Welcome to another installment of our Wednesday NBA Prop-A-Shot series, where we unveil our favorite prop bets of the night before following all of the action live. What’s on tap tonight? A loaded 12-game slate featuring LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Scottie Barnes, and much more. Here’s how this works:
- Before the first games tip, we share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the night.
- During the live window, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines or surprising developments in the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the course of the night. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered!
Remember to check back throughout the evening for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude. Our Prop-A-Shot bets have gone 20-14 through the first two weeks of the series, a nearly 60-percent success rate. Let’s keep the money train rolling and cash in on some over/under bets before and during tonight’s action!
Good luck, have fun, Happy New Year, and may the odds be forever in your favor!
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Updates, live betting advice from the 8:00 p.m. games
8:20 p.m.: Zion Williamson has drawn fouls from Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jaden McDaniels in the first five minutes of the Pelicans-Wolves game and it’s 16-10 Pels. We’re so happy we got NOLA +6.5 earlier. It’s down to +3 now.
Updates, live betting advice from the 7:00 p.m. games
8:30 p.m.: Four minutes into the second half, the Pacers have stormed out to an eight-point lead over the Bucks. WHOA. Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley are getting eaten alive by Bruce Brown and Tyrese Haliburton. We’re starting to worry about Milwaukee’s ability to get this W. Indy seems like Giannis Kryptonite.
8:15 p.m.: At halftime in Indiana, the Bucks are up 68-66. Giannis has 10-6-4, so he’s creeping up slowly but surely. Watch him finish with 33-14-6 or something absurd. Give the Pacers credit — they shot 5-of-16 from three-point land and stayed right with Milwaukee all half. The Bucks have taken such a massive step down defensively, and Brook Lopez hates every second of it.
8:10 p.m.: The Hawks just put 39 points on the Thunder in the first quarter. They lead OKC 39-25. Plenty of value in the Thunder +9.5 here — this is a 23-9 Thunder team against a 13-19 ATL team.
7:55 p.m.: We’ve seen 11 lead changes and three ties in the Bucks-Pacers game, and the Bucks are up 50-49 with 5:00 left in the first half. Giannis has somehow only scored five points. If Milwaukee stops joshing around, they should completely take over this game.
7:34 p.m.: Somehow Giannis Antetokounmpo only took ONE SHOT the entire first quarter, and it was with five seconds remaining in the quarter. Thank goodness we advocated for his rebounding OVER and mentioned that we were only lukewarm on his massive points OVER. That’s about as lackluster a frame as Giannis will ever have: 2-2-1. Pacers up 33-31. If you haven’t hammered the Bucks to win by now, do so. They’re at -145 on the moneyline and -2.5 ATS.
7:20 p.m.: The Cavaliers have hit six of their first seven three-point attempts, and yet they’re down 23-22. This game has already crept up to 251.5 total points, which lends fantastic value to the UNDER. Cleveland isn’t capable of maintaining this level of three-point shooting, and Washington isn’t capable of staying with Cleveland offensively. Smash the UNDER.
7:15 p.m: The Pacers have gotten out to a great start, shooting 6-of-7 from the field to go up 13-8. The Bucks will pick it up defensively, though, so now is a good time to get in on Milwaukee’s -125 live moneyline. Even as I’m done writing this update, the Bucks have tied the game 13-13.
Giannis Antetokounmpo points, rebounds
- Best bet: OVER 12.5 rebounds (-145); Lukewarm bet: OVER 36 points
- Bucks at Pacers — 7:00 p.m. (Fubo, NBA League Pass)
Did we just do that!? Did we just highlight an OVER of 36 points and 12.5 rebounds? Man, 2024 is already a wild and crazy time. But, what can we say? Giannis has been even more of a Freak than ever, gobbling up gargantuan stat lines all season. He scored 37 three times in December and averaged 32.5 PPG in the month. He has cleared 13-plus boards in six of Milwaukee’s past 10 games and had a whopping 18 his last time out against Indiana.
These squads have developed quite the rivalry — Indiana knocked the Bucks out of the In-Season Tournament last month and got the better of Adrian Griffin’s team on New Year’s Day. However, the Pacers really have no answer for the size, strength, and physicality Giannis brings to the table. In the four games Milwaukee has faced Indy, the MVP candidate has posted point and rebounding totals of 54/12, 37/12, 64/14, and 30/18. Averaged out, that comes to 46.3/13.5. NBA2K numbers.
