The Sporting News soccer betting expert Kyle Bonn has been sharing his tips and analysis throughout the 2022 FIFA World Cup and with only eight matches left to play he’ll be joining fans live in-game.
It starts with the Brazil vs Croatia quarterfinal where the South American side is heavily favored to win the match and advance to the semifinals as the tournament favorites. But Croatia were finalists in the last World Cup and their veteran side believes they’re being underestimated.
There are plenty of varying trends and data points during the course of a match and Kyle, who has covered the game for a decade and watched every 2022 World Cup match, will be processing it and providing ideas for bettors.
The updated boxscore for the Croatia vs Brazil match is followed by in-game tips from Kyle Bonn, along with his observations and analysis as the match progresses.
MORE: For a full breakdown of Brazil vs. Croatia, check out the full betting preview here
Croatia vs Brazil live score
| 1st Half | 2nd Half | Final | |
| Croatia | — | — | — |
| Brazil | — | — | — |
Goals:
None
Starting lineups:
Croatia (4-3-3, right to left): 1. Livakovic (GK) — 22. Juranovic, 6. Lovren, 20. Gvardiol, 19. Sosa — 10. Modric, 11. Brozovic, 8. Kovacic — 15. Pasalic, 9. Kramaric, 4. Perisic.
Brazil (4-2-3-1, right to left): 1. Alisson (GK) — 14. Militao, 4. Marquinhos, 3. Silva, 2. Danilo — 5. Casemiro, 7. Paqueta — 11. Raphinha, 10. Neymar, 20. Vinicius Jr — 9. Richarlison
Croatia vs Brazil live betting tips, picks
Updated in-game betting tips below based on the current score and minute of the match.
| LIVE PICKS | Min | Odds | ✔️ or ❌ | Units +/- |
| TBD | — | — | — | — |
Croatia vs Brazil updates, betting analysis
30 mins to kickoff: Interestingly, there’s a significant amount of volume on Croatia, more than one would expect at least, but all the money is on Brazil ahead of this match. If Croatia pull off a stunning upset, it won’t be one that anyone saw coming. To this point, every indication is that Brazil are by far the better team, and Croatia have not justified any backing with their performances so far.
Brazil-Croatia to Advance betting at @BetMGM
Brazil open -650, no movement
▪️ 48% of bets, 84% of money on 🇧🇷Croatia open +400, no movement
▪️ 52% of bets, 16% of money on 🇭🇷— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 9, 2022
45 mins to kickoff: I am all aboard the Raphinha train for this match. The Barcelona winger has been one of the best players at this tournament, but somehow has not scored or assisted a goal, and therefore doesn’t get the attention of his teammates. As a result, the value on his bets are inflated, which we can benefit from.
Raphinha has the most shots and most shots on target of any player on the Brazil roster, and he has the most expected goals of any player remaining in the competition without profiting (second to Jamal Musiala and Romelu Lukaku, both of whom are out of the tournament). With Raphinha at +300 to score or +200 to assist, it’s a good shout.
No player has had more shots (8) or created more chances (8) at the 2022 World Cup for Brazil than Raphinha… but he’s yet to score or assist a goal at the tournament so far. #BRA | #FIFAWorldCup | #Qatar2022 pic.twitter.com/P50xkDj2IX
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) December 9, 2022
1 hr to kickoff: Lineups are out, and there’s no major surprises. Brazil name an unchanged side, while Croatia make two changes. The only interesting wrinkle for Croatia is Mario Pasalic comes into the attack in place of Marko Livaja, which is interesting since Livaja has been solid most of this tournament in his limited time, while Pasalic has only seen action off the bench thus far.
Remember, when placing player-specific bets, always wait for starting lineups to come out before confirming your selections, just incase!
1 hr 10 mins from kickoff: Now that we’ve talked match official, how about fouls? Neymar is consistently the most fouled player in the world, which holds true this World Cup. Neymar has won the most fouls per 90 minutes of anyone with at least 100 minutes. Jack Grealish has been a menace for England, but he’s only played 80 total minutes.
Fouls won per 90, World Cup 2022:
Jack Grealish, England – 11.54
Neymar, Brazil – 5.43
Gavi, Spain – 4.45
Eduardo Camavinga, France – 4.28— PFF FC (@PFF_FC) December 9, 2022
1 hr 23 mins from kickoff: Let’s have a closer look at today’s match official, Michael Oliver. Premier League fans will be very familiar with Oliver, who is one of just three officials alongside Paul Tierney and Anthony Taylor to officiate 12 league games before the World Cup break.
Amongst those matches, Oliver has shown 39 yellow cards and one red card, whistling for 19.58 fouls per game. His mark of 3.25 yellows per game puts him 15th, while his 0.60 fouls per tackle mark also ranks him 15th. Overall, he’s one of the more lenient officials in the Premier League, and referees this World Cup have been extremely hesitant to show yellow cards, even the most aggressive officials from other continents.
