No. 5 Oklahoma State meets No. 9 Baylor in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex. The game will be televised on ABC.
Oklahoma State (11-1) is in good position to make the College Football Playoff with a victory. Mike Gundy has done that with a defense that allows 281.4 yards per game. The Cowboys broke a six-game losing streak to rival Oklahoma last week and could slide into that fourth playoff spot with a conference championship.
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Baylor (10-2) will look to play spoiler under second-year coach Dave Aranda. The Bears rank eighth in the FBS with a rushing offense that puts up 227.4 yards per game. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon (hamstring) remains questionable for the game. The Bears lost in their only Big 12 championship appearance in 2019.
The early kickoff makes it a tone setter for championship Saturday. With that in mind, here is everything you need to know about betting on the Cowboys and Bears.
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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State odds
- Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5
- Over/under: 46.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma State -225, Baylor +180
Three trends to know
— The Cowboys have been kind to bettors this season. Oklahoma State is 9-3 ATS, and that includes a record of 6-1 ATS with single-digit spreads. The line was -3.5 when the Cowboys beat Baylor 24-14 on Oct. 2.
— Oklahoma State has won the last two meetings by double-digits, but the series has been relatively even. The Cowboys and Bears have split 12 meetings since 2010.
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— The Bears are 8-4 ATS this season under Aranda, and they are 3-1 S/U and 3-1 ATS as underdogs. The only loss was to Oklahoma State.
Three things to watch
— Will Bohanon play? Aranda has played it coy when discussing Bohanon’s status. The junior quarterback missed last week’s game against Texas Tech, and backup Blake Sharpen passed for 254 yards and two TDs in his place. Bohanon was limited to 186 total yards in the first meeting against Oklahoma State, and the Bears averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.
— Oklahoma State playing smash-mouth? That’s what they did in the last meeting. Jaylen Warren had 36 carries for 125 yards and a pair of TDs. Spencer Sanders added 76 rushing yards, but he also threw three interceptions. Warren averaged 16.5 carries in the Cowboys’ last six games. This feels like a game where he could have between 25-30 rushing attempts. Oklahoma State averaged 3.7 yards per career in the last meeting, too, they just had 30 more attempts.
— Chess match. Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles are among the five finalists for the Broyles Award, which is given to the top assistant coach in the FBS. Knowles won the first battle. What adjustments will Grimes make to get that Bears’ rushing attack going, especially if Bohanon is out? Oklahoma has a trio of defensive players with at least six sacks in Collin Oliver (9.5 sacks), Devin Harper (6.0 sacks) and Brock Martin (6.0 sacks).
Stat that matters
We mentioned Oklahoma State’s third-down defense before Bedlam last week, and the Sooners were 5 of 18 on third down. Oklahoma State limits opponents to a 24.7% conversion rate on third down, which is the best in the FBS. Baylor is not that far behind at 12th with a 32.1% rate. On offense, Oklahoma State ranks 43rd at 42.7% and Baylor ranks 54th at 41.6%.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State prediction
Bohanon’s status will be a storyline, but it might not matter. Oklahoma State will rely on the running game with Sanders and Warren. Baylor needs to get Abram Smith on track in this one, and they will show a few new wrinkles in the passing game. If Sanders avoids turnovers, then Oklahoma State should be able to play with a lead. That will be the difference in the game. Will it be the difference for the final playoff spot?
Final score: Oklahoma State 30, Baylor 23