — any points from the Reds or dropped points by Ajax would see Liverpool through. Rangers are out of the running for a knockout stage spot but could see their way into the Europa League if they can make a late pass into third.
Knockout round clinched: Napoli
Knockout round eliminated: Rangers
Liverpool clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- A single point over the last two matches (@ Ajax, vs. Napoli)
- Ajax draw or loss vs. Rangers
Ajax clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Wins in both of last two matches (vs. Liverpool, @ Rangers) by 2 or more goals AND Liverpool loss vs. Napoli
- Wins in both of last two matches (vs. Liverpool, @ Rangers) by 1 goal while scoring 3+ goals AND Liverpool loss vs. Napoli
- Wins in both of last two matches (vs. Liverpool, @ Rangers) by 1 goal AND Liverpool loss vs. Napoli AND make up 10-goal differential deficit to Liverpool
Ajax clinch Europa League spot with one of the following:
- 4 total points across final two matches
- Ajax win vs. Rangers in final round
- 1 total point across final two matches AND Rangers loss vs. Napoli
Rangers clinch Europa League spot with one of the following:
- Rangers win vs. Napoli AND Ajax loss or draw vs. Liverpool
- Rangers draw vs. Napoli AND Rangers win vs. Ajax AND Ajax loss vs. Liverpool
- Ajax loss vs. Liverpool AND Rangers win vs. Ajax by 5 or more goals
Group B standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Club Brugge | 3-1-0 | +7 | 10 |
| 2. | Porto | 2-0-2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3. | Atletico Madrid | 1-1-2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4. | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-0-3 | -4 | 3 |
Group B scenarios
Club Brugge were not expected to be crushing Group B like this, but here they sit, needing just a single point to secure advancement to the knockout round. Things are still wide open below them, however, with all three teams vying for the second spot in the knockout stage. Porto hold the advantage, but they do not have a match remaining against struggling Bayer Leverkusen and therefore must keep the other two below them at arms length.
Knockout round clinched: Club Brugge
Porto clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win vs. Club Brugge AND Atletico Madrid loss or draw vs. Bayer Leverkusen
- Win vs. Atletico Madrid in final round
- Draw in both of the remaining two matches (@ Club Brugge, vs. Atletico Madrid) AND Atletico Madrid draw or loss vs. Bayer Leverkusen
- Draw in either of the remaining two matches AND Atletico Madrid loss vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Atletico Madrid clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Wins in both final two matches (vs. Bayer Leverkusen, @ Porto)
- Win vs. Porto AND Porto loss vs. Club Brugge
- Draw in final two matches AND Bayer Leverkusen draw or loss vs. Club Brugge
Bayer Leverkusen clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in final two matches (@ Atletico Madrid, vs. Club Brugge) AND Porto loss in both final two matches AND Atletico Madrid dropped points in final two matches
Bayer Leverkusen are eliminated with any dropped points. As Atletico Madrid and Porto both play each other, and wins by either team eliminates Bayer outright, a draw would be the best possible result. This would put Porto at 7 points, which would be Bayer’s ceiling with dropped points in any match, but Porto defeated Bayer twice, meaning they lose the tiebreaker.
Group C standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Bayern Munich | 4-0-0 | +11 | 12 |
| 2. | Inter Milan | 2-1-1 | +1 | 7 |
| 3. | Barcelona | 1-1-2 | +1 | 4 |
| 4. | Viktoria Plzen | 0-0-4 | -13 | 0 |
Group C scenarios
In what was dubbed the “Group of Death” for this year’s Champions League, Barcelona’s lives are hanging by a thread. The Blaugrana have not yet been eliminated from competition, but it’s looking like that could be coming sooner or later. They need points as well as a lot of outside help thanks to a pair of poor results against their chief rivals Inter Milan.
Knockout round clinched: Bayern Munich
Knockout round eliminated: Viktoria Plzen
Inter Milan clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in either final two matches (vs. Viktoria Plzen, @ Bayern Munich)
- Draw in either final two matches AND any dropped points by Barcelona in final two matches
- Loss in both of final two matches AND Barcelona loss in either of final two matches
Barcelona clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (vs. Bayern Munich, @ Viktoria Plzen) AND Inter gain 1 or 0 points in final two matches
- 4 points in final two matches AND Inter lose final two matches
Barcelona clinch Europa League spot with one of the following:
- Win in either of final two matches
- Draw in both of final two matches
- Viktoria Plzen loss in either of final two matches
- Loss in both of final two matches AND Viktoria Plzen dropped points in either of final two matches
Group D standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Tottenham | 2-1-1 | +1 | 7 |
| 2. | Sporting CP | 2-0-2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3. | Marseille | 2-0-2 | +2 | 6 |
| 4. | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-1-2 | -3 | 4 |
Group D scenarios
Group D is one of the most hotly contested groups, with everyone in the table still in reasonable contention for a knockout round place. Thanks to the remaining matchups, only Marseille do not control their own destiny, as they lost twice to Sporting, giving the Portuguese side the tiebreaker edge. Frankfurt play both teams in front of them, meaning a pair of wins sees them through, but a loss in either game sees them officially out.
