The Colts and the Texans have both been scrapping to overtake the Jaguars in the AFC South over the last month, but they couldn’t quite do it on Sunday.
Indianapolis and Houston both played in the 1 p.m. ET window of Week 16. With a win, either of them would have momentarily leapfrogged the Jaguars in the standings; that advantage could have lasted if Jacksonville fell in an interconference clash with the Buccaneers.
Instead, both the Colts and Texans came up short of their goals. Indianapolis struggled against a reeling Atlanta squad that had lost five of its last seven games. The Colts weren’t able to force the Falcons into any turnovers — something that had become customary for Indianapolis’ defense — so that allowed Atlanta to operate a balanced, efficient offense in a 29-10 Falcons win.
Meanwhile, the Texans couldn’t contain Joe Flacco and the Browns’ offense. He threw for 357 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in a 36-22 victory during which Amari Cooper caught 11 passes for 265 yards and two scores. Houston, without C.J. Stroud for a second consecutive game, failed to generate an offensive score in the ugly defeat.
The losses by the Colts and Texans created an opportunity for the Jaguars to take control of the division with a win over the Buccaneers. But even with a loss, Jacksonville would be guaranteed to remain in first place.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 16
Here’s what to know about the AFC South race and why the ball will still be in the Jaguars’ court exiting Week 16.
AFC South standings
The Jaguars entered Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season in first place in the AFC South. They will remain atop the division regardless of their result against the Buccaneers in the late-afternoon window.
Below is a look at how the AFC South standings shake out at present:
| Place | Team | Record |
| 1 | Jaguars | 8-6 |
| 2 | Colts | 8-7 |
| Texans | 8-7 | |
| 4 | Titans | 5-10 |
The Jaguars currently hold a half-a-game lead in the AFC South entering their game against the Buccaneers. They can extend it to one with a win or drop the division into a three-way tie again with a loss.
That said, Jacksonville owns tiebreakers over the Colts and Texans that will give it the advantage in any three-way tie. The Jaguars have swept their season series against the Colts and have a better divisional record than the Texans — 4-1 compared to 2-2.
So, Jacksonville will remain the team to beat in the divisional race even if Tampa Bay wins the clubs’ matchup. And with a victory, the Jaguars would go a long way toward sealing their fate as the division winner and the likely No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
LIVE: Updated clinching scenarios for all NFL teams in Week 16
Jaguars remaining schedule
The Jaguars have a favorable schedule over the final two weeks. They get to play the Panthers, who sport the league’s worst record, and the Titans, who haven’t performed well this season.
Below is a look at their final contests of the season:
| Week | Team | Record |
| 17 | vs. Panthers | 2-13 |
| 18 | at Titans | 5-10 |
Jacksonville’s remaining strength of schedule mark of .233 will be among the easiest in the league. So, the Jaguars should remain the AFC South favorites even amid their recent downturn.
Colts remaining schedule
The Colts have a more difficult-looking schedule to close the season. They have to play a respectable Raiders team before playing the Texans in a game that could have a massive impact on the AFC South and AFC wild-card races.
Below is a look at their final two contests of the season:
| Week | Team | Record |
| 17 | vs. Raiders | 6-8 |
| 18 | vs. Texans | 8-7 |
Indianapolis’ strength of schedule (.483) is still slightly below average, however, so the Colts will have a chance to make a playoff push. And playing each of their final two games at home will only benefit their final charge.
IYER: Power ranking the NFL’s MVP candidates for 2023, from Brock Purdy to Christian McCaffrey
Texans remaining schedule
The Texans are playing two divisional opponents over the final two weeks of the season. They get to play the Titans — who rank last in the division — and the Colts in what could be a win-and-in contest.
Below is a look at Houston’s final two games of the season:
| Week | Team | Record |
| 17 | vs. Titans | 5-10 |
| 18 | at Colts | 8-7 |
Houston’s remaining strength of schedule mark of .433 is below average and is easier than that of the Colts. That should give the Texans the edge on Indianapolis, but an unexpected loss to the Titans could put them in a precarious position in a tightly packed AFC.