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Prediction markets like Polymarket are taking crowd-sourcing to another level. A typical sports fan has an opinion on just about everything that has to do with their favorite teams and players. And it’s certainly easy to figure out where the so-called experts and talking heads stand on a particular topic. But what does everyone else think? That’s where Polymarket comes in.
It’s kind of like a stock market but for sports. Instead of placing wagers on a traditional sporsbook, you’re buying and selling shares, or contracts, tied to a specific outcome of a real-life event. And the prices of the shares tell you what the rest of the world is thinking as they fluctuate in real time as transactions take place.
With anything new, there’s a bit of a learning curve, but this guide breaks down everything you need to know about prediction markets and the Polymarket platform. Learn about the basics of how pricing works, when to buy and sell, differences from sports betting and more.
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is peer-to-peer prediction market regulated by the federal government in the U.S. The platform allows users to to purchase and sell contracts, or trade shares, based on the outcomes of real-life events.
Each market offers a clear yes-or-no question tied to a specific outcome and date. For example, a market may ask whether Team A will beat Team B or if a player will win the Golden Boot award in the World Cup.
When was Polymarket created?
Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020 and is headquartered in New York City. When Polymarket first launched, it was a decentralized platform that was not under federal regulation. However, Polymarket is currently regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Platform details and requirements
Anyone who is 18 years old or older can be a user on the Polymarket platform. Identity verification is required through the Know Your Customer (KYC) process.
Polymarket operates on the Polygon network and requires users to have cryptocurrency in order to participate. A user must have a crypto wallet and use USDC stablecoin (1 USDC stablecoin is the equivalent of 1 US dollar). A basic knowledge of cryptocurrency is not required, but it would certainly help in setting up an account and using the platform effectively.
A user will also need a working e-mail address for verification purposes.
How Polymarket works
Now that we know what Polymarket is, how does it work? While there are similarities between Polymarket and legalized sports betting, with prediction markets, a user is trading shares or contracts with other users. In legalized sports betting, you’re playing against the sportsbook itself, or “the house”.
Every contract or share that is offered is a yes-or-no question. Shares, which are also commonly referred to as contracts, are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the price reflects how likely the market thinks that particular outcome is. If the event happens (Yes), the contract pays the user $1. If the event does not happen (No), the contract pays $0. The user’s profit is the difference between what you paid for the contract and the $1 payout, minus any fees.
Users can also sell their shares at any time before the event reaches a conclusion. This can be done to lock in profits or to cut losses, depending on which way it seems the outcome will play out. This could be seen similarly to a cashout in sports betting, but the option to exit is always present, whereas cash outs are offered at the discretion of the sportsbooks.
The prices you see on Polymarket are roughly the equivalent to the probabilities of those outcomes happening. If you purchase a share for $0.72 that means there’s about a 72 percent chance that your share will pay out with the desired outcome.
Crypto wallet setup
If you’re new to cryptocurrency, here’s a step-by-step guide to set things up so you’re ready to trade on Polymarket.
- Choose a crypto wallet: Some popular options include MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect and more
- Three options to get USDC on Polygon (USDC is the stablecoin used on the Polymarket platform)
- Direct purchase through crypto exchange like Coinbase
- Buy USDC on Ethereum and bridge it from Ethereum to Polygon
- Some wallets allow you to buy crypto with a credit or debit card, but there are typically higher fees involved
- Connect crypto wallet to Polymarket
- Go to Polymarket
- Click “connect wallet”
- Select wallet type
- Approve connection in wallet
- Enter e-mail for notification
Trading on Polymarket
Now that you have your wallet set up and are ready to go with USDC, it’s time to find what markets are most appealing.
Let’s take a look at a real-life example. After scanning the markets for the NFL, “NFL Champion 2027” jumps out at you. The three most probable winners are Seattle Seahawks (12 percent), Los Angeles Rams (10 percent) and Buffalo Bills (7 percent), but you want to go with a longer shot.
