Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said it best after his team’s wild win over the Celtics on Friday night: “This is the way it should be with these two teams. It should have gone seven games. The margin for error on both sides is so small. There’s no two better words in pro sports than Game 7.”
Miami pushed Boston to a win-or-go-home contest after leaving TD Garden with a hard-fought victory. Jimmy Butler was stellar in the elimination game, totaling 47 points (16-of-29 shooting), nine rebounds, eight assists, four steals and one block.
Now, the pressure is back on the Celtics, a franchise that has reached the Eastern Conference Finals in four of the last six seasons but failed to advance beyond that round each time.
Which East contender will punch its ticket to the NBA Finals?
Here’s everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Heat, including updated odds, trends and predictions for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
MORE: Biggest keys to Game 7 of Eastern Conference Finals
Celtics vs. Heat odds for Eastern Conference Finals Game 7
- Spread: Celtics -2.5
- Over/under: 195.5
- Moneyline: Heat +116, Celtics -136
(Betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Celtics are slight favorites to defeat the Heat in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Three betting trends to watch for Celtics vs. Heat
Can the Celtics limit turnovers?
It’s an obvious point, but it’s an important one. When the Celtics take care of the ball, they win the game.
- Game 1: 16 Celtics turnovers, Loss
- Game 2: 9 Celtics turnovers, Win
- Game 3: 23 Celtics turnovers, Loss
- Game 4: 9 Celtics turnovers, Win
- Game 5: 15 Celtics turnovers, Win
- Game 6: 17 Celtics turnovers, Loss
Yes, Boston managed to win Game 5 despite its turnover issues, but Miami also had a horrendous shooting night (31.9 percent from the field, 15.6 percent on 3-pointers). Overall, the results show that turnovers have been a huge X-factor in this matchup.
On an individual level, Jayson Tatum committed seven turnovers in both Games 1 and 6. Jaylen Brown committed seven turnovers in Game 3. The Celtics will continue to largely run their offense through their two star forwards, so ball security will be key against an aggressive, physical Heat defense.
Is the old Kyle Lowry back?
After missing the start of the Eastern Conference Finals, Lowry returned for Games 3, 4 and 5, and his play was… not inspiring. He averaged 4.7 points, 2.7 assists and 2.3 rebounds in those contests. He went scoreless in Game 5, missing all six of his field goal attempts.
But Lowry looked like his old self in Game 6. He scored 18 points and dished out 10 assists in 37 minutes. He also appeared to be moving with more energy and purpose.
Will the Heat see Good Lowry or Bad Lowry? His performance could swing Game 7.
Will Tyler Herro be available to play?
Multiple players on both teams have been dealing with injuries during this series. At this point, the assumption will be that anyone listed as probable or questionable on the injury report is going to play — except for one Heat guard.
Herro has missed the last three games because of a groin injury. If he can rejoin the rotation, he could make a huge impact on the offensive end. He hasn’t always been consistent or efficient in the postseason, but he could at least take some of the creation burden off Butler’s shoulders.
Celtics vs. Heat expert predictions
Against the spread
Celtics -2.5. Each time the Celtics have lost in the NBA Playoffs, they have won the next game. The last defeat was a rough one considering Boston had a chance to lock up its spot in the NBA Finals on its home floor, but the Celtics also suffered a brutal loss in Game 5 of the second round and bounced back to eliminate the Bucks.
No one should be shocked if the Heat manage to grind out a Game 7 victory, but the bet here is that the Celtics’ depth and talent will ultimately win out.
Over-under
Under 195.5. Historically, Game 7s aren’t shootouts. In the 144 Game 7s in NBA history, the combined scoring average has been 195.9, per StatMuse. This just feels like it will be a classic rock fight with two elite defenses keeping their opponents in the 90s.
Player prop
Jayson Tatum over 36.5 points and rebounds. If you believe the Celtics are going to win Game 7, you probably believe Tatum is going to play a huge part in their success. In two of his past three games, Tatum has cleared this particular prop. With the season on the line, Boston will need him to lead the way once again.