VegasInsider.com has been monitoring odds data of more than 20 bookmakers, creating an average on who will be the next 007 in the upcoming James Bond movie.
A few weeks ago, Henry Cavill replaced Regé-Jean Page at the top of the 007 list, and he is currently still holding on to the first spot as the most likely to take over Daniel Craig’s role with odds of 61/24, implied probability 28.24%. “Cavill is everywhere right now – Enola Holmes 2, the recent announcement of season 3 of The Witcher… He is also set to star in the Matthew Vaughn spy thriller Argylle, which is supposed to come out in 2023. It will definitely be interesting to see how that will affect the odds in the upcoming months,” says a VegasInsider spokesperson.
In the latest update, James Norton moved past Regé-Jean Page as the second most likely 007 with odds of 57/14, implied probability: 19.72%. “Norton has been in the top 5 for the last few months, but this time around he finally cracked the top 3. It will be interesting to see how his position changes in the next few weeks,” says a VegasInsider spokesperson. Norton is currently filming the Nick Pearce drama, Men of Divorce.
Regé-Jean Page, Bridgerton breakout star, is not far behind in the third spot with odds of 23/5, implied probability 17.86%. “Page is still in a great position,” says a VegasInsider spokesperson. “He had his big breakthrough, yet he is a fresh face and young enough to be able to potentially commit to the role for a long time, which is what the producers want according to the latest reports.”
In spite of the reports that Idris Elba has dropped out of the running for the next Bond, his odds remain high with the bookies, still holding on firmly to the fourth place with odds of 89/12, implied probability: 11.88%. VegasInsider spokesperson comments: “The people really like Idris Elba, and lots of them expressed their frustrations on social media following the reports of him dropping out, which is probably why he is still so high on the list. Fans are not losing all of their hopes yet!”
Tom Hardy is in 5th place with odds of 15/2 (implied probability: 11.76%). “Hardy has maintained his position in the top 5 for a while, but he might move higher once his new projects are released – he has a few, “ comments a VegasInsider spokesperson. Hardy is set to star in Havoc, an action thriller which is supposed to be released this year, and the 3rd instalment of his hit Venom is in pre-production;
A VegasInsider spokesperson comments on the rest of the top 20 contenders: “The top 20 is going up and down. Some people that were out a few weeks ago are back in, we have some newcomers – Oscar Isaac, Luke Bracey – but it is important to watch these names because the producers don’t always go with the obvious choice. They like the element of shock. Daniel Craig also wasn’t the expected choice back in the day.”
See the full top 20 list below:
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12 October 2022 |
27 September 2022 |
12 September 2022 |
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|
Ranking |
Name |
Fractional odds |
Implied Probability |
Name |
Fractional odds |
IP |
Name |
Fractional Odds |
IP |
|
1. |
Henry Cavill (=) |
61/24 |
28.24% |
Henry Cavill (=) |
69/28 |
28.87% |
Henry Cavill |
65/28 |
30.11% |
|
2. |
James Norton (+3) |
57/14 |
19.72% |
Rege-Jean Page (=) |
55/14 |
20.29% |
Rege-Jean Page |
4/1 |
20% |
|
3. |
Rege-Jean Page (-1) |
23/5 |
17.86% |
Idris Elba (=) |
33/7 |
17.50% |
Idris Elba |
9/2 |
18.18% |
|
4. |
Idris Elba (-1) |
89/12 |
11.88% |
Tom Hardy (=) |
41/7 |
14.58% |
Tom Hardy |
85/14 |
14.14% |
|
5. |
Tom Hardy (-1) |
15/2 |
11.76% |
James Norton (=) |
69/7 |
9.21% |
James Norton |
68/7 |
9.33% |
|
6. |
Aidan Turner (=) |
25/3 |
10.71% |
Aidan Turner (=) |
80/7 |
8.05% |
Aidan Turner |
80/7 |
8.05% |
|
7-8. |
Oscar Isaac (NEW) |
10 |
9.09% |
Luke Evans (+19) |
85/7 |
7.61% |
Michael Fassbender |
108/7 |
6.09% |
|
7-8. |
Jonathan Bailey (REENTRY) |
10 |
9.09% |
Callum Turner (+7) |
82/5 |
5.75% |
Jamie Dornan |
47/3 |
6% |
|
9. |
Callum Turner (-1) |
56/5 |
8.2% |
Richard Madden (+1) |
118/7 |
5.60% |
Chiwetel Ejiofor |
16/1 |
5.88% |
|
10. |
Jack Lowden (+6) |
34/3 |
8.11% |
Michael Fassbender (-3) |
121/7 |
5.47% |
Richard Madden |
124/7 |
5.34% |
|
11. |
Richard Madden (-1) |
35/3 |
7.89% |
Jamie Dornan (-3) |
35/2 |
5.41% |
Cillian Murphy |
134/7 |
4.96% |
|
12. |
Luke Evans (-5) |
43/3 |
6.52% |
Cillian Murphy (-1) |
134/7 |
4.96% |
Jamie Bell |
141/7 |
4.73% |
|
13. |
Chiwetel Ejiofor (=) |
87/5 |
5.43% |
Chiwetel Ejiofor (-4) |
20/1 |
4.76% |
Tom Hopper |
43/2 |
4.44% |
|
14. |
Michael Fassbender (-4) |
109/6 |
5.22% |
Jamie Bell (-2) |
145/7 |
4.61% |
Sam Heughan |
153/7 |
4.37% |
|
15. |
Tom Hopper (=) |
85/4 |
4.49% |
Tom Hopper (-2) |
43/2 |
4.44% |
Jack Lowden |
158/7 |
4.24% |
|
16. |
Cillian Murphy (-4) |
67/3 |
4.29% |
Jack Lowden (-1) |
158/7 |
4.24% |
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau |
25/1 |
3.85% |
|
17. |
Jamie Bell (-3) |
45/2 |
4.26% |
Sam Heughan (-3) |
23/1 |
4.17% |
Callum Turner |
131/5 |
3.68% |
|
18. |
Jamie Dornan (-7) |
47/2 |
4.08% |
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (-2) |
25/1 |
3.85% |
Sope Dirisu |
28/1 |
3.45% |
|
19. |
Luke Bracey (NEW) |
25 |
3.85% |
Lydia West (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
Lydia West |
33/1 |
2.94% |
|
20. |
Sam Heughan (-3) |
151/6 |
3.82% |
Luke Pasqualino (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
Luke Pasqualino |
33/1 |
2.94% |
|
TNia Miller (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
TNia Miller |
33/1 |
2.94% |
||||
|
Tahar Rahim (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
Tahar Rahim |
33/1 |
2.94% |
||||
|
Suranne Jones (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
Suranne Jones |
33/1 |
2.94% |
||||
|
Ben Hardy (=) |
33/1 |
2.94% |
Ben Hardy |
33/1 |
2.94% |
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Disclaimer: The odds posted in this article are for illustrative purposes only. The data was based on betting markets offered by European operators in jurisdictions where wagering on these props is legal.
credit VegasInsider.com