Knockout round clinched: NONE
Tottenham clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win vs. Sporting CP
- Draw vs. Sporting CP AND win vs. Marseille
- Loss vs. Sporting CP AND win vs. Marseille AND Frankfurt dropped points in any of final two matches
- Draw in both final two matches AND Frankfurt beat either Sporting CP or Marseille but not both
- Loss vs. Sporting CP AND draw vs. Marseille AND Marseille loss or draw vs. Eintracht Frankfurt AND Eintracht Frankfurt loss or draw vs. Sporting CP
Sporting CP clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (@ Tottenham, vs. Eintracht Frankfurt)
- Matching Marseille’s results AND any dropped points by Eintracht Frankfurt
- Win vs. Tottenham in final round AND Marseille draw in both final matches
Marseille clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Bettering Sporting CP’s results AND any dropped points by Eintracht Frankfurt
- Win vs. Tottenham in final round AND Sporting CP draw in both final matches
A Marseille draw vs. Tottenham and loss to Eintracht Frankfurt would see them out regardless, as the final result of Sporting CP vs. Eintracht Frankfurt in Round 6 would see one of those two teams overtake Marseille no matter the result.
Eintracht Frankfurt clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (vs. Marseille, @ Sporting CP)
- Win vs. Marseille AND draw vs. Sporting CP AND Sporting CP loss or draw vs. Tottenham
- Win vs. Sporting CP AND draw vs. Marseille AND Marseille loss or draw vs. Tottenham
Defeat in either of Frankfurt’s final two matches would see them eliminated, as the team they lose to would be officially out of reach, and they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tottenham.
Group E standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chelsea | 2-1-1 | +4 | 7 |
| 2. | RB Salzburg | 1-3-0 | +1 | 6 |
| 3. | AC Milan | 1-1-2 | -3 | 4 |
| 4. | Dinamo Zagreb | 1-1-2 | -2 | 4 |
Group E scenarios
Like Group D above, Group E is hotly contested, with all three teams still in the hunt. In fact, all four teams still control their own destiny with victory in both their final two matches, including last-placed Dinamo Zagreb.
Knockout round clinched: NONE
Chelsea clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- At least 4 points over final two matches (@ RB Salzburg, vs. Dinamo Zagreb)
- Win vs. RB Salzburg AND Dinamo Zagreb loss or draw vs. AC Milan
- Win vs. Dinamo Zagreb
- 2 points over final two matches AND RB Salzburg loss or draw vs. AC Milan AND AC Milan loss or draw in either of final two matches
There are more possibilities for Chelsea to advance should they only collect one point across the final two matches, but those involve a host of tiebreakers coming into play.
RB Salzburg clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win both of final two matches (vs. Chelsea, @ AC Milan)
- Win vs. Chelsea AND draw in Dinamo Zagreb vs. AC Milan
- Win vs. AC Milan AND Dinamo Zagreb loss or draw vs. AC Milan
- Draw in both of final two matches AND both AC Milan and Dinamo Zagreb lose at least once OR
- Draw in one of final two matches AND Dinamo Zagreb does not win out AND AC Milan does not win either match
AC Milan clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (@ Dinamo Zagreb, vs. RB Salzburg)
- 4 points in remaining two matches AND RB Salzburg draw or loss to Chelsea
- Win vs. RB Salzburg AND loss vs. Dinamo Zagreb by one goal margin AND Dinamo Zagreb loss to Chelsea
Dinamo Zagreb clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Wins in both of final two matches (vs. AC Milan, @ Chelsea)
- Win vs. AC Milan AND draw vs. Chelsea AND RB Salzburg loss in both remaining matches
- Draw vs. AC Milan AND win vs. Chelsea AND Chelsea draw or loss vs. RB Salzburg AND AC Milan draw or loss vs. RB Salzburg
Dinamo Zagreb do not possess the tiebreaker over RB Salzburg.
Group F standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Real Madrid | 3-1-0 | +6 | 10 |
| 2. | RB Leipzig | 2-0-2 | -1 | 6 |
| 3. | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-2-1 | +2 | 5 |
| 4. | Celtic | 0-1-3 | -7 | 1 |
Group F scenarios
RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk are fighting for the final knockout stage spot behind Real Madrid, who have clinched a place. Celtic are not out of the running for a Europa League spot, but they have a lot of ground to make up and need outside help.
