No NBA Draft pick is a guarantee, as some former general managers can tell you, but there is no doubt some prospects are safer bets than others.
Teams picking at the top of the draft typically aim for high-ceiling, high-floor players: players they are confident will have a long NBA career but have the chance to become stars.
Very few of these players are actually available in each draft, however. After the first few picks, teams are often forced to choose between high-risk players with low floors and high ceilings or high-floor players who have a low chance of becoming stars but a high chance of being a quality player long-term.
Who are this year’s safest NBA Draft prospects? Here are six players who don’t come with significant risk.
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Safest NBA Draft picks in 2026
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Cameron Boozer, Duke
- Age: 18, freshman
- Position: Power forward
- Measurements: 6-9, 255 pounds
There is next to no doubt Boozer is going to have a long and successful NBA career. In most drafts, he might be the No. 1 overall pick. Holding him back this year is the presence of potential superstars AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson and some concerns about his athleticism as he prepares to go up against bigger and stronger players.
While a lack of elite athleticism could hold him back from becoming an All-NBA First Team type of player, Boozer is likely too skilled and too versatile of a player to be anything other than a franchise cornerstone.
Bennett Stirtz, Iowa
- Age: 22, senior
- Position: Point guard
- Measurements: 6-4, 190 pounds
Stirtz might not become a star in the NBA, but he has all of the intangibles and skills to be a quality player for a long time. From the Division II level to the Elite Eight at Iowa, Stirtz managed to stand out offensively in a system that prioritized as slow of an offense as possible.
With virtually no intimidating offensive pieces around him, Stirtz scored more than 21 points per game as a senior and shot the ball efficiently even while going up against some of the top teams in the nation. A very smart player and excellent passer, Stirtz can overcome a lack of elite athleticism and be a quality NBA point guard for the next decade-plus.
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AJ Dybantsa, BYU
- Age: 19, freshman
- Position: Small forward
- Measurements: 6-9, 215 pounds
There might be some debate as to what Dybantsa’s NBA ceiling truly is, but there shouldn’t be any debate over his ability to be a franchise cornerstone at the next level. Whether in Washington D.C. or elsewhere, Dybantsa is coming into the league with an unbelievable offensive profile and a tremendous blend of size and athleticism. What kind of shooter Dybantsa becomes will be key to his future, but even if the development in that department isn’t what his team wants it to be, the rest of his game is so polished that the BYU star is as safe as any prospect this year.
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Aday Mara, Michigan
- Age: 21, junior
- Position: Center
- Measurements: 7-3, 255 pounds
They say you can’t teach height, and after Victor Wembanyama’s run to the NBA Finals, there is no question Mara’s height is going to intrigue teams. At 7-3 barefoot, Mara anchored Michigan’s defense this past season, consistently disrupting shots in the paint and averaging 2.6 blocks per game. Mara also made significant progress offensively, shooting close to 67 percent with the Wolverines.
Mara isn’t a unicorn like Wembanyama and has questions to answer about his quickness given his massive frame, but he’s a near-lock to have a productive career in some form and could have teams wondering why they passed on such a physical specimen a few years down the line.
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Caleb Wilson, North Carolina
- Age: 19, freshman
- Position: Power forward
- Measurements: 6-10, 210 pounds
Wilson is generally considered to be in the second tier of prospects after Dybantsa, Peterson and Boozer, but the gap isn’t massive by any means. While there are questions about Wilson’s strength as he tries to bulk up a thin frame, his skill set is terrific. The North Carolina star proved to be a dynamic scorer even without being much of a 3-point shooter, and his effort level on defense was impressive for a freshman. Teams will debate Wilson’s potential for stardom, but it would be a major surprise if his skillset and work ethic didn’t translate to a long, successful NBA career.
Christian Anderson, Texas Tech
- Age: 20, sophomore
- Position: Point guard
- Measurements: 6-2, 180 pounds
Much like Mara is entering the league at a great time with the backdrop of Wembanyama, maybe Anderson is also entering at an ideal time after an undersized Jalen Brunson’s championship run. Anderson likely doesn’t have the strength to get to the basket like Brunson, but all that’s keeping him out of the lottery is his size. A tremendous shooter with a high basketball IQ and high motor, Anderson is too talented not to at least carve out a quick role off the bench and could have the offensive game to become a long-term starter in an NBA backcourt.