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Likely down its top two quarterbacks, the 8-8 Dolphins aim to keep their playoff hopes alive when they host the 7-9 Jets in Week 18 (1 p.m. ET, FOX). Miami looked like a sure-fire wild-card team a month ago, but a five-game losing streak coupled with another Tua Tagovailoa concussion has complicated that notion.
Miami suffered a crucial 23-21 Week 17 loss to New England that gave the Patriots the upper hand in tiebreaker scenarios. In the loss, the Dolphins led 14-7 in the third quarter but allowed the Patriots to score 16 unanswered points en route to a 23-21 victory. To add insult to injury, QB Teddy Bridgewater (finger) exited in the third quarter, thrusting rookie Skylar Thompson into game action. Bridgewater’s trending toward missing Sunday’s matchup, setting Thompson up to likely make his second career start.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ 23-6 loss to Seattle in Week 17 ended their hopes of snapping an 11-year playoff drought. New York can still play spoiler with a road win to gain confidence going into the offseason, but a late-season collapse that’s also resulted in a five-game losing skid derailed much of what was a steady improvement in Robert Saleh’s second season. New York’s instability at quarterback has cost it a shot at a wild card, as its defense was one of the best in the league, entering Week 18 ranking seventh in EPA/play (-0.042).
WEEK 18 NFL BETTING: Odds, spreads
For those looking for a play, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Dolphins-Jets, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction, tips, and our prediction for this Week 18 AFC East matchup.
Dolphins vs. Jets odds for NFL Week 18
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Jets PK (-111); Dolphins PK (-109)
- Over/Under: 38.5
In the preseason look-ahead lines, the Dolphins sat as 5.5-point home favorites and would have likely been favored in that ballpark with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center. Back in Week 5, Miami actually closed as 3.5-point road favorites when Bridgewater started in place of the then-injured Tagovailoa. Bridgewater was knocked out of the game after the first series, paving the way for Thompson to see his first-ever NFL action. Miami competed but ultimately ran out of steam in the latter part of the second half, losing 40-17. Miami sat as high as -3 this week but has since been bet down to a pick ’em with Thompson likely getting the starting nod. The total has dropped from 42 down to 38.5 with less offense expected in a game with two shaky quarterbacks.
Dolphins vs. Jets all-time series
The Dolphins lead the all-time series over the Jets 57-56-1. Despite dropping their Week 5 matchup 40-17, Miami’s won eight of the past 10 meetings. The Jets look to notch their first regular season sweep over the Dolphins since 2015 when Ryan Fitzpatrick started at QB for New York.
Three trends to know
— Along with losing five straight, the Jets are just 1-4 ATS over that span. Their lone cover came in their Week 14 loss to Buffalo (+9.5.)
— Miami’s been profitable against its divisional foes, posting a 5-1 ATS record against AFC East opponents.
— According to BetQL, “the Jets have three wins this season as road underdogs, although all three wins came during the early part of the season.”
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Three things to watch for
Skylar Thompson’s effectiveness
With Thompson likely making his second career start with the Dolphins season on the line, he needs to prove he can beat defenses with his arm. Thompson couldn’t get much going last week following Bridgewater’s injury last week, completing 12-of-21 passes for 104 yards, a TD, and an INT. Even those numbers were a bit inflated, as Thompson led the Dolphins to a garbage-time TD drive against soft coverage. The Jets’ pass defense has allowed the sixth-lowest drop-back EPA (-0.015), and although he has elite weapons out wide, it could be a struggle to move the ball through the air.
New York’s running game
In New York’s Week 5 win against Miami, Breece Hall had a big day on the ground (97 rushing yards, one TD), making life easier for Zach Wilson and the offense. Hall’s absence has been a massive loss for the Jets, as they’ve lacked explosiveness out of the backfield. New York’s also failed to rush for more than 80 yards in four straight games, as rookie fill-in Zonovan Knight hasn’t been as effective as he was when he first started receiving a bigger workload. Last week, the Jets gave Ty Johnson a larger role, and he ran for 46 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. The Jets had to abandon the run trailing by multiple scores, but assuming they’re able to keep things close, expect Johnson to post a respectable rushing stat line despite a tough matchup against a solid Dolphins run defense.
Will the Jets’ offense end the season on a positive note?
Tagovailoa’s and Bridgewater’s injuries are the only reason the Jets sit as slight favorites, and without a downgrade at quarterback, they’d be projected to lose their sixth straight game to end the season. The Jets’ offense is averaging only 9.5 points per game over the past four weeks, and even with Mike White returning from a rib injury, they could only muster six points against a below-average Seahawks defense. Miami’s defense is toward the bottom of the league in EPA/play, so the Jets should be able to generate enough offense to end the season on a positive note.
Stat that matters
-10.0% That’s the Jets’ defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, which is the sixth best in the league. The Jets’ defense ranks in the top 10 in both pass DVOA (sixth) and rush DVOA (ninth), as it’s held up its end of the bargain throughout the whole season. One more solid performance can lead to a top-five defensive DVOA finish — one that will end the Dolphins’ playoff hopes.
Dolphins vs. Jets prediction
This game has a good deal of variance to it, as we’re still unsure of exactly who will start under center for Miami. If Thompson ends up making the start, we think the Jets’ pass rush disrupts him enough, resulting in a turnover or two that gives the Jets solid starting field position. The Jets will snap their five-game losing skid, ending the Dolphins’ playoff hopes in the process.
PREDICTION: Jets 20, Dolphins 17. New York (PK) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (38.5).