The initial release of the College Football Playoff rankings signifies that the regular season is winding down, which means time is running out in this year’s Underdog Challenge. With only 17 points separating our top three ahead of Week 10, there’s a good chance this year’s contest comes down to the final week of November.
To recap the week that was in the Underdog Challenge, DeCourcy leapfrogged me as the top dog, earning 16.5 points thanks to a pair of Big 12 underdogs (West Virginia and Kansas) both posting 440-plus yards of total offense. I went 1-2 on the week, as my alma mater came through with a program-defining win over the then-undefeated Sooners, keeping me within striking distance of DeCourcy.
Edward gained 7.5 points thanks to Miami of Ohio’s two-touchdown upset over Ohio in the Battle of the Bricks, as he’s not far off the lead either. Bender had an impressive 2-1 week, as he’s making a late-season surge after Arizona (+3) and Arkansas State looked more like favorites than dogs in Week 9.
Despite an 0-3 week from Trocchi, he was extremely close to gaining 18.5 points, as Virginia pushed Miami (FL) to the brink, falling 29-26 in OT.
As a reminder of how the Underdog Challenge works, our experts pick three underdogs to win outright (not just cover the spread). They then earn points equal to the number of points those teams got on the spread if their upsets come to fruition.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Mike DeCourcy | 6-18 | 48.5 |
| 2. | Nick Musial | 8-16 | 46 |
| 3. | Edward Sutelan | 7-17 | 31.5 |
| 4. | Bill Bender | 7-17 | 25 |
| 5. | Bill Trocchi | 2-22 | 6.5 |
MORE: Week 10 against the spread picks
Onto the upsets.
Mike DeCourcy, Senior writer
Cincinnati (+3.5) over UCF
The Bearcats have to win at least one of their Big 12 home games, and this seems like the best opportunity because UCF is no more a Big 12 team than UC is – at least for now. If Cincinnati can win this one, they’ll be plunging past Tuberville territory, and no one associated with this program wants to be anywhere near that neighborhood.
Maryland (+8.5) over Penn State
The schedule has not been kind to the Nittany Lions, to shove three of their most challenging games into a four-week span. They quite obviously struggled with the hangover from their tough loss at Ohio State – and now they’re supposed to focus on playing at a high level in a road game against a solid team with Michigan peeking over the horizon? (And, no, nothing was being implied through the use of the word “peeking”. But I suppose it could be inferred).
USC (+3) over Washington
Oh my goodness, how much fun this will be. Two of the year’s most gifted college quarterbacks facing two defenses that are — how do we put this nicely? – not two of the year’s best? We saw what the burden of being unbeaten did to Oklahoma last week against Kansas. This week, it’s UW’s turn.
BENDER: CFP rankings: OSU rightfully No.1
Bill Trocchi, Senior editor
Oklahoma State (+6) over Oklahoma
This will be a popular pick, and it feels very trappy. Oklahoma State has been playing great, OU nearly lost to UCF, did lose to Kansas, and is still giving six on the road to a team it is tied with for first place in the Big 12? Open the trap door. I’m falling right through it.
MORE CFB: Week 10 Bowl Projections
Virginia Tech (+9.5) over Louisville
The Hokies have quietly been playing well since a loss to Marshall left them at 1-3. Three double-digit ACC wins and a relatively competitive loss to Florida State later, Virginia Tech finds itself a half game out of the No. 2 spot in the ACC standings behind Louisville. The Cardinals have been great, but Pitt showed they can get got, too.
Vanderbilt (+12.5) over Auburn
Admittedly, my alma mater is a mess, but I’m running out of chances to semi-realistically take them in this contest, so this is the week. Vanderbilt has beaten Auburn in Nashville the last two times the teams have met in Music City.
Bill Bender, Lead college football writer
Kansas (+2.5) over Iowa State
Anything can happen in Ames. We understand that, especially in prime-time games. That’s OK. The Jayhawks beat the Cyclones 14-11 last season, and Jason Bean stepped up last week against Oklahoma. We trust Kansas running game that averages 213.6 yards per game, even if it gets wild in the fourth quarter.
USC (+3) over Washington
This line has dropped a half-point, and shootouts can become toss-ups real quick. Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are bound to put on a show, especially considering both teams struggle stopping the run. The Trojans are 0-2 S/U as an underdog under Lincoln Riley, but this upset keeps USC in the Pac-12 race.
Kansas State (+3.5) over Texas
The Wildcats have outscored their last two opponents 82-3, and this line has dropped two points from open. Texas won by a touchdown last year, but can backup quarterback Maalik Murphy have enough success against the Big 12’s top scoring defense? The Wildcats are 3-1 S/U as a road underdog since last season.
Edward Sutelan, Digital content producer
Oklahoma State (+6) over Oklahoma
The Sooners’ undefeated season came to an end last week against Kansas, a week removed from looking shaky against UCF. They’re clearly headed in the wrong direction, while the Cowboys, who inexplicably were blown out by South Alabama in Week 3, look like they’re getting better and better. Oklahoma State now has three straight weeks of at least 200 passing yards from Alan Bowman and at least 160 rushing yards by Ollie Gordon II. In the last Bedlam, the Cowboys kick the Sooners out the door with a statement win.
LSU (+3) over Alabama
Look, if I’m wrong again, I’m going to stop picking the Crimson Tide to lose another game. But it’s felt like for much of the season the Crimson Tide have played with fire a bit, and managed to emerge unscathed outside the Texas game. But Jayden Daniels is by far the best quarterback they’ve faced this season — and might face all year. LSU’s pass rush should get after a vulnerable Alabama offensive line and lead Jalen Milroe to make a mistake or two more than Daniels.
Colorado (+13.5) over Oregon State
Colorado is going to have to pull off an upset at some point this season if it hopes to reach a bowl game. The Buffaloes’ clash against Oregon State feels like a spot where it could happen. The major weakness for Colorado is protecting Shedeur Sanders under center. Oregon State, however, ranks just 74th in the nation in pass-rush grade per PFF. This isn’t betting that Colorado’s defense will hold up against DJ Uiagalelei and this steady Beaver offense. It’s a bet that the Buffaloes find some magic to just score a bit more.
Nick Musial, Content producer
Maryland (+8.5) over Penn State
While Manny Diaz’s stop unit is legit and is the main reason Penn State still has a chance to reach the Big Ten Championship, the offense is a challenging watch. Drew Allar’s inconsistencies as a passer, thanks to a lacking WR corps and uneasy play calling, put Maryland in a prime position to hand PSU its second loss of the season. People might write the ‘Terps off after an uninspiring loss in Evanston last week, but just when you start to doubt Mike Locksley’s bunch, the unthinkable happens.
Virginia Tech (+9.5) over Louisville
Jeff Brohm is bringing the Cardinals back to relevancy, but they shouldn’t be this good in his first season, right? I understand QB Jack Plummer has a good feel for the offense dating back to their time at Purdue, but is this team really the 13th best squad in the country? I might regret doubting Brohm come Saturday afternoon, but the Hokies look like a live dog in this one.
BYU (+12.5) over West Virginia
BYU has struggled to adjust to their increased competition level this season, but seeing close to two touchdowns next to their name is essentially an auto-pick for me. WVU QB Garrett Greene has been slinging it the past few weeks, but WVU is the classic team that overperforms as an underdog and underperforms as a favorite.