When the Buccaneers (6-8) travel to face the Cardinals (4-10) in the penultimate game of NFL Week 16 on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), they will be more in super survival mode. While Tom Brady and Tampa Bay still has a path to the playoffs via the weak NFC West, Arizona has been eliminated from wild-card contention.
Brady will start against Cardinals QB Trace McSorley, who needs to start for injured Colt McCoy (concussion), who was starting for injured Kyler Murray (knee). Brady’s coach and offensive coordinator, Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich used to be ace assistants in Arizona under Bruce Arians, who coached both teams successfully but winning his Super Bowl ring with Tampa Bay.
Here’s breaking down how well the Bucs can take advantage of this favorable road game to improve its chances of taking its division for a second straight season:
Here’s everything to know about betting on Buccaneers vs. Cardinals in Week 16, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Sunday Night Football.”
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals odds for NFL Christmas game
- Spread: Buccaneers by 7.5
- Over/under: 40.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -375, Cardinals +300
The Buccaneers have seen the line in their favor increase by a field goal with the news of McCoy not playing and McSorley needing to start. The total reflects limited confidence in Brady and the Bucs’ underachieving offense.
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals all-time series
The Cardinals have the slightest edge in 21 meetings, 11-10. The teams last met in 2019, with the pre-Brady Buccaneers winning a shootout, 30-27 in Tampa. Before then, the Cardinals had won three straight, the matchups in 2017, 2016 and 2013.
Three trends to know
—63 percent of spread bettors are jumping on the visiting Buccaneers based a lot on the QB vs. QB situation.
—Total bettors are split 50-50 on the reasonable number, which is still pretty high in relation to most games on the Week 16 schedule.
—The Buccaneers are 3-10 against the spread this season and only 4 games have gone over. The Cardinals are 6-8 ATS with 8 of their games going over.
Three things to watch
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans
The Buccaneers’ wide receivers had their best combined game in a while against the Bengals, despite the loss. The Cardinals have a banged-up pass defense on the back end and Brady should continue to exploit some good cornerback matchups.
James Conner vs. the Buccaneers run defense
Tampa Bay used to be a dominant team against the run. but it has dropped to No. 17 in the NFL, allowing on average 120.2 rushing yards per game. Conner has been the recent lifeblood of Arizona’s offense on the ground and should get heavy volume to help the mobile McSorley. Feeding Conner often is the best way for the Cards to stay in the game.
McSorley vs. the Buccaneers’ pass rush
The Bucs are getting good pressure on the QB despite some secondary issues of their own. They have 40 sacks and Bowles will be aggressive going after the young QB with a variety of blitzes. McSorley will need to use his legs well to get yards or extend pass plays in those situations. He will be helped by how quickly wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown can get open for him.
Stat that matters
37.7 percent vs. 35.8 percent. The Buccaneers have a strong third-down defense, allowing teams to convert at a 37.7 percent clip. The Cardinals are not a great third-down offense, No. 25 in the league and struggled before the QB changes. A few more long sustained drives with Brady should make the difference for Tampa Bay, with enough points minus style points.
Buccaneers vs. Cardinals prediction
The Buccaneers will have the expected offensive success here but because its Brady in 2022, it will be a little more of a grind on the road with some red zone stalling. McSorley and the Cardinals do enough with considerable offensive skill weapons to make the game feel closer than it was with a late score to cut it to a touchdown spread.
Buccaneers 27, Cardinals 20