Now Antetokounmpo and company are on the heels of a loss to this Pacers squad, so the freight train that wears No. 34 will be rumbling through the paint like never before. Milwaukee has lost two games in a row just once this season, and stands just two games behind the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics.
Indiana also allows an NBA-high 70.8 points from two-pointers, ranks second-worst in rebounding and fouls, and lets opponents shoot an NBA-high 50.3 percent from the line. We’re considering betting both theses OVER props, but we prefer the rebound prop as it yields much more value.
Donovan Mitchell points
- Best bet: OVER 31.5 points (-105)
- Cavaliers vs. Wizards — 7:00 p.m. (Fubo, NBA League Pass)
It sure feels like we’re in for a big Donovan Mitchell game. Spida recently missed four games due to a non-COVID illness, and he immediately torched Milwaukee for 34 points, nine assists, six rebounds, two steals, and a block upon his return.
He cooled off a bit (by his standards) in Toronto his last time out, scoring 26 points to go with seven boards, seven dimes, and four steals. Now he gets to go back home to Cleveland, fresh off the news that he most likely won’t be getting traded to the Knicks now that New York acquired O.G. Anunoby.
The rumblings we’ve seen on the Twittersphere are just that — rumblings — but it sure seems like Mitchell will be staying put and possibly even signing an extension with the Cavs. That would make the Cleveland fanbase ecstatic, and we’re guessing they will be cheering for Spida a little louder this evening.
Five of Mitchell’s seven games with 32-plus points this season have come at home, where he averages nearly three more points than he does on the road. Washington also gives up an NBA-high 126.2 PPG and has a league-worst 121.6 defensive rating, and multiple stars have posted massive nights against the Wiz. Fire up da Spida!
Scottie Barnes rebounds
- Best bet: OVER 9.5 rebounds (+105)
- Raptors at Grizzlies — 8:00 p.m. (Fubo, NBA League Pass)
Barnes has been on a tear all season, but his month of December was especially impressive. Across 13 games last month, the third-year pro averaged 23.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 52.2 percent from the floor and 40.2 percent from distance. Now he draws a Grizzlies squad that has been floundering this season, with Jaren Jackson Jr. looking like a shell of the guy who won 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year honors.
It’s not discussed enough — Memphis misses Steven Adams down low. He’s a far better rebounder than JJJ, a much more physical presence than Santi Aldama, and a more adept offensive asset than Bismack Biyombo. Without the Big Kiwi on the interior, Toronto will be much more likely to get aggressive at and around the hoop. And if Jackson gets into foul trouble for the umpteenth time this season, we expect Barnes to easily hit double-digits while bigger guys like Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam neutralize Biyombo and Aldama.
Luka Dončić points
- Best bet: OVER 32.5 points (-105)
- Mavericks vs. Blazers — 8:30 p.m. (Fubo, NBA League Pass)
Dončić has been an unbelievable force of nature this season, so there’s no telling what kind of damage he will inflict on the hapless defense of the Blazers. He dropped 40 on Chauncey Billups’ squad in a 131-120 Dallas victory on Dec. 16, shooting a cool 15-of-28 from the floor. All said, the MVP candidate averaged 37.5 points, 11.1 assists, and 8.9 rebounds in the month of December.
The Mavs got Kyrie Irving back from injury in their last game against Utah, a 37-point New Year’s Day bloodbath at the hands of Utah. Luka and Kyrie might combine for 80 in this game, as they won’t want to lose two in a row and run the risk of falling behind the rival Suns in the crowded Western Conference standings. Portland gets shellacked tonight — bet Luka’s OVER and Dallas -11.5.
LeBron James points
- Best bet: OVER 27.5 (-120); Second-best bet: Anthony Davis OVER 29.5 (+100)
- Lakers vs. Heat — 10:00 p.m. (ESPN)
The Lakers have fallen into a 17-17 hole, but we all know how motivated King James and AD get when the calendar flips. LBJ is fresh off his 39th birthday and ready to make a run, and he just so happens to draw a Heat squad that’s without Jimmy Butler due to an ankle injury. Expect the modern GOAT and his right-hand Anthony to go HAM this evening on national TV.
James already dropped 30 on his former team once this season, while AD has dropped 31-plus in eight of his past 17 games. The Lakers are well-rested — they last played on New Year’s Eve — and they’re coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of the Pelicans. Miami won’t know what hit it by the end of this game. Bet both stars’ OVERs and back L.A. -5.5.