Each passing Saturday cuts a little deeper into the Group of Five playoff picture. What began as a wide-open race has narrowed to a handful of survivors clinging to a realistic shot at a postseason bid.
Western Kentucky’s stunning home loss to FIU officially ended the Hilltoppers’ hopes. And just days later, the biggest shake-up yet with Memphis falling to UAB. It was 31-24 shocker that changed everything in the American and shifted the power balance of the entire Group of Five.
While the Tigers still have life, their loss opened the door for an unexpected new frontrunner, an unbeaten service academy with a shot to make history.
Here’s how the final eight contenders stack up heading into the last weekend of October.
Navy Midshipmen (6-0)
The Midshipmen remain unbeaten, but the smooth sailing ends here. Navy hosts Florida Atlantic on Saturday before entering a brutal November stretch. With North Texas, Notre Dame, South Florida, and Memphis still ahead, the path to the CFP has grown far more treacherous.
That said, they still control their own destiny. No Group of Five team has a clearer equation: win out, capture the American title, and the playoff committee will have no choice but to listen.
South Florida Bulls (6-1)
Alex Golesh’s Bulls have become appointment viewing. USF’s offense hums near the national top 10, and their balance has turned them from spoiler to serious threat.
Up next, because of Memphis’ loss to FIU, we now have an elimination game with USF traveling to Memphis. Two one-loss teams will meet, and only one stays alive.
Tulane Green Wave (6-1)
Jon Sumrall’s defending American champions continue to live on the edge, but winning ugly still counts. Tulane escaped Army 24-17 with a go-ahead touchdown in the closing seconds, surviving yet another scare to stay alive in the playoff chase.
Up next, the Green Wave travel to San Antonio to face UTSA on Thursday night, a tricky road test that could determine whether Tulane remains part of the conversation.
Memphis Tigers (6-1)
For six weeks, Memphis looked untouchable. That changed in Birmingham. Interim coach Alex Mortensen and UAB pulled off one of the season’s biggest upsets, stopping the Tigers at the goal line to seal a 31-24 victory.
The loss doesn’t eliminate Memphis, but it stripped away their margin for error. Ryan Silverfield’s team must now win out and reclaim the American crown to remain in the conversation.
North Texas Mean Green (6-1)
North Texas continues to roll. The Mean Green improved to 6-1 after a dominant 55-17 win over UTSA, a statement that re-established them as legitimate American contenders.
They arguably have the most favorable schedule of any one-loss team to reach the American Championship Game. With momentum on their side and an explosive offense leading the nation in scoring, North Texas has positioned itself for a serious run.
Next up is struggling Charlotte on Friday night, another chance to strengthen their case before November’s showdown stretch.
James Madison Dukes (6-1)
James Madison made an emphatic statement on Saturday. The Dukes dismantled a solid Old Dominion team 63-27 — a program that earlier in the year had taken Indiana to the wire and beaten Virginia Tech.
It was the kind of performance that reminded everyone how complete this team can be. The defense forced turnovers, the offense never let up, and the Dukes once again looked like the most disciplined team in the Sun Belt.
Anyone who was proclaiming this was the American Conference’s bid to lose may need to step back for a minute, because JMU has been nothing short of impressive. We’ll see if Bob Chesney and his squad can keep it going on the road against G.J. Kinne and Texas State next weekend.
UNLV Rebels (6-1)
The dream took a hit in Boise. Dan Mullen’s Rebels had their chances early, but Boise State took control in the second half and never looked back, rolling to a 56-31 win that handed UNLV its first loss of the season.
For the first time all year, UNLV looked overmatched defensively, surrendering big plays through the air and on the ground. The Rebels remain in the Mountain West hunt but will need perfection from here on out to make the playoffs.
UNLV now enters a bye week before hosting New Mexico on November 1.
San Diego State Aztecs (5-1)
Coming off a bye week, San Diego State enters a defining five-game stretch that will determine its postseason fate. First up is a road test at (5-2) Fresno State, a matchup that could swing the balance of the Mountain West race.
Sean Lewis has done a remarkable job turning things around in his second season with the Aztecs. But with tough matchups ahead against Wyoming, Hawai‘i, and Boise State, it may be too much to expect a playoff appearance this season.
Looking Ahead
With Memphis wounded, Western Kentucky gone, and Navy standing alone as the last unbeaten in the American, the Group of Five race has never been tighter.
UNLV, Tulane, Navy, and South Florida remain in striking distance. James Madison lurks in the shadows, ready to capitalize on November chaos.
We know no more than seven teams will be alive after this weekend, but that number could drop even lower. The picture is shrinking fast, but the dream is still alive.