The Chargers have regressed to the mean in recent weeks, but their Week 15 loss likely felt more like a punch to the mouth than any of their other losses.
Narrow defeats at the hands of the Ravens and Chiefs can be excused for a Chargers team that seems to be ahead of schedule this season, but surrendering 40 points to the Buccaneers was a wake-up call for Jim Harbaugh’s group. Can they respond on Thursday?
The Chargers can still take a massive step toward the playoffs with a win over their AFC West rivals, which would also give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos to potentially improve their seeding position in the wild-card race.
Here’s an updated look at the Chargers’ playoff chances and how they can clinch in Week 16.
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Chargers playoff picture
AFC wild-card standings
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 5 | Ravens | 9-5 |
| 6 | Broncos | 9-5 |
| 7 | Chargers | 8-6 |
| 8 | Colts | 6-8 |
| 9 | Dolphins | 6-8 |
| 10 | Bengals | 6-8 |
| 11 | Jets | 4-10 |
| 12 | Browns | 3-11 |
| 13 | Jaguars | 3-11 |
| 14 | Titans | 3-11 |
| 15 | Patriots | 3-11 |
| 16 | Raiders | 2-12 |
The Chargers have lost three of their past four games, but they remain well-positioned to reach the playoffs after recent losses by the Dolphins and Colts. L.A. has a two-game advantage on Miami, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati entering Week 16.
Harbaugh’s squad can clinch a playoff berth in Week 16 with a win over the Broncos and losses by both the Dolphins and Colts. Even if that scenario doesn’t play out, an L.A. win on Thursday would put the team in a win-and-in scenario the rest of the way.
Should the Chargers lose, it would become extremely difficult to pass the Broncos in the standings and potentially impossible to catch Ravens if Baltimore gets the win against Pittsburgh. While they would still be favored to reach the playoffs even with a loss, it would make the No. 7 seed the most likely landing spot for the Chargers if they secured a spot.
The Chargers’ AFC West hopes are gone, as the Chiefs already clinched the division title.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
Chargers remaining schedule
| Week | Date | Matchup | Time (ET) |
| 16 | Dec. 19 | vs. Broncos | 8:15 p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 28 | at Patriots | 1 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 5 | at Raiders | TBD |
Why would the Chargers still be well-positioned to reach the playoffs even with a loss to the Broncos? Their final two games come against teams who enter Week 16 with a combined 5-23 record.
L.A. will close its season against the Patriots and Raiders. While both games are on the road and can’t be taken for granted, New England has allowed at least 25 points in four consecutive games and Las Vegas hasn’t won since September. There wouldn’t be much of an excuse for the Chargers not to take care of business against at least one of those teams.
Chargers updated playoff chances
ESPN’s Football Power Index rates the Chargers’ playoff chances at 88 percent entering Week 16. A win over the Broncos would make Los Angeles extremely likely to reach the playoffs, though some more help would be needed to clinch this weekend.