In this betting preview:
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL—We all watched one year ago as Wyndham Clark lined up his putt to tie Scottie Scheffler and force a playoff. As the ball bounded toward the hole, a million thoughts crossed my mind. Believe it or not, none of them included watching one of the most painful lip-outs in recent golf history.
The anguish we witnessed on Wyndham’s face mirrored our own disbelief. Finding a +5500 winner in one of golf’s biggest events doesn’t happen easily. On Monday of this week when I returned to TPC Sawgrass, I walked out to the spot where I watched that putt. It is important to feel closure on an event before we begin the process and pursuit again. Clark’s catastrophic circling of the hole is officially behind me. It is behind us.
For the 51st time, the PGA TOUR is putting on their flagship event. What started in Georgia, moved to Texas and settled in Florida, THE PLAYERS Championship invites a full field of professionals to compete for one of golf’s greatest annual titles. As if the final three holes do not attract enough attention, the largest purse on TOUR is offered to the men who play the weekend ($25 million).
We all have a favorite Sawgrass story, as Pete Dye’s diabolical design never disappoints. Buckle up for another year of incredible theater, as 48 of the top 50 in the world compete to be a part of history. Much like Augusta National, this familiar venue will more than likely provide us with another ending we couldn’t possibly fathom.
The following preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering THE PLAYERS Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Sepp Straka (+5000 on DraftKings)
Straka has been playing the best golf of his career. He has won multiple times on TOUR, played in a Ryder Cup, and yet his current golf is better. Since Straka won the American Express in January, he has finished 7-15-MC-11-5.
Straka’s T2G numbers since the start of 2025 rank in the top five in the field. THE PLAYERS Championship rewards those who can confidently attack the course and score. With Sepp’s recent success, he is one player who can keep up with the favorites and earn us a significant pay day.
Best bet to place in the top 20: Michael Kim (+280 on bet365)
Much like Straka, Kim is playing very well. His latest contest results include a 2-13-13-6-4. Kim has jumped up 110 OWGR ranking places in the last five weeks. A conservative top 20 at the very least, I won’t get too aggressive and just take the win.
Best head-to-head bet: Adam Scott over Taylor Pendrith (-110 on FanDuel)
For two weeks in a row, Pendrith has paid us a 72-hole bet after 36 holes. The once-consistent Canadian is now consistently missing the cut. Pendrith’s putter and short game are really struggling. The last time he gained with both in the same event was the BMW in August.
Scott, meanwhile, is a former PLAYERS winner and has successfully navigated 17 cuts in a row. He has five straight top 40s in 2025, and he gives us another great opportunity to get paid on Friday.
THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 live odds to win
Odds courtesy of FanDuel. Showing odds of +10000 and shorter.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1100 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 |
| Russell Henley | +3500 |
| Shane Lowry | +4000 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +4000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5000 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 |
| Sungjae Im | +5500 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +6000 |
| Jason Day | +6500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +6500 |
| Daniel Berger | +6500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +6500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +7000 |
| Tony Finau | +7500 |
| Michael Kim | +7500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +7500 |
| Aaron Rai | +7500 |
| Sam Burns | +8000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +8000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +8000 |
| Tom Kim | +9000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +9000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +10000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +10000 |
| Adam Scott | +10000 |
THE PLAYERS Championshipl 2025: Betting preview
Before Scottie’s successful title defense, the average finish of each winner in the year prior to their victory is twenty-ninth place. Only one of them finished inside the top 16, and three of them, including Rory McIlroy, missed the cut right before they won. Scheffler does seem obvious again, but that trend tells you there will be some surprises as well.
Whether you have watched the PLAYERS 20 times or two, you sense the underlying theme; volatility. The average winning score since the move back to March is 16 under par and the average cutline is +1.4. Superstars only. as the average pre-tournament winner’s odds are +1500. Only one March winner, Cam Smith, had odds above +1800!
The trend in “elevated” events for 2025 was elite players winning. Hideki, Rory, and Ludvig took home the trophies in the first three signature starts. Collin was on course to keep the wins inside the top 10 of the OWGR and then Russell Henley chipped in. Russell is far from a long shot at 14th in the world when he won (now seventh), so I believe the trend is still our friend.