Over at FanDuel, the over/under on this match for total cards reflects this heavily. Under 3.5 total cards in the match is -158, which provides little value. However, you can get Croatia under 1.5 cards at +174, which might seem a tight window, but Croatia have been shown just four yellow cards thus far, and saw no cards in two of their four games, including the match against Belgium where they were pummeled all match.
— FIFA Media (@fifamedia) December 7, 2022
1 hr 35 mins from kickoff: Shockingly, Croatia have conceded the first goal in six of their last eight World Cup matches, with the only two they didn’t concede first in being their two goalless draws this tournament. They’ve managed to avoid defeat in all but one of those games — the World Cup final in 2018.
That makes a pick of the first half to have more goals at +240 enticing, as Croatia could be primed for an early Brazil goal, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to manage a comeback in this one. You can also get Argentina only to score in both halves at +140, which feels positive.
1 hr 45 mins from kickoff: There hasn’t been a ton of pre-match line movement on this game, but the little bit there has been is in favor of Brazil. On BetMGM, Brazil opened as a -250 favorite, and that’s shifted to -275.
Where we’ve seen the most movement is on the goals front. The over 2.5 total has gone from -140 to -150, indicating that the betting market sees Brazil tallying a few times in this game.
2 hrs from kickoff: Brazil are still the 2022 World Cup betting favorites, as they have been from the start, and it’s not close. They started the tournament at +550, and have dropped all the way to +170 to win the World Cup, according to BetMGM. Second-favorites France are all the way back at +400, with England at +600.
Croatia vs Brazil best bets (pre-match)
| BetMGM | Sports Interaction |
✔️ or ❌ | Units +/- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil -1.5 handicap/spread | +100 | 2.07 | — | — |
| Brazil to win & Under 3.5 total goals |
+100 | 1.87 | — | — |
| Neymar anytime scorer & Raphinha anytime assist |
+405 | — | — | — |
Brazil vs. Croatia score prediction
- Prediction: Brazil 2-0 Croatia
Croatia have shown nothing in this World Cup to indicate they can compete with Brazil at this stage of the tournament. Flat out, end of story.
Three draws to just one victory have proven Croatia are adept at scraping by against inferior opponents, but aside from the spectacular tournament by goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and center-back Josko Gvardiol, this squad has not exactly impressed.
Their pair of scoreless group-stage draws (vs. Morocco and Belgium) proved they don’t have enough in the attack to compete, and unless they manage to keep Brazil off the scoresheet, they will have little up front to match the goals they are sure to concede.
Brazil vs. Croatia pre-match best bet
- Pick: Brazil -1.5 handicap
- Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
Brazil clobbered South Korea in the Round of 16 as Neymar returned to join white-hot attackers Richarlison and Raphinha. The attacking trio is in sensational form, feeding each other for chances and finishing them off with ruthless intent.
Croatia are excellent defensively, but against this tireless Brazil attack, will eventually cave. This should be a multi-goal victory for the Selecao, and anything less will be cause for concern moving forward into the semifinals against more talented teams.
Croatia vs Brazil odds (pre-match)
Below are the odds for the match released on Monday, December 5, four days before kickoff.
| BetMGM | Sports Interaction |
|
|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | +700 | 7.80 |
| Draw | +360 | 4.60 |
| Brazil win | -250 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score (Yes / No) |
+105 / -150 | 2.04 / 1.61 |
| Over / Under 2.5 total goals |
-130 / -105 | 1.78 / 1.93 |
| Brazil -1.5 | +105 | 2.05 |
| Croatia +1.5 | -155 | 1.72 |
| Brazil to advance | -650 | 1.16 |
| Croatia to advance | +360 | 4.70 |
Note: Odds above for 90 minutes of regulation except “to advance.”
How to watch Croatia vs Brazil
This quarterfinal match between Croatia and Brazil will be played at the Education City Stadium.
Here’s how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.
| Date | Time | TV Channel | Streaming | |
| USA | Fri, Dec. 9 | 10:00 ET | Fox, Telemundo |
fuboTV, Fox Sports site/app, Telemundo Deportes site/app, Peacock |
| Canada | Fri, Dec. 9 | 10:00 ET | TSN 1, RDS (French) | TSN site/app, RDS app |
| UK | Fri, Dec. 9 | 15:00 GMT | BBC One | BBC iPlayer, BBC website |
| Australia | Sat, Dec. 10 | 02:00 AEDT | SBS | SBS On Demand |
| India | Fri, Dec. 9 | 20:30 IST | Sports18 | Voot, JioTV |
| Hong Kong | Fri, Dec. 9 | 23:00 HKT | Now TV (Ch. 616, 618) | Now TV |
| Malaysia | Fri, Dec. 9 | 23:00 MYT | Astro FIFA World Cup 1 | Astro GO |
| Singapore | Fri, Dec. 9 | 23:00 SGT | StarHub FIFA World Cup, Singtel FIFA World Cup 141 |
Singtel TV GO, CAST, StarHub TV+, MeWatch |
| New Zealand | Sat, Dec. 10 | 04:00 NZDT | Sky Sport 7 beIN Sports | Sky Go, Sky Sport NOW |