The first round of 2025 NCAA March Madness Tournament takes place Thursday and Friday. Those two days kick off college basketball’s most wonderful time of the year, and there are several upsets during the early-round games each and every season.
One of those potential upsets could be No. 13 Akron over No. 4 Arizona, which tips off Friday evening.
The Wildcats (22-12) have made it to the Big Dance for a third straight year, whereas the Zips (28-6) are in their third tournament in four seasons.
Let’s take a look at the matchup and see if there’s a potential upset in-play here. Here is everything to know about the matchup between Arizona and Akron, including metrics, rankings, key players, season breakdowns and more.
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Arizona vs. Akron Odds
Arizona is a huge favorite in this one, checking in as a 14.5-point favorite, via DraftKings.
- Odds: Arizona -1100
- Date: Friday, March 21
- Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV
- Arena: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
WATCH: No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron on truTV with Sling
Arizona (22-12, 14-6 in Big 12)
Arizona looked more like a bubble team in non-conference play, but a strong stretch of play in the Big 12 put the Wildcats in a strong position entering the heart of March. After back-to-back-to-back disappointing exits, can this NCAA Tournament be different?
The Wildcats’ greatest asset might be depth, as Tommy Lloyd has a strong 8-man rotation full of players who know how to score. Arizona averages 81.7 points per game, 22nd in the nation. This team passes the ball well and has plenty of capable rebounders, ranking 18th nationally in rebounds per game.
The concern, as anyone who watched Arizona’s Sweet 16 loss to Clemson last year knows, is Caleb Love’s inconsistency as a shooter. For all of his impressive nights, Love is still only shooting 32.3% from deep – and that’s almost exactly in line with the Wildcats’ mark as a team. Arizona has plenty of players who can score in spurts, but finding a go-to scorer when Love is off might be difficult.
After an impressive stretch from January into February, Arizona dropped five of its last eight Big 12 regular season games. Some losses were excusable – it’s hard for any team to win at Iowa State or Houston – but the Wildcats allowed 100 points to Arizona State and 96 to BYU during that stretch. The Wildcats allowed 71 points per game in 2022-23, 72 in 2023-24 and now 72.4 in 2024-25. Considering the way those tournament runs ended, Arizona’s defense is a vulnerability worth watching this March.
- NET ranking: 12th
- KenPom ranking: 14th
- Quad 1 record: 10-11
- Quad 2 record: 4-1
- Quad 3 record: 4-0
- Quad 4 record: 4-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 12th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 33rd
Key players
Caleb Love, G, Sr. (6-4, 195): 16.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg
Jaden Bradley, G, Jr. (6-3, 195): 11.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.7 apg
KJ Lewis, G, So. (6-4, 205): 10.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.9 apg
Tobe Awaka, F, So. (6-8, 250): 8.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 0.7 bpg
Trey Townsend, F, Fr. (6-6, 212): 8.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.0 apg
— Dan Treacy
Akron (28-6, 17-1 in MAC)
James Madison and Grand Canyon had something in common when they pulled off upset wins in the NCAA Tournament last year: offense, offense and more offense. Buckets translate anywhere, and Akron gets buckets.
The Zips lost just one game in MAC play and averaged 84.6 points per game this season, ranking top-60 nationally in field goal percentage and 61st in 3-point percentage. Akron’s 74.6 possessions per game rank 13th in the nation, so their blazing pace could disrupt any team that isn’t accustomed to such a high-flying style of basketball. Akron is also 24th nationally in rebounds, so this group consistently gives itself opportunities.
It took some time for Akron to put it all together this season, suffering losses to Milwaukee and Arkansas State in non-conference play, but the Zips came within a point of taking down St. Mary’s and were a perfect 18-0 in Quad 4 games.
Akron doesn’t rely too heavily on one player; the Zips have shooters all over the floor and a nine-man rotation. Nate Johnson, however, is the key cog in the engine. Johnson is Akron’s leading scorer, adding five rebounds and just under two steals per game, and he scored seven of the team’s final nine points in a comeback win over Miami (OH) in the MAC title game.
With 11 different 90-point games under their belt, the Zips shouldn’t be easily rolled over in the first round. If they can adjust the game to their pace, an upset becomes much more likely.
- NET ranking: 91st
- KenPom ranking: 99th
- Quad 1 record: 0-1
- Quad 2 record: 1-2
- Quad 3 record: 7-3
- Quad 4 record: 18-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 66th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 183rd
Key players
Nate Johnson, G, Sr. (6-3, 204): 14.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.5 apg
Tavari Johnson, G, Jr. (5-11, 155): 13.0 ppg, 3.9 apg, 39.2% 3-pt
Isaiah Gray, G, Sr. (6-3, 210): 9.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.5 apg
Shammah Scott, C, Sr. (6-2, 180): 9.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg
James Okonkwo, F, Sr. (6-8, 230): 7.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.9 bpg
— Dan Treacy
Arizona vs. Akron Prediction
Arizona made it to the Sweet 16 last season, one year after getting bounced in the first round. This Wildcat team has been playing great basketball so far in March, which is a great recipe for any NCAA tourney team.
Caleb Love is playing in his final season of college basketball, and will be eager to lead this Wildcat team deep into the tournament. Although Arizona struggled this season against non-conference teams, it found its stride while playing in a deep Big 12.
While Akron has had a great season, including a 12-1 record dating back to February, this Wildcats team is going to be too much for the Zips. Arizona’s offense, led by Love, Bradley and Lewis will go to the basket a lot during this game, and it’ll be plenty to overpower this Zips defense.
No. 13 seeds upsetting No. 4 seeds doesn’t happen too often, either.
History of No. 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament
Picking a No. 13 seed to upset a No. 4 seed isn’t too common when filling out brackets. That’s likely because we’ve seen just 23 No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985. That’s a 23-133 record, or 14.74 win percentage. One of the most shocking was last year’s Oakland team knocking off Kentucky in the first round.
Here’s a look back at all the 13 over 4 upsets since 2010:
| Year | Result |
| 2024 | Oakland 80, Kentucky 76 |
| 2023 | Furman 68, Virginia 67 |
| 2021 | Ohio 62, Virginia 58 |
| 2021 | North Texas 78, Purdue 69 |
| 2019 | UC Irvine 70, Kansas State 64 |
| 2018 | Marshall 81, Wichita State 75 |
| 2018 | Buffalo 89, Arizona 69 |
| 2016 | Hawaii 77, California 66 |
| 2013 | La Salle 63, Kansas State 61 |
| 2012 | Ohio 65, Michigan 60 |
| 2011 | Morehead State 62, Louisville 61 |
| 2010 | Murray State 66, Vanderbilt 65 |