We all can appreciate a long shot, right?
Each year, the NBA Draft Lottery sees the futures of 14 teams hinge upon a series of ping pong balls and the ultimate game of odds.
Since 2019, the three teams with the worst record in the previous season each have a 14.0 percent chance of winning the top pick in the draft. From there, odds are staggered to where every team still has an opportunity.
MORE: Most interesting storylines heading into 2022 NBA Draft Lottery
The team with the best record among the 14 lottery teams has a 0.5 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick.
So, yes, I’m telling you there’s a chance.
While lottery results are largely based on odds, luck is certainly a factor as well. Look back at the most recent teams to defy odds to win the top pick in the NBA Draft.
Longest odds to win NBA Draft Lottery since 1990
Since the weighted lottery system was adopted in 1990, eight teams that had a first-pick probability of 6.30 percent or lower have won the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, with the most recent team being the Pelicans in 2019.
In 1993, the Magic won the lottery with a 1.5 percent probability, marking the largest lottery upset in the weighted era.
| Year | Team | Probability (Rank) | Selection |
| 2019 | Pelicans | 6.00% (T-7th) | Zion Williamson |
| 2014 | Cavaliers | 1.40% (9th) | Andrew Wiggins |
| 2011 | Clippers (conveyed to Cavaliers) | 2.80% (8th) | Kyrie Irving |
| 2008 | Bulls | 1.70% (9th) | Derrick Rose |
| 2007 | Trail Blazers | 5.30% (6th) | Greg Oden |
| 2005 | Bucks | 6.30% (6th) | Andrew Bogut |
| 2000 | Nets | 4.40% (7th) | Kenyon Martin |
| 1993 | Magic | 1.52% (11th) | Chris Webber |
2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Here are the odds for the 2022 NBA Draft lottery.
The Top 4 column represents a team’s chances of earning one of the top four picks in the NBA Draft, while the No. 1 Pick column represents a team’s chances of winning the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.
| Team | Record | Top 4 | No. 1 Pick |
| Rockets | 20-62 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| Magic | 22-60 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| Pistons | 23-59 | 52.1% | 14.0% |
| Thunder | 24-58 | 48.1% | 12.5% |
| Pacers | 25-57 | 42.1% | 10.5% |
| Trail Blazers | 27-55 | 37.2% | 9.0% |
| Kings | 30-52 | 32.0% | 7.5% |
| 33-49 | 26.3% | 6.0% | |
| Spurs | 34-48 | 20.3% | 4.5% |
| Wizards | 35-47 | 11.7% | 3.0% |
| Knicks | 36-46 | 11.7% | 2.0% |
| 42-40 | 7.1% | 1.5% | |
| Hornets | 43-39 | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| Cavaliers | 44-38 | 2.4% | 0.5% |
The Pelicans acquired the Lakers’ pick in the 2019 trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles.
The Thunder acquired the Clippers’ pick in the 2019 trade that sent Paul George to Los Angeles.
History of No. 1 overall picks in NBA Draft
Here is every team in the lottery era (since 1985) to win the No. 1 overall pick along with their pre-lottery odds. From 1985-89, every team in the lottery had the same odds to win the No. 1 overall pick. The NBA began using weighted odds by record starting in 1990.
| Year | Team | No. 1 Pick Probability | Pre-Lottery Position | Selection |
| 2021 | Pistons | 14.0% | T-1st | Cade Cunningham |
| 2020 | Timberwolves | 14.0% | T-1st | Anthony Edwards |
| 2019 | Pelicans | 6.0% | 7th | Zion Williamson |
| 2018 | Suns | 25.0% | 1st | Deandre Ayton |
| 2017 | 76ers (via Celtics) | 25.0% | 1st | Markelle Fultz |
| 2016 | 76ers | 25.0% | 1st | Ben Simmons |
| 2015 | Timberwolves | 25.0% | 1st | Karl-Anthony Towns |
| 2014 | Cavaliers | 1.7% | 9th | Andrew Wiggins |
| 2013 | Cavaliers | 15.6% | 3rd | Anthony Bennett |
| 2012 | Hornets | 13.7% | 4th | Anthony Davis |
| 2011 | Cavaliers (via Clippers) | 2.8% | 8th | Kyrie Irving |
| 2010 | Wizards | 10.3% | 5th | John Wall |
| 2009 | Clippers | 17.7% | 3rd | Blake Griffin |
| 2008 | Bulls | 1.7% | 9th | Derrick Rose |
| 2007 | Trail Blazers | 5.3% | 7th | Greg Oden |
| 2006 | Raptors | 8.8% | 5th | Andrea Bargnani |
| 2005 | Bucks | 6.3% | 6th | Andrew Bogut |
| 2004 | Magic | 25% | 1st | Dwight Howard |
| 2003 | Cavaliers | 22.5% | T-1st | LeBron James |
| 2002 | Rockets | 8.9% | 5th | Yao Ming |
| 2001 | Wizards | 15.7% | 3rd | Kwame Brown |
| 2000 | Nets | 4.4% | 7th | Kenyon Martin |
| 1999 | Bulls | 15.7% | 3rd | Elton Brand |
| 1998 | Clippers | 22.5% | 2nd | Michael Olowakandi |
| 1997 | Spurs | 21.6% | 2nd | Tim Duncan |
| 1996 | 76ers | 33.7% | 1st | Allen Iverson |
| 1995 | Warriors | 9.4% | 5th | Joe Smith |
| 1994 | Bucks | 16.3% | 4th | Glenn Robinson |
| 1993 | Magic | 1.5% | 11th | Chris Webber |
| 1992 | Magic | 15.2% | 2nd | Shaquille O’Neal |
| 1991 | Hornets | 10.6% | 5th | Larry Johnson |
| 1990 | Nets | 16.7% | 1st | Derrick Coleman |
| 1989 | Kings | 11.1% | T-1st | Pervis Ellison |
| 1988 | Clippers | 14.3% | T-1st | Danny Manning |
| 1987 | Spurs | 14.3% | T-1st | David Robinson |
| 1986 | Cavaliers (via 76ers) | 14.3% | T-1st | Brad Daugherty |
| 1985 | Knicks | 14.3% | T-1st | Patrick Ewing |