The NFL sure can be an unpredictable league.
The Ravens, Jaguars and Cowboys appeared to be heading into easy wins facing against the Colts, Texans and Cardinals in Week 3. Instead, all three teams left with disappointing losses.
Few teams have begun the season in dominant fashion. The Dolphins stand out after racking up 70 points against the Broncos to move to 3-0 to begin the 2023 season, while the 49ers and Eagles won primetime showdowns against the Giants and Buccaneers to book-end the weekend of football and come away as the only other two undefeated teams.
NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out.
Here’s how the model sees Week 4 shaping up.
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NFL picks, predictions Week 4
Lions (-5) vs. Packers
Win probability: 66.2%, Lions
The power balance has shifted in the NFC North, with the Lions now the favorite to win the division. Jordan Love has impressed with the Packers, helping Green Bay start 2-1 to begin the season. The model still sees the Lions as the team to beat, even in Green Bay.
Jaguars (-7) vs. Falcons
Win probability: 74.4%, Jaguars
Jacksonville needs a get-well game for its offense after falling to the Chiefs and Texans in back-to-back weeks. While the model sees the Jaguars as comfortable favorites over the Falcons, this still feels like a tricky game with Atlanta’s defense playing well to start the year.
Bills (-2) vs. Dolphins
Win probability: 57.6%, Bills
This should be one of the most anticipated matchups of the week between the two hottest offenses in the NFL. The model is favoring the Bills, with home-field advantage being the difference-maker in a measuring-stick, early-season AFC East clash.
Vikings (-1) vs. Panthers
Win probability: 54.1%, Vikings
The Vikings are continuing their trend of finishing in one-score games, but unlike last year, they’re 0-3 this season. That’s enough for the model to trust that at some point their luck will turn. The Panthers have lost by double-digits in two of the three games, and their offense has had its issues.
Bears (-4) vs. Broncos
Win probability: 63.9%, Bears
The second matchup of winless teams, the Bears and Broncos are coming off humiliating blowouts to AFC contenders, and now are matched up with another searching for their first wins of the year. With the game being in Chicago, combined with the model’s expectation of a bounce-back from Justin Fields, it expects the Bears to pick up win No. 1.
Browns (PK) vs. Ravens
Win probability: 51.4%, Browns
The Browns and Ravens find themselves tied with the Steelers atop the vaunted AFC North, and will face off in a battle to stay on top of the division. This could be a defensive slugfest between two of the top units in the league, but the game being in Cleveland — and Baltimore’s disappointing offensive effort against the Colts — has the model giving the slightest edge to the Browns.
Rams (PK) vs. Colts
Win probability: 51.6%, Rams
The Rams and Colts have each out-performed early expectations. Los Angeles took down the Seahawks in Week 1, and has since played contenders like the 49ers and Bengals close. Indianapolis leads the AFC South with wins over the Texans and a stunning victory against the Ravens. The Rams’ quarterback advantage and defensive advantage give them a slight edge on the road.
Steelers (-1) vs. Texans
Win probability: 53.8%, Steelers
Don’t look now, but things are starting to look up quickly in Houston. C.J. Stroud is off to a historic start to his NFL career, and recently led the Texans to a win over the Jaguars. But even with the game in Houston, the model sees the Steelers as the better team, even with the offense still struggling to find its footing.
Saints (-6) vs. Buccaneers
Win probability: 70.4%, Saints
The Saints head into this matchup with uncertainty under center, which has given the Buccaneers a stronger chance in the game in New Orleans. Jameis Winston still grades out as a better backup quarterback than most and the model still views the Saints as the superior team, giving them the comfortable edge at home.
Bengals (-6) vs. Titans
Win probability: 70.7%, Bengals
The Bengals finally picked up their first win of the season, surviving a low-scoring Super Bowl rematch against the Rams on “Monday Night Football.” The Titans, on the other hand, were steamrolled by the Browns to fall to 1-2. With Burrow still playing, the model won’t take into account the fact that he’s playing less than 100 percent, which is what helps explain the larger advantage for Cincinnati than betting markets.
Eagles (-5) vs. Commanders
Win probability: 68.4%, Eagles
Philadelphia is one of just three undefeated teams left in the NFL, but its offense has still not fully clicked the way it had for much of last season. The Commanders find themselves right behind the Eagles in the division at 2-1, but those two wins did come against the Cardinals and Broncos, two of the worst teams in the league. The model has plenty of confidence in Philadelphia picking up the win in its first divisional matchup of the year.