Knockout round clinched: Real Madrid
Knockout round eliminated: Celtic
RB Leipzig clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win vs. Real Madrid AND Shakhtar Donetsk loss vs. Celtic OR RB Leipzig draw vs. Shakhtar Donestk
- Win vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
- Draw vs. Shakhtar Donestk AND Shakhtar Donetsk loss to Celtic
Shakhtar Donestk clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both remaining matches (@ Celtic, vs. RB Leipzig)
- Win vs. RB Leipzig AND RB Leipzig loss or draw vs. Real Madrid
- Win vs. Celtic AND draw vs. RB Leipzig AND RB Leipzig loss or draw vs. Real Madrid
Celtic clinch Europa League spot with one of the following:
- Win in both remaining matches (vs. Shakhtar Donetsk, @ Real Madrid)
- Win vs. Shakhtar Donetsk AND draw vs. Real Madrid AND Shakhtar Donetsk loss vs. RB Leipzig
Group G standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Man City | 3-1-0 | +10 | 10 |
| 2. | Borussia Dortmund | 2-1-1 | +5 | 7 |
| 3. | Sevilla | 0-2-2 | -7 | 2 |
| 4. | FC Copenhagen | 0-2-2 | -8 | 2 |
Group G scenarios
Group G is all but determined, as while Sevilla and FC Copenhagen are not yet eliminated, they both require wins in their final two matches plus a collapse from Dortmund to find their way through.
Knockout round clinched: Man City
Knockout round eliminated: NONE
Borussia Dortmund clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in either of final two matches (vs. Man City, @ FC Copenhagen)
- Draw in both of final two matches
- Draw in either of final two matches AND Sevilla does not win out OR FC Copenhagen loss or draw vs. Man City OR Dortmund loss to FC Copenhagen by fewer than 3 goals
Sevilla clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (vs. FC Copenhagen, @ Man City) AND Borussia Dortmund do not collect a single point
Sevilla lose the tiebreaker with Borussia Dortmund and therefore must beat the German side on points.
FC Copenhagen clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both of final two matches (@ Sevilla, vs. Borussia Dortmund) AND Borussia Dortmund draw or loss vs. Man City
Group H standings
| Rank | Club | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | PSG | 2-2-0 | +3 | 8 |
| 2. | Benfica | 2-2-0 | +3 | 8 |
| 3. | Juventus | 1-0-3 | -2 | 3 |
| 4. | Maccabi Haifa | 1-0-3 | -4 | 3 |
Group H scenarios
Group H looks more open than it truly is. PSG and Benfica require just two points to officially secure a place, and even one point would go a long way towards making things secure. The bottom two sides require winning, plus outside help, and they both have games against PSG remaining.
Knockout round clinched: NONE
PSG clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- At least two points in remaining two matches (vs. Maccabi Haifa, @ Juventus)
- Draw vs. Maccabi Haifa AND Juventus loss or draw vs. Benfica
- Loss vs. Maccabi Haifa by 1 goal AND Juventus loss or draw vs. Benfica
- Draw vs. Juventus AND Maccabi Haifa loss or draw vs. Benfica
Benfica clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- At least two points in remaining two matches (vs. Juventus, @ Maccabi Haifa)
- Draw vs. Juventus AND Maccabi Haifa loss or draw vs. PSG
- Draw vs. Maccabi Haifa AND Juventus loss or draw vs. PSG
Juventus clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both remaining games (@ Benfica, vs. PSG) AND either PSG or Benfica lose to Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa clinch knockout round spot with one of the following:
- Win in both remaining games (@ PSG, vs. Benfica) AND either PSG or Benfica lose to Benfica
- Win in both remaining games (@ PSG, vs. Benfica), including 2+ goal win vs. PSG AND PSG draw vs. Juventus
Champions League group tiebreaker rules
Every goal matters in the UEFA Champions League because it could come into play in the tiebreakers should teams finish even on points at the end of the group stage (three points for a win, one for a draw, none for a loss).
If two or more teams are tied on points in the group standings, there is a series of UEFA Champions League group stage tiebreakers outlined in the official tournament regulations:
- points obtained in group matches played among teams in question
- superior goal difference from group matches played among teams in question
- goals scored in group matches played among teams in question
- superior goal difference in all group matches
- goals scored in all group matches
- away goals scored in all group matches
- wins in all group matches
- away wins in all group matches
- disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards
- UEFA club coefficient
One quirk to the tiebreaker rules: if there are three or more teams deadlocked on points and tiebreakers No. 1-3 help to separate only one of those teams, then tiebreakers No. 1-3 are reapplied to any remaining teams that are still tied before moving on to tiebreakers No. 4-10.