As the 2022 NFL regular season approaches its final week, plenty of teams still have something to play for this weekend. The playoff-clinching scenarios are mind-bending. This time of year is one of the better stretches for football bettors — not only is the product as a whole much better when the playoff race heats up, but the outcomes are also arguably more predictable than at any other segment of the season. Thus, we are very excited to deliver our first NFL best bets column of 2023.
Outside of teams locked into their playoff seed (Hi, Tom Brady and Hey, Danny Dimes) that might be resting their respective starters, we know what to expect out of most matchups. We have a ton of statistics, betting trends, and game tape to refer to when making our informed betting decisions. This is one of the best times to blitz the bookies and boost our bankroll, truly starting the new year off in style.
Every Wednesday, we meticulously review the betting offerings on BetMGM. We find the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games, typically selecting eight-to-10 wagers that strike us as both interesting and most likely to win you some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to offer you the best advice and give you the greatest odds of achieving weekly betting success.
Last week, we nailed the Jaguars (-3) over the Texans and crushed a Buccaneers’ custom winning-margin prop (1-6 points) at a whopping +300. We also struck gold backing the Patriots (-145) vs. Dolphins and Bucs (-200) vs. Ravens, and we hit the UNDER on Bears-Lions (52) and Eagles-Saints (41.5). Lastly, we swept our player props, with CeeDee Lamb easily clearing 68.5 receiving yards (-115) and Dalton Schultz scoring not just one but two TDs on Thursday Night Football (he was +240 to score anytime).
That’s eight hits, a massive start to what will be a lucrative ’23. It’s the Jordan year, people! Let’s keep the good times rocking and roll into Week 18 like Heather Graham in her Boogie Nights audition. Here are our best bets for Week 18.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
Best NFL Bets Week 18: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Vikings (-6) at Bears (-110)
The Vikings could potentially move up to the No. 2 seed with a win, and the Bears will do their part to aid in that mission, as star QB Justin Fields (hip) will be sidelined for the regular-season finale. There’s nothing left to play for in Chicago and way too much to lose by putting their lone offensive bright spot remaining on the field. The Vikings have too much firepower, and I’m sure it will be a double-digit “W” by the final whistle. Buy a point if you’re weary of backing heavy favorites, but Nathan Peterman doesn’t exactly give me goosebumps.
NFL WEEK 18 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline
Raiders (+10.5) vs. Chiefs (buy a point, -125)
Ten points already seems like a lot to grant a Raiders team that just scored 34 on the No. 1-ranked 49ers defense. Jarrett Stidham clearly has some kind of mind meld with Josh McDaniels, his Vegas coach and former offensive coordinator while the two were in New England. The Chiefs’ front-seven has been strong this season, but their secondary has been as weak as my stomach after a Taco Bell buffet. The Raiders are 6-0 against the spread vs. winning teams, and we’re buying an extra point and backing them to go 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Patrick Mahomes will get Kansas City the big win — and likely solidify his case for NFL MVP — but I don’t think Andy Reid’s squad runs away with this one.
MORE RAIDERS-CHIEFS: Full betting preview
Seahawks (-6) vs. Rams
The Seahawks are in must-win mode after squandering a home meeting with the Jets last week, and the hapless Rams should help the cause for Pete Carroll’s boys. Sean McVay’s squad is also winless ATS in six road games. Even the Rams defense seems to be packing it up and packing it in (and we’re not talking about House of Pain), as they surrendered 31 points to their SoFi Stadium-mate Chargers last week. Now they draw a Seahawks offense that ranks in the top 10 in points per game (24.3). Geno Smith, Rookie of the Year front-runner Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett should be too much for Baker Mayfield and the Rams to keep up with this weekend.
MORE NFL WEEK 18: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 18
Chargers (+145) at Broncos
With the Ravens losing to the Steelers last week, Justin Herbert and company can actually move from the No. 6 seed up to No. 5 with a win this weekend. That one little jump could make a huge difference in the Bolts’ playoff path. With the No. 5 seed, they would play either the Titans or Jaguars. With the No. 6 seed, Los Angeles would play either the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, or Ravens on the road. Let’s just say we think Brandon Staley’s squad gets it done this week despite Denver’s strong defensive unit. Herbert has a full arsenal of weapons healthy, including NFL TD leader Austin Ekeler and the dynamic wideout tandem of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That’s a little too much for Denver’s D to contend with and way too much offense for Russell Wilson to compete with at the tail end of the veteran QB’s worst NFL year.
Jaguars (-275) vs. Titans
There are a plethora of crap moneylines in this week’s slate, so rather than steer you into a volatile pick, I’m bringing you a stone-cold lock with supersized juice on the side. While we don’t usually recommend betting a heavy moneyline favorite with such short odds, we have no legitimate worries about Doug Pederson’s team clinching the AFC South this weekend. Trevor Lawrence has taken a massive leap forward this season, helped in large part by the pass-catching efforts of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. The Jags pack too much of a punch for the young, dicey Titans secondary to contain.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 18
Cowboys at Commanders: OVER 40 (-110)
Dallas has scored 34.6 points per game over the past five weeks, including a 40-piece on the usually stout Eagles defense. Now they have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win this weekend against the division-rival Commanders. Don’t expect a defensive battle here, as Dallas allowed 40 and 34 points to the Jaguars and Eagles in Weeks 15 and 16 and the Commanders have surrendered 61 combined points over the past two weeks. Bet on the ‘Boys to rack the points up against a D.C. squad rolling out rookie QB Sam Howell.
Ravens at Bengals: UNDER 39.5 (-110)
Many variables go into this UNDER pick, just as many variables likely factored into oddsmakers’ projections. For starters, both these teams have operated borderline-elite defenses in the second half of the season. The Ravens offense, meanwhile, is still likely to be without Lamar Jackson (knee) and has been pretty stagnant in the home stretch of the regular season with backup Tyler Huntley. Lastly, the Bengals just endured one of the scariest on-field incidents in NFL history, and it’s tough to imagine Cincinnati’s players are mentally recovered from that scene on Monday, potentially affecting the Bengals’ offensive rhythm.
Lastly, let us offer up big blessings to Damar Hamlin and his family.
Best NFL player prop bet Week 18
To be determined — no player props out yet
Come back Thursday and check out my favorite Week 18 player prop, and then check out my full column of favorite player props for each of the 16 games!