The Jaguars have long been the presumed winners of the AFC South, but all of a sudden, they are facing a couple of challengers for the divisional crown.
The AFC South race further tightened in Week 15, as the Colts and Texans both managed to win ahead of the Jaguars’ “Sunday Night Football” game against the Ravens. With Jacksonville falling in prime time, the three teams are locked into a tie atop the division.
The Colts’ victory was an impressive one. They played against the Steelers on Saturday and won 30-13. They scored the final 30 points of that contest and ran roughshod on Pittsburgh despite being without Zack Moss, who suffered an arm injury, for most of the game.
Houston also pulled off a shorthanded win. The Texans were without quarterback C.J. Stroud and top receiver Nico Collins against the Titans, but Case Keenum managed to lead the team to a come-from-behind, overtime win over Tennessee during which they limited Derrick Henry to just nine yards on 16 carries.
The Colts and the Texans remain in the thick of the AFC wild-card race, but each will set their sights on overtaking the Jaguars to win the AFC South.
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Here’s what to know about one of the NFL’s most competitive division races as the season’s stretch run arrives.
AFC South standings
Sunday night’s loss to the Ravens dropped the Jaguars into a three-way tie atop the AFC South, with Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston all possessing an 8-6 record.
Below is a look at how the division presently shakes out:
| Place | Team | Record |
| 1 | Jaguars | 8-6 |
| 2 | Colts | 8-6 |
| Texans | 8-6 | |
| 4 | Titans | 5-9 |
The Jaguars remain in control of the AFC South even with the loss. Why? Because they have a record of 4-1 against the division. That’s better than the record of the Colts (3-2) and the Texans (2-2).
That said, the Texans still have two games remaining against divisional foes. That would at least give them a chance to get to four wins against the division and potentially match the Jaguars.
Even still, that would require the Jaguars to lose another game against the division. So, that doesn’t appear to be likely.
So, how could the Colts or Texans overtake the Jaguars? It would require Jacksonville to lose at least one of the remaining games on its schedule, in addition to Sunday night’s game against the Ravens.
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Jaguars remaining schedule
The Jaguars enter Week 16 with three left to play during the 2023 NFL season. Their remaining opponents have a combined record of 24-30, good for a .444 winning percentage.
Below is a full look at the team’s schedule.
| Week | Opponent | Record |
| 16 | at Buccaneers | 7-7 |
| 17 | vs. Panthers | 2-12 |
| 18 | at Titans | 5-9 |
Tampa Bay is Jacksonville’s toughest remaining opponent after their game against the Ravens is played. So, fans of the Colts and the Texans will be rooting hard for Baker Mayfield and Co. when that game is played.
Colts remaining schedule
Of course, a Jaguars loss is only beneficial to the Colts or Texans if they can win out. Indianapolis’ remaining opponents have a combined record of 20-22, good for a slightly below average .476 strength of schedule.
Below is a look at the Colts’ remaining schedule.
| Week | Opponent | Record |
| 16 | at Falcons | 6-8 |
| 17 | vs. Raiders | 6-8 |
| 18 | vs. Texans | 8-6 |
The Colts will likely be favored against both the Falcons and Raiders. They also beat the Texans 31-20 early in the season, so it’s possible that they could win their final three games to finish 11-6.
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Texans remaining schedule
The Texans have a slightly tougher close to the season. They will be playing against the nine-win Browns in Week 16 and then get two divisional opponents to close the season. Overall, their remaining strength of schedule is .524, as their opponents have a combined record of 22-20.
Below is a look at the Texans’ remaining schedule.
| Week | Opponent | Record |
| 16 | vs. Browns | 9-5 |
| 17 | vs. Titans | 5-9 |
| 18 | at Colts | 8-6 |
Houston still has a path to the postseason, but it will need to overcome tough challenges against the Browns and Colts to make that happen. And beating the Titans for a second time in three weeks won’t prove easy, though C.J. Stroud’s return could help make that happen.