Perhaps you think the Chiefs are due for a bounce-back season after missing the playoffs last year. Kansas City Chiefs as a “Yes” to win the Super Bowl, or become NFL Champion as the market is listed, will cost you $.06 per share, which gives them a 6 percent chance of pulling off the feat.
You decide you want to buy $15 worth of shares for this market. At that price, that means you’re purchasing 250 shares. That means if the Chiefs pull off another Super Bowl victory, you will earn $250 on your initial $15 investment, which would be a $235 profit. If the Chiefs do not hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season, you will lost that $15 investment and walk away with nothing.
But what happens if we get some news during the preseason that Patrick Mahomes’ recovery from a torn ACL hit a snag, and he’s in danger of missing the first few weeks of the season. There isn’t currently widespread panic about his status for the start of the season yet, but you’re concerned enough you think it makes sense to try and exit your Super Bowl position. One of the benefits of using a prediction market is that you can exit a position at any time. With sports betting, you have to hope that you’ll be presented with a cash-out option, but you’re at the mercy of the sportsbook.
If the news had become widespread, the price of your shares or contracts likely would have decreased because many others would also be trying to sell, lowering the value, and in turn, the probability of the outcome. But right now, it’s been just one report from an obscure source, so there hasn’t been a lot of activity. Still, there’s been enough movement where the price of your contracts are $0.05. You decide it’s time to sell before the price goes down further, and you execute that transaction, which nets you $12.50 minus any fees. That means you lost $2.50 on your initial $15 investment. But if you held on to the contracts and the Chiefs do not win the Super Bowl, you would lose your entire $15 investment.
Is Polymarket legal?
Polymarket is legal at the federal level in the U.S., but it’s been a bit of a winding road for the platform. Here’s a timeline of Polymarket’s legal history in the United States.
- Polymarket launched: June 2020
- CFTC fines and blocks Polymarket: January 2022
- DOJ probe and FBI raid: November 2024
- Polymarket acquires QCEX, a derivatives exchange licensed by the CFTC: July 2025
- CFTC allows Polymarket back into the U.S.: November 2025
- Polymarket app re-launches in U.S. with a waitlist: December 2025
After launching in 2020, the CFTC believed Polymarket was operating an unregistered derivatives exchange in 2022. They claimed that Polymarket was offering markets to U.S. users without proper registration and violated the Commodity Exchange Act.
In coming to a settlement, Polymarket paid a $1.4M fine and agreed to stop offering it’s platform to users in the U.S, and they had to geo-block U.S. IP addresses.
Polymarket continued its growth in other countries, though. In a move to try and get the platform back in the U.S., Polymarket acquired QCEX — a derivatives exchange licensed by the CFTC — for $112M. The acquisition gave Polymarket access to the necessary CFTC licenses to operate in the U.S. and be compliant under federal regulations.
Polymarket officially relaunched in the United States in December 2025, but access to U.S. citizens is being granted through a waitlist process.
Polymarket is legal, but there are restrictions in some states. Here are the states in which Polymarket is facing legal challenges:
- Nevada
- Tennessee
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- New Jersey
- New York
- Connecticut
Current sports topics offered on Polymarket
Polymarket offers a wide array of markets across a long list of sports. Here’s a list of every sport currently offered on Polymarket:
- NBA
- College basketball
- Champions League
- NHL
- UFC
- Football
- Soccer
- Tennis
- Cricket
- Basketball
- Baseball
- Hockey
- Rugby
- Table tennis
- Golf
- Formula 1
- Chess
- Boxing
Let’s take a closer look at some upcoming major events.
