NFL survivor pools almost saw the biggest single elimination of what’s already been a carnage-filled year, but Green Bay eked past the Patriots in overtime last week. That win helped stave off yet another week of big eliminations as we head toward the middle of the season. Fortunately, the football pool experts at PoolGenius are once again here to help you find the best Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks.
Week 5 gives us the biggest favorite of the year so far with Pittsburgh sitting as 14-point underdogs to the Bills. Using Buffalo comes with a cost in survivor pools, though, as it will be favored by large spreads in several weeks going forward. In this post, we’ll break down the Bills and four other popular Week 5 picks since you’re probably considering picking at least one of those teams.
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Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
The analysis below is high level and doesn’t take into account the specific rules/size of your pool or the teams you’ve already picked. To get our pick advice for your specific pool, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers can shift over the week, so make sure to check our product for the latest data.
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Survivor Pick Popularity: 36% (most popular pick)
Point Spread: -14
As a 14-point favorite, the Bills’ win odds are at least 10 percent higher than any other option this week, representing a pretty significant safety edge. Except Tampa Bay, every other option this week is at least twice as likely to lose based on our model odds.
Of course, the trade-off with Buffalo is future value. We currently project the Bills as the biggest favorite in five future weeks, starting in Week 9. If at least a third of pool entries are using them this week, that means they could be less popular and higher-value plays in some of those upcoming weeks.
The trade-off of using the Bills now versus saving them may depend on how large your pool is and how deep into the season you need to go (and if you have multiple pick weeks later in the year).
WEEK 5 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Survivor Pick Popularity: 19%
Point Spread: -9.0
The Bucs have reasonably high popularity (19 percent) for the second-most popular team. Given Buffalo’s relative win odds and reduced chances of losing, Tampa Bay only has a good-but-not-great “Expected Value” (EV) this week.
The Bucs also have decent future value, although this does look like one of the best spots to use them from a safety perspective.
WEEK 5 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Survivor Pick Popularity: 15%
Point Spread: -7.0
Jacksonville has relatively low future value and is favored by a touchdown this week against Houston. Those factors have continued to push the Jaguars up in popularity. That popularity reduces their EV, as they are more popular than several other teams with similar (or better) win odds.
That makes the Jags a relatively lower-value play now. However, they could help you save lots of future value if they get through in a week where the best team to save, Buffalo, will be heavily used.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Week 5 Pick ’em pool advice
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Survivor Pick Popularity: 10%
Point Spread: -7.0
Like Jacksonville, the Vikings are favored by a touchdown this week when they face the Bears at home. They do so a week after playing in London against the Saints.
So far, there have been only five cases where a team played the week after a London game, and those teams are 2-2-1 against the spread. There isn’t a noticeable trend in that admittedly small sample size.
The Vikings are currently below Jacksonville in popularity, so they have a little better EV than the Jaguars. They do have a little more future value, but that is marginal. The drop-off from the top eight teams in future value to everyone else is fairly large right now, and the Vikings are not among those highest-value options going forward.
FREE TRIAL: Week 5 survivor pool picks
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Survivor Pick Popularity: 5%
Point Spread: -8.0
The Packers do have lower popularity and slightly higher win odds than some other options this week, as they are favored by eight points against the Giants in the London game. This is one to keep an eye on because we currently don’t know the final status of Giants QB Daniel Jones after he suffered an ankle injury last week. The odds could shift if he is ruled out.
Short of that shift, the Packers’ EV is solid but not spectacular, particularly because they project as a bigger favorite next week at home against the Jets. No other team next week is likely to be favored by as much as the Bills are now, either.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Get our Week 5 survivor pick for your pool!
In the long run, winning more survivor pools depends on making picks that optimally balance risk and reward. Every possible NFL Week 5 survivor pick has both an expected value in the current week (based on its win odds and pick popularity) and a future value associated with saving that team to use later. Understanding those value metrics is the key to winning more survivor pools in the long term, and they can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool (e.g. its size and rules).
It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) will give you the biggest edge to win your 2022 survivor pool. That’s why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
It asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries.
There’s nothing else like it, and our subscribers have reported over $3.7 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017. We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
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We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!