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In the final game on wild-card weekend, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will go on the road to play Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Monday night (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN). Dallas had their two-game winning streak snapped in an ugly 20-point road defeat to the Commanders last week. The Buccaneers also ended the regular season with a road loss (30-17 to Atlanta), but unlike the Cowboys, they rested their starters for a good portion of the game.
The fifth-seeded Cowboys are looking to get revenge on the fourth-seeded Buccaneers, who defeated them 19-3 in Week 1 at Jerry World. Dallas will try to get out of the wild-card round this postseason after losing to the 49ers last year in disappointing fashion. As for the Bucs, they will look to advance to the divisional round for the third-straight year with Brady.
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Below, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Cowboys-Buccaneers, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction, tips, and our prediction for this highly anticipated wild-card game.
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Cowboys -150; Buccaneers +125
Heading into Monday night’s playoff game, the Cowboys are surprisingly a short road favorite over the Bucs. Dallas is 7-5 against the spread as a favorite this season but 4-4 ATS on the road. Conversely, Tampa Bay has been the worst team against the spread this season (4-12-1).
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers all-time series
The Cowboys lead the all-time series against the Buccaneers with a record of 15-6, but Tampa Bay has won the past two matchups. The last time these two teams played each other in the playoffs was during the 1982 season when the Cowboys defeated the Bucs 30-17 at old Texas Stadium.
Three trends to know
— The Cowboys are 18-7 ATS against conference opponents over the past two years, according to BetQL.
— Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is 16-5 ATS as a home underdog vs. the first-half line over his career, per BetQL.
— The Cowboys are also 2-3 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Take advantage of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our best bets across all sports, including college football, NFL, and MLB!
Three things to watch for
Dak Prescott’s turnover issues
The Cowboys could be one-and-done in the playoffs if Prescott does not get his turnover issues fixed as soon as possible. Last week against the Commanders, the veteran quarterback threw his 15th interception, which was returned for a touchdown by Washington cornerback Kendall Fuller. Since Week 12, Prescott has thrown an interception in seven-straight games.
This season, Tampa Bay had just 20 takeaways, which was good for 20th in the NFL. If Tampa Bay wants to win on Sunday, their defensive line will have to get pressure on Prescott and force him into a mistake.
Cowboys’ running game vs. Buccaneers’ run defense
After starting the second half of the regular season strong, the Cowboys’ running game has fizzled out over the past two games. Last week against the Commanders, Dallas only had 64 rushing yards. The previous week against the Titans, the Cowboys mustered 87 rushing yards and a touchdown.
If their running game isn’t working, the rest of the offense struggles, which means more pressure on Prescott to make plays with his arm. Now the Cowboys will have to face a Buccaneers’ defense that gave up 120.7 rushing yards per game during the season (15th in the NFL). The Cowboys should be able to make some plays on the ground against this Tampa Bay defense on Monday night. However, the Bucs defended the run better at home this season, only giving up 112.4 rushing yards per game (10th fewest). We’ll see if Dallas will stick to the run game or abandon it early if they don’t see immediate results.
Mike Evans and the Bucs’ passing game
The star wide receiver had one of his best games this season a couple of weeks ago against the Panthers when he recorded 10 receptions (12 targets) for 207 yards and three touchdowns. It was a vintage outing from Evans, who was held without a touchdown in the previous 11 games. He will now get prepared to face a Dallas’ secondary, which has been really struggling toward the end of the season. Dallas wound up allowing the ninth-most receiving yards and most touchdowns (22) to wide receivers in the regular season. Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich must get Evans and Chris Godwin the ball early and often on Monday night. Godwin has been phenomenal this season since returning from a torn ACL and has stepped up as the Bucs’ No. 1 wide receiver. However, Evans can still put up monster stats and has a good opportunity against Dallas.
Stat that matters
54. This is the number of sacks the Cowboys’ defense has recorded this season (third most in the NFL). If the Cowboys want to win on Monday night, they will need to get pressure on Brady, who only has been sacked 22 times this season. When these two teams played in Week 1, the Cowboys got to Brady twice and limited his passing numbers (212 yards, TD, INT), but Dallas couldn’t muster enough offense to take advantage of Brady’s struggles. We should expect Dallas’ defense to bounce back after their lackluster performance last week against Washington.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prediction
It’s hard to know what to expect in this game with Dak Prescott struggling and the Buccaneers seemingly underachieving all season. However, we like Tampa Bay to get the win in prime time. It will likely come down to the fourth quarter, which is Tom Brady time. Brady is battle-tested and knows what it takes to will his team to a win. Prescott hasn’t played great lately, and it is hard to see him flipping a switch on the road. Take Tampa Bay and the points.
PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Cowboys 20. The Buccaneers will cover (+2.5), and the total will go UNDER (45.5).