A “known” player is going to continue the season tendency (and March PLAYERS trend) by winning this week. Recent winners all arrive in Ponte Vedra posting a top-21 finish or better in the weeks leading up. You not only have to be great — you must also be in great form.
Course history counts around these “Dyabolical” holes. Only one winner (after the first) has won THE PLAYERS on their first try; Craig Perks in 2002. To say Perks probably even surprised himself with that win, who could ever forget his three-hole close making 3-2-3 to take down the title. In order to recreate that scoring run you will need an excellent iron game.
One of the best characteristics of this course is that it just doesn’t test one aspect of your approach acumen. Players need to be a little bi-polar. You can make incredible gains from over 200 yards on the par 5s, long par 4s, and the par 3 eighth. The Stadium Course also has five par 4s under 425 yards. You’ll need a wedge to win those accuracy tests.
Every March winner has gained at least six strokes on the field with their iron game! Looking through the leaderboards, approach play leads the way. Past your attacking ability, the remaining three primary strokes gained categories rate out evenly. TPC Sawgrass stands the test of time (with minor tweaks) because it is a fantastic well-rounded exam.
I can point to several examples of each winner excelling in all aspects of their game. Starting from the tee, contenders separate by being aggressive off the tee. Further proof you cannot just find it here, great drivers come in confident and send it. The 5,500 sq/ft greens are small and sitting at funny angles. They have very specific sections and require superior proximity. The closer you get off the tee, the bigger the advantage.
Scottie Scheffler is always framed as an incredible ball striker, but during these past two PLAYERS wins, he has gained an average of four strokes around the green on the field. A classy chip-in never hurts when you get perplexed by a Pete Dye pot bunker. The overseed looks very much like the green surrounds at PGA National. If your short game is an advantage, you will climb closer to the top of the leaderboard. Short game implies bogey avoidance, but it also allows players to score from close range. Sub-par scores on the very short 4s and par 5s require an adept around the green skill set.
I’ve heard many media members talk about the rain we received on Sunday and Monday. You can sense the ground is well fed, but the turf does not feel wet. Please remember the greens have a system called Precision Air underneath them. The agronomy team can make the surface as hard as they want. They can control the temperature to ensure they grow perfectly. This place is a shrine to golf maintenance much like Augusta National. Even the very best on approach will only hit 52-52 GIRs. The rest of the holes, that short game better be in order.
The winners average 23 sub-par scores across their 72-holes. The average winning score is 16 under. To manage that positive birdie-bogey balance, one must do two things. Possesses a sharp short game and patient course management. Justin Thomas said it in his press conference. The one trait he would want to steal from Scottie is Scheffler’s ability to effectively use a successful game plan. Tiger was extremely good at managing his skill set over four rounds and we saw the results. Scheffler has that same ability. More important than par 5 scoring, winning elite events is about passing a mental test rather than a physical one.
I mentioned the par 5s. TPC Sawgrass has four very “scorable” 5s. Much like Bay Hill, par 5 scoring is a requirement and not a place where one can separate. Seriously scan the field for the best par 4 and 3(!) scorers. The par ranges below tell an interesting story. Those mid-range 4s and the 17th hole are an opportunity. Proximity and putting help players capitalize on these scoring chances.
- Par 3 – 0-150
- Par 4 – 400-450
- Par 5 – 500-550
One wild swing can create an impossible situation and double bogey. Avoiding the big number by managing an attacking style is the key to victory. Each of the players in the media center yesterday mentioned how important the driver is. They view attacking this course from the tee as the best way to differentiate yourself. As such, our betting card reflects impeccable current form and an OTT edge.
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THE PLAYERS Championship 2025: TPC Sawgrass course overview
Before I get to the on-course intelligence, let’s set the stage. The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass first hosted THE PLAYERS in 1982. Since then, we have seen this sensational stage evolve alongside the modern game. The par 72 scorecard added 77 yards since last year. Six holes have been lengthened in line with the advancements in athletes and equipment. The official distance now measures 7,352 yards. The card read 6,857 in 1982, an increase of nearly 500 yards over the last 43 years. Never the longest test, Dye developed an 18-hole exam that measures one’s patience as much as their performance.