NHL Playoffs and awards on Polymarket
Here’s a look at the NHL playoffs, Stanley Cup and awards markets that are being offered on Polymarket in April 2026:
- 2026 Stanley Cup champion
- NHL Eastern Conference champion
- NHL Western Conference champion
- NHL Art Ross Trophy winner
- NHL Calder Memorial Trophy winner
- NHL Hart Memorial Trophy winner
- NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy winner
- NHL Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy winner
- NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy winner
- NHL Vezina Trophy winner
- NHL Jack Adams Award winner
MLB awards on Polymarket
If you go the baseball section of Polymarket, it initially shows you the games of the day that are available. If you select the props button, it will bring up additional markets, including awards given out at the end of the season. Here’s a list of what’s currently being offered for awards markets:
- MLB 2026 NL Hank Aaron winner
- MLB 2026 AL Hank Aaron winner
- MLB NL Manager of the Year
- MLB AL Manager of the Year
- MLB NL Comeback Player of the Year
- MLB AL Comeback Player of the Year
- MLB NL Platinum Glove winner
- MLB AL Platinum Glove winner
- MLB Outstanding DH winner
- MLB 2026 NL Cy Young winner
- MLB 2026 AL Cy Young winner
- MLB 2026 NL MVP
- MLB 2026 AL MVP
- MLB NL Rookie of the Year
- MLB AL Rookie of the Year
How Polymarket differs from sportsbooks
While there are certainly similarities between trading on Polymarket and placing wagers with a sportsbook, they operate very differently in how transactions are structured, executed and regulated. Let’s take a closer look at what differentiates Polymarket from sportsbooks.
Who you’re trading against: In traditional sports betting, you place wagers against a sportsbook—often called “the house.” If your bet loses, the sportsbook keeps your stake. On Polymarket, though, trading happens in a peer-to-peer marketplace between users. When you buy a contract, you’re taking the opposite side of another user’s position. And if you want to sell that contract, another user has to agree to buy it for you to complete the trade. While Polymarket does charge transaction fees, it doesn’t profit from users’ losses the way a sportsbook does.
Pricing and implied odds: In regular sports betting, the odds are set by experts called oddsmakers. They include a built-in extra charge for the sportsbook, known as the “vig,” which helps the house make money over time no matter what happens. Polymarket, however, works differently. Prices are decided by the people trading — similar to how stock prices change. As more users buy or sell contracts based on new updates, like player injuries or changing personnel, the prices move up and down in real time.
Trading flexibility: When you place a bet with a sportsbook, you usually can’t change it once it’s made — you just wait for the result and hope you win. Some sportsbooks might let you “cash out” early before or during a game, but that’s not always an option. On Polymarket, it’s different. You can buy or sell your contracts anytime before the market closes. This means if new information comes out that changes the chances of an outcome, you can adjust your position whenever you want.
Types of markets: With sportsbooks, your wagering options are typically limited to sports as the name would suggest. With Polymarket, though, you can typically find markets on anything from politics to entertainment to science and everything in between.
Technology and currency: Sportsbooks operate on traditional centralized servers with the company controlling all funds. Polymarket, though, is block-chain based with all transactions being made transparently. Sportsbooks use currencies such as the USD and EUR, while Polymarket uses cryptocurrency only, specifically USDC stablecoin.
Legal status and regulation: Sports betting laws can be different state by state, and there are also some states that don’t allow legal sports betting at all. Polymarket is regulated by the federal government, though, so there aren’t different rules in each state. Polymarket is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which considers it a financial exchange. So, Polymarket may be an available option even if sports betting is illegal in a given state.
Limits and restrictions: Sportsbooks are known to limit and even ban bettors who have had too much success on their platform. This is their way of trying to limit “sharp” bettors. With prediction markets, though, there really aren’t any similar restrictions.
Polymarket pros and cons
When deciding which prediction market platform to use, it only makes sense to go through the pros and cons. Let’s take a look at the pros first.
- Real-time accuracy
- No edge for “the house”
- Trading flexibility
- No fees on trading
- Variety of markets
- No limits
- Transparency and security
What are some of the cons associated with the Polymarket platform?
- Crypto learning curve
- Restricted in some states
- Regulatory uncertainty
- Customer support (reports show slow responsiveness)
- Tax issues
- Limited history
- Insider trading concerns