NBA opening day picks, predictions against the spread: Warriors over Suns, Nuggets over Lakers

By | October 24, 2023

The NBA’s opening night on Oct. 24 features a great doubleheader on TNT. The Nuggets will host the Lakers at 7:30 p.m. ET in a Western Conference Finals rematch and the Warriors will host the Suns at 10 p.m. ET. 

These four teams are among the top six in championship odds, so it should be a fantastic matchup. 

MORE: NBA Championship odds 2023-24: Best bets, value picks, sleepers

Lakers vs Nuggets odds

The Lakers didn’t stand much of a shot against the Nuggets in the playoffs, losing in a sweep. There hasn’t been a ton of turnover on either roster — the Nuggets lost sixth man Bruce Brown Jr. and reserve Jeff Green, while the Lakers lost Dennis Schroder and added Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood. 

The Nuggets have also historically had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA, thanks to their high elevation point. They were 34-7 during the regular season and dropped only one home game in the playoffs during their championship run. 

One advantage that the Lakers might have going for them is that the Nuggets will be having a ring night, which could be a potential distraction. The Warriors have called it such in recent years. 

Take a look at the spread, over/under and moneyline for this contest, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:

  Spread Total Points Moneyline
Lakers +5.5 (-110) o 228.5 (-110) +185
Nuggets -5.5 (-110) u 228.5 (-110) -225

Lakers vs Nuggets prediction

Our pick: Nuggets -5.5

The Lakers haven’t been able to win in Denver. The Nuggets beat the Lakers by six and five points respectively in their two home games during the playoffs. The Lakers lost handily in both of the regular season games in Denver, too.

The reason for that losing streak starts with Nikola Jokic. The Lakers mostly went with putting a smaller player like Rui Hachimura on Jokic, letting Anthony Davis play more of a helper role. Jokic was still able to go off, and there’s no reason why that result should change. Even with an entire summer to ruminate, it’s unlikely that they’ve come up with anything else that will work. 

The Nuggets will miss the loss of Bruce Brown Jr., but they picked up veteran Justin Holiday who can provide some outside shooting and competent defense for them. Christian Braun should be ready to step into a larger role as well. They’re still the best team in the West until proven otherwise. 

Suns vs Warriors odds

While the Lakers and Nuggets had little turnover, the Warriors and Suns added some big names during the offseason. Donte DiVincenzo and Jordan Poole are gone from the Warriors. In their place are veterans Chris Paul, Dario Saric and Cory Joseph.

For the Suns, Bradley Beal is the big addition. Jusuf Nurkic replaces Deandre Ayton at center, and Grayson Allen, Keita Bates-Diop, Eric Gordon and Yuta Watanabe should also be in the rotation. 

Draymond Green has been ruled out of this game with an ankle injury, per The Athletic’s Shams Charania. Bradley Beal is unlikely to play, per Charania.

Take a look at the spread, over/under and moneyline for this contest, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:

  Spread Total Points Moneyline
Suns +2.5 (-110) o 233.0 (-110) +118
Warriors -2.5 (-110) u 233.0 (-110) -140

Suns vs Warriors prediction

Our pick: Warriors -2.5

The Suns certainly have a ton of star power in this matchup. Even with Beal ruled out, nobody is stopping an offense led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. But they don’t have the continuity of the Warriors.

New teams often have difficulty acclimating to their constant off-ball screening, and the Suns don’t yet have the familiarity to nail those rotations. Nurkic is also a terrible fit for this matchup. His lack of mobility defensively is what has limited his effectiveness. The Warriors’ motion offense will test him relentlessly.

On the Warriors’ side, the big question has been how Paul will acclimate to a new team. He was terrific in the preseason, finding instant chemistry with Stephen Curry. Steve Kerr has incorporated more Pistol actions into his team that allow both Curry and Paul to work in actions together. 

Paul also has the added incentive of competing against his former team. While he doesn’t know exactly what new coach Frank Vogel will be running, he does know their personnel backwards and forwards. He will pick at their weak spots throughout the game. 

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