From 2007 to 2018, THE PLAYERS was moved to May and contested on Mother’s Day weekend. The TOUR moved it back to March in 2019, and the tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to covid, sorry Hideki. It’s worth noting the move in this narrative as the May editions were played under very different conditions than the March contests.
The March agronomy consists of a Ryegrass overseed from tee to green and a Poa trivialis overseed on the putting surfaces. The May course would have presented a wall to wall Bermudagrass test. The average green size on the Stadium Course is 5,500 sq/ft. Those are pretty small targets when you consider the Stadium Course presents 92 bunkers and 17 holes have water in play. Many of those watery graves are the most memorable in golf!
I have played THE PLAYERS venue several times. The most visually intimidating course in America from the tee, Pete punishes your golf psyche for 18 straight holes. Most fans only fear the seventeenth hole for its island green, but many of the other 17 tests have double trouble off the tee and you’re hitting a driver. Since the move back to March, all four winners are also major champions. Scheffler (twice), Rory, Cam Smith, and JT are all elite players. Based upon the event’s name, they should be. This is the PGA TOUR’s Super Bowl. From Jay Monahan’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, to the constant barrage of content surrounding the Creator Classic on Wednesday, the TOUR is all-in.
Watching from home for so many years, I never quite understood the identity of this tournament. Since arriving on-site in 2022 and every year since, my appreciation for this venue has significantly increased. THE PLAYERS is a legit major level championship. The venue is always inside the top four every season as it is at least better than one major (if not two) in any given year.
The agronomy is impeccable much like ANGC because the tournament never moves. With the PGA TOUR’s HQ located behind the sixteenth green, their focus is concentrated on this course. The conditions every year are near perfect, and the infrastructure is very fan driven. Most TPC courses feel incomplete in some way, not the Stadium Course. Sawgrass is sensational from start to finish and with a couple new tweaks, I cannot wait to see how this year’s venue performs against the very best in the world.
The weather looks great this week. The forecast calls for temperatures in the high-70s and a slight chance of rain late on Sunday afternoon. Located just over a mile from the Atlantic coastline, wind can play havoc across the course. The current wind outlook is only questionable on Saturday (20+ mph SE). Being near the water, that can change very quickly.
If you are playing daily games and making live bets, make sure you check the real-time weather updates. Without the wind I don’t see much of a wave advantage due to the weather, BUT 14 of the last 16 winners have started their week in the AM/PM wave. Weather, conditions, pairings, all change every year and this trend remains constant.
On property, there are a couple of observations that stand out:
- The agronomy team has this place right where they want it. The fairways and approaches are slightly wet to start the week. Those areas are going to play a lot like Bay Hill. As the tournament gets closer to the final nine holes on Sunday, it will dry out and become more and more firm, increasing the challenge.
- The rough is substantial, but at the level of last week, or even slightly less. Depending on how firm they make the greens, (see next point) players will be able to hit reasonable approaches from off the fairway.
- TPC Sawgrass has a Precision Air system. The agronomy team can create whatever green surface conditions they want. Precision Air can heat the surface, cool it, dry it out, etc. It’s amazing technology and don’t be surprised if the greens are rock hard even if the fairways look and perform a little soft on Thursday.
Ten holes on the Stadium Course carry a birdie rate over 15%. The par 5s average a sub-par score almost 40% of the time. Conversely, 12 holes have a bogey rate over 15%. Four of the top 5 hardest holes relative to par are par 4s (18, 14, 5, 7). Collectively, nine of the 10 par 4s have an individual scoring average over par for the tournament.
Have I mentioned the par 3s? All four face a different wind direction and together they play approximately a half stroke over par. A perfect “par” microcosm for the varied test that best represents this venue, the par 3s measure anywhere from 141 to 236 yards in length.
Just one of the anxious tests awaiting the field of 144 players. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for $25 million. A TOUR leading first place prize of $4.5 million, only one man can win three in a row. Yet to take home a trophy in 2025, a motivated Scottie Scheffler looks extra focused inside the ropes.
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