As the 2022/23 Premier League season enters its final stages, the fight to secure top-flight survival looks set to go all the way to the last weekend of the campaign.
As of April 26, only eight points separate Leicester City in 18th and Crystal Palace in 12th, meaning nine teams can consider themselves at least at risk of being dragged into the drop zone. Chelsea, by the way, are only two points ahead of Palace.
The majority of teams in relegation trouble have opted to change manager this season, with Nottingham Forest and West Ham the only exceptions, as they are sticking by their bosses, Steve Cooper and David Moyes.
There are certain to be a few twists before the end of May, with Premier League regulars Everton, Leicester City, and Southampton still in the mix to be dragged down into the EFL Championship.
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Premier League relegation odds 2022/23
Despite surprisingly drawing at Arsenal on April 21, Southampton are still rated as the most likely team to be relegated from the Premier League this season, though that could begin to change should they find a way to beat Bournemouth.
The next club deemed most in danger of suffering the drop is Everton (63% chances of going down, according to projections by FiveThirtyEight), and the Toffees have a tough match against in-form Newcastle.
Premier League table: The bottom nine
*Standings correct as of April 26, 2023
| Place | Team | PTS | GP | Goals | Goal Diff. |
Next game | Relegation probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12. | Crystal Palace | 37 | 33 | 31 | -11 | vs. WHU, April 29 | <1% |
| 13. | Wolves | 37 | 33 | 29 | -15 | @ BRI, April 29 | <1% |
| 14. | West Ham | 34 | 32 | 34 | -9 | @ CRY, April 29 | 1% |
| 15. | Bournemouth | 33 | 32 | 31 | -32 | @ SOU, April 27 | 9% |
| 16. | Leeds United | 30 | 33 | 42 | -21 | @ BOU, April 30 | 45% |
| 17. | Notts Forest | 30 | 33 | 29 | -31 | @ BRE, April 29 | 58% |
| 18. | Leicester City | 29 | 33 | 44 | -13 | vs. EVE, May 1 | 34% |
| 19. | Everton | 28 | 32 | 24 | -22 | vs. NEW, April 27 | 63% |
| 20. | Southampton | 24 | 32 | 27 | -29 | vs. BOU, April 27 | 90% |
Premier League latest relegation odds 2022/23
Here are the latest relegation odds available at the various sportsbooks around the world.
*Odds updated as of April 26, 2023.
| UK (Sky Bet) |
USA (BetMGM) |
Australia (Neds) |
|
| Southampton | 1/10 | -1000 | 1.08 |
| Nott’m Forest | 4/6 | -500 | 1.67 |
| Everton | 8/11 | -120 | 1.67 |
| Leeds United | 5/6 | +138 | 1.91 |
| Leicester City | 11/8 | +175 | 2.38 |
| Bournemouth | 7/1 | +900 | 8.00 |
| West Ham | 33/1 | +5000 | 34.00 |
Relegation probabilities
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight projects the relegation probability for each club involved in the scrap to avoid the drop. Here’s how each club is tracking.
Nottingham Forest’s recent 11-match winless run saw their relegation probability rise as high as 83%, but a streak-busting win against Brighton saw that figure sliced to 58%.
By contrast, fellow promoted side Bournemouth has mustered a 4W-4L-0D record in their last eight, seeing their safety hopes boosted (64% chance of relegation down to 9%).
| April 26 | April 5 | March 8 | |
| Southampton | 90% | 77% | 63% |
| Everton | 63% | 37% | 58% |
| Nott’m Forest | 58% | 65% | 40% |
| Leeds | 45% | 10% | 28% |
| Leicester | 34% | 30% | 11% |
| Bournemouth | 9% | 42% | 64% |
| West Ham | <1% | 15% | 14% |
| Wolves | <1% | 21% | 14% |