Chargers (-5) vs. Raiders
Win probability: 66.1%, Chargers
The Chargers finally picked up win No. 1 of the season, holding off the Vikings late with an interception in the end zone, and now get a chance to add a second straight win when they host the Raiders in Week 4. Las Vegas might be forced to turn to Brian Hoyer if Jimmy Garoppolo is out with a concussion, which would swing the line further toward the Chargers.
Cowboys (-4) vs. Patriots
Win probability: 65.4%, Cowboys
One of the most inexplicable losses of the season happened in Week 3 when the Cowboys lost to the Cardinals. Dallas gets a bounceback opportunity on Sunday when it hosts the Patriots, whose offense has remained dysfunctional to begin the season, averaging only 17.3 points per game despite beating the Jets 15-10 last week.
49ers (-15) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 90.2%, 49ers
The most lopsided line of the year to date, the 49ers are overwhelming favorites over the Cardinals. Despite Arizona playing close in all its games and beating the Cowboys last week, the model still sees the Cardinals as a true rebuilding team and the 49ers as the favorite in the NFC. This has all the makings of a blowout and a fourth win to start the season for the 49ers.
Chiefs (-4) vs. Jets
Win probability: 64.9%, Chiefs
New York has looked pitiful with Zach Wilson under center, and after dropping each of his first two starts, it has an even more challenging matchup in Week 4 when it hosts the Chiefs. Kansas City appeared to find its stride on offense in Week 3 against the Bears, and while this New York defense could keep the game closer, there’s little reason to expect the Jets to out-score the Chiefs.
Giants (PK) vs. Seahawks
Win probability: 51%, Giants
Few teams have had it as hard to start the season as the Giants. They were demolished in Week 1 to the Cowboys and rolled against the 49ers in Week 3. The Seahawks have had it significantly easier, facing the Rams, Lions and Panthers, with the offense averaging 37 points per game over its past two games. For now, the model isn’t giving up on the Giants, giving them a slight edge over Seattle.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Bills | 11-6 | 49.7% | 27.7% | 77.4% | 15.9% | 16% | 8% |
| Dolphins | 10-7 | 39.7% | 29.3% | 69% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Jets | 7-10 | 6.3% | 15.5% | 21.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Patriots | 7-10 | 4.3% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
AFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Ravens | 10-7 | 32.5% | 33.3% | 65.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 3.8% |
| Bengals | 10-7 | 32% | 37.6% | 69.5% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 8.7% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 21.1% | 32% | 53.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2% |
| Steelers | 9-8 | 14.4% | 27.2% | 41.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
AFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 9-8 | 43.4% | 9.8% | 53.2% | 3% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Titans | 8-9 | 32.7% | 9.5% | 42.2% | 1.9% | 2% | 0.7% |
| Colts | 7-10 | 16.2% | 8% | 24.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Texans | 6-11 | 7.7% | 3.5% | 11.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
AFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 12-5 | 78.1% | 11.5% | 89.6% | 34.4% | 31.9% | 16.3% |
| Chargers | 9-8 | 14% | 26.7% | 40.7% | 2.9% | 4% | 1.8% |
| Raiders | 7-10 | 5.1% | 12.6% | 17.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Broncos | 6-11 | 2.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
NFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 12-5 | 61.4% | 29% | 90.4% | 24.8% | 23.4% | 11.8% |
| Cowboys | 10-7 | 30.6% | 43.8% | 74.3% | 10.2% | 12% | 5.7% |
| Giants | 8-9 | 5.1% | 22.2% | 27.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Commanders | 7-10 | 3% | 13.6% | 16.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
NFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 10-7 | 59.8% | 14.7% | 74.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Packers | 8-9 | 21.3% | 17.8% | 39.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Vikings | 7-10 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 25.1% | 0.4% | 2% | 0.9% |
| Bears | 6-11 | 6.6% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
NFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Saints | 11-6 | 63.1% | 18.6% | 81.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 4% |
| Falcons | 9-8 | 28.3% | 27.3% | 55.7% | 3.1% | 2% | 1.1% |
| Buccaneers | 6-11 | 5% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| Panthers | 6-11 | 3.6% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
NFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 12-5 | 81.5% | 13.3% | 94.8% | 37.1% | 31.8% | 16.9% |
| Seahawks | 9-8 | 14.3% | 38% | 52.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Rams | 7-10 | 4.1% | 22.9% | 27% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Cardinals | 4-13 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |