Lamar Jackson MVP odds: Ravens QB overtakes 49ers’ Brock Purdy after Baltimore dominates San Francisco

By | December 26, 2023

Brock Purdy entered the 49ers vs. Ravens Christmas Day clash as the favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award.

But after Baltimore shellacked San Francisco 33-19 as Purdy threw four interceptions, the Ravens believe that Lamar Jackson should be the MVP “hands down.”

“I thought Lamar had an MVP performance,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after the game, per ESPN. “It takes a team to create a performance like that, but it takes a player to play at that level β€” to play at an MVP level β€” it takes a player to play that way. And Lamar was all over the field doing everything.”

MORE: Lamar Jackson, Ravens defense show out in dominant win over 49ers

Jackson enjoyed a terrific game in the Ravens’ lopsided win. He led the Baltimore offense to seven consecutive scoring drives and completed 23 of 35 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns while adding 45 yards on the ground.

But as Baltimore linebacker Roquan Smith pointed out, Jackson’s impact goes beyond the box score.

“I think if anybody watched the game [or] if anybody watches football this season and watched the Baltimore Ravens, they know for a fact [that] Lamar Jackson is the MVP, hands down,” Smith said. “Anyone that watches football and knows football and [can] see the type of impact he has on the game β€” not even stat-wise, but just individually, the plays that he makes quarter in and quarter out, play in and play out β€” compare his film to anyone else in the league. Then, I would love to hear what anyone else has to say after that.”

Smith has a point, as Jackson’s dual-threat ability helped to discombobulate San Francisco’s usually strong defense. His ability to avoid pressure and make positive plays with his legs and in the downfield passing game kept the 49ers’ typically elite pass rush off-balance and at bay for most of the evening.

As Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers put it, “[Jackson] can do everything.”

“You [saw] it [Monday night],” the Ravens rookie said. “He ran it; he threw it; he led the team. That’s the MVP. You lead your team, you have the best record in the NFL, and he just comes out and continues to come out and do what he [does] game in and game out even though people [say], ‘He can’t do this. He can’t do that,’ and he comes out and proves them wrong every time.”

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens overtake 49ers at the top after routing San Francisco on Christmas

The Ravens have certainly made a strong case for Jackson as the NFL MVP, but do the oddsmakers agree? It appears that things are trending in favor of Baltimore’s quarterback.

Lamar Jackson MVP odds

Jackson is currently the favorite to be named the NFL’s MVP. He currently has odds of -180 to take home the title, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook. That gives him an implied 64.3 percent chance of winning the award.

Comparatively, Purdy had entered the game as the favorite to win the MVP with odds of -200. His brutal, four-pick performance dropped him to +800, which is good only for the third-shortest odds in the field.

NFL MVP odds 2023

With just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL season, Caesar’s Sportsbook is listing just 10 players with a chance to win the NFL MVP award. Jackson has the shortest odds to take home the trophy while Jared Goff has the longest odds among those listed.

Below is a look at the MVP race, according to Caesar’s.

Player Team Odds
Lamar Jackson Ravens -180
Christian McCaffrey 49ers +360
Brock Purdy 49ers +800
Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins +950
Josh Allen Bills +1100
Tyreek Hill Dolphins +1300
Dak Prescott Cowboys +2500
Jalen Hurts Eagles +5000
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs +7500
Jared Goff Lions +15000

It’s easy to understand why Jackson is the favorite to win MVP after his strong game against the 49ers. That said, he will still need to perform well over the season’s final two weeks to earn the honor.

Why is that? After all, Jackson has enjoyed a great season with the Ravens, leading them to a 12-3 record, an AFC North championship and a win-and-clinch scenario for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 17. It’s hard to argue that any quarterback is more vital to his team’s offensive success than Jackson, so that has positioned him well to garner MVP attention.

Even so,  Jackson’s stats aren’t quite as prolific as some of the other top-tier MVP candidates. That could position players like Christian McCaffrey, Tua Tagovailoa or Tyreek Hill to overtake him, especially the latter two if the Ravens slip up against the Dolphins in Week 17.

MORE: Breaking down the NFL playoff picture after Week 16, heading into Week 17

Lamar Jackson stats 2023

Jackson has posted respectable stats during the 2023 NFL season, but his passing totals rank middle-of-the-pack among quarterbacks. That won’t necessarily preclude him from winning the award, but that could put him at a disadvantage in a tightly-packed MVP race.

Here’s a look at Jackson’s passing stats and where they rank league-wide during the 2023 NFL season:

Stat Total Rank
Comp. % 66.3 11th
Passing yards 3,357 15th
Pass TDs 19 T-14th
INTs 7 T-22nd
Yards per attempt 7.7 4th
Passer rating 97.2 8th
QBR 63.0 8th
PFF grade 86.7 7th

Of course, it should be noted that Jackson’s 3,357 passing yards are already a career-high, so that should help his MVP cause. So too should his rushing numbers, which remain the best among NFL quarterbacks despite averaging his third-fewest rushing attempts per game of his six-season career.

Below is a look at Jackson’s rushing stats and where they rank among NFL quarterbacks:

Stat Total Rank
Carries 142 2nd
Rushing yards 786 1st
Rush TDs 5 T-3rd
Yards per carry 5.5 2nd

So, even despite Jackson’s passing numbers checking in a bit lower than is usually ideal among quarterbacks, he still has the production needed to justify an MVP selection.

Has Lamar Jackson ever won MVP?

Yes, Jackson won the MVP during the 2019 season. That was his first full-time season as a starter and his second in the NFL.

Jackson earned a rare, unanimous MVP selection for his performance during that campaign. He led the NFL in passing touchdowns, posted one of the best rushing seasons by a quarterback of all-time and led the Ravens to a 13-2 record in his 15 starts.

Baltimore was the No. 1 seed in the AFC in that campaign, so Jackson’s performance this year will draw comparisons to his MVP season.

Even so, Jackson’s stats were much better during his first MVP season than they will be in 2023.

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Lamar Jackson stats 2019

Jackson posted all-around terrific numbers during his second NFL season. He led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 36 and threw for a touchdown on a whopping 9 percent of his passes, also good for the best mark in the league.

Below is a breakdown of Jackson’s passing stats from the 2019 season.

Stat Total Rank
Comp. % 66.1 T-8th
Passing yards 3,127 22nd
Pass TDs 36 1st
INTs 6 T-23rd
Yards per attempt 7.8 T-11th
Passer rating 113.3 3rd
QBR 83.0 1st
PFF grade 90.1 4th

Like 2023, Jackson didn’t rack up an overwhelming amount of passing yards. But unlike this season, Jackson still generated a lot of scores through the air while being one of the most efficient passers in the NFL.

Jackson also was among the best runners in the league, and not just among quarterbacks. He finished sixth in the NFL in rushing yards while his 6.9 yards per carry were 1.3 yards per attempt better than the second-highest player (Raheem Mostert).

Below is a look at Jackson’s rushing stats and where he ranked among quarterbacks in those categories.

Stat Total Rank
Carries 176 1st
Rushing yards 1,206 1st
Rush TDs 7 T-2nd
Yards per carry 6.9 1st

Jackson was a shoo-in for that MVP award because of his dominance both through the air and on the ground. If he receives the award in 2023, he will likely get it for the same reason, even if his touchdown totals are comparatively lagging.

Either way, Jackson has been a constant at the quarterback position in a season during which consistent quarterback play has been difficult to find. That will go a long way toward potentially earning him his second career MVP.

Lamar Jackson stats 2023 vs. 2019

For those wondering exactly how Jackson’s 2019 season compares statistically to his 2023 season, here’s a comparison of his stats to date.

Stat Jackson in 2023 Jackson in 2019
Games 15 15
Comp. % 66.3 66.1
Passing yards 3,357 3,127
Pass TDs 19 36
INTs 7 6
Yards per attempt 7.7 7.8
Passer rating 97.2 113.3
QBR 63.0 83.0
PFF grade 86.7 90.1
Carries 142 176
Rushing yards 786 1,206
Rush TDs 5 7
Yards per carry 5.5 6.8

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