Fantasy Football Experts Mock Draft: Advice, strategy, tips for 12-team standard leagues

We’re really starting to get into crunch-time for fantasy football draft season. Week 1 is just weeks away, and savvy owners are crafting cheat sheets, settling on their favorite sleepers, and doing the No. 1 thing that can help them prepare for draft day: mock drafts. The beauty of mock drafts is that they help you define your draft strategy. Testing different theories and screwing up not only doesn’t matter, it’s encouraged.

As you’ll see, I made plenty of questionable decisions in this mock draft.

Recently, I participated in a 15-round mock set up by Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball.com. The 12-team standard draft gave me an opportunity to test our top-200 PPR rankings and figure out how standard drafters are differing from PPR drafters this year.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2021 Cheat Sheet

In this mock, I chose to pick from the No. 12 spot. Why? Because I had selected No. 1 overall in a recent PPR mock and wanted to see how much — if at all — my draft strategy changed on the opposite side of the draft board.

My strategy was simple. I wanted to build a balanced team, if possible. Whether that meant starting with two RBs and then grabbing two WRs or splitting picks between WRs and RBs in the first handful of rounds, I wanted a team that had solid depth at both positions. I also wanted to wait on a quarterback to see if I could get a value after snagging Patrick Mahomes early last time.

Overall, I accomplished two of those goals. I built a solid QB room despite waiting and have excellent receiver depth. But the RB room? Well, that’s a different story, as you’ll see below.

Side note: One of my favorite tools for mock drafting is the Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator, which allows you to complete a mock in minutes. To get more info on it, click here.

2021 Experts Fantasy Mock Draft: 12-Team standard league

* This draft was for a standard league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 D/ST, 1 K, and has 6 bench spots

Round 1, Pick 12: WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs. Drafting on the turn, my goal was to either get two strong running backs or the top RB and WR on the board. Mission accomplished. Running backs flew off the board early, and that pushed Hill down to the 12th overall pick. Hill ranks No. 1 overall in our standard fantasy WR rankings and our top-ranked non-RB in our top 200 standard rankings. Hill had a career-high 17 TDs last year and has led the NFL in yards per touch twice in the past three years. He’s a big-play threat every time he touches the ball and an excellent value with the 12th pick.

2.13: RB Antonio Gibson, Washington. With Hill in tow, I turned my attention to the RB position. Nine RBs came off the board with the first 11 picks, so Gibson was left as our best option. Fortunately, he’s a rock-solid RB1. Last season, Gibson totaled 1,042 scrimmage yards and ran for a whopping 11 TDs in just 14 games (10 starts). The most impressive part of his performance was that he primarily played receiver in college and didn’t have a normal offseason to learn the position. Gibson should be much better with extra time to train at running back, and his receiving skills will make him a three-down threat. Grabbing him and Hill is a great start to this team.

2021 FANTASY TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

3.36: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions. Running backs really flew off the board in this mock. By the 36th pick, 20 backs were already gone. They’re just that valuable in standard formats. As such, I knew I needed to grab another back here even though two of our top-20 players overall were on the board (more on that later). Swift ended up being the pick. He’s a bit of a risk since he’s nursing a groin injury, but if he can get healthy, he should be a great RB2. He averaged 4.6 yards/carry as a rookie and logged 46 catches and 10 total TDs on 160 touches. He started just four games, so with a bigger workload, his numbers should only improve.

4.37: WR Allen Robinson, Bears. I mentioned that two of our top-20 players were still on the board at the turn here. They were Robinson and George Kittle. I could’ve taken both, but I was worried about how that might impact my running back corps down the line. I settled on Robinson to serve as my WR2. He has posted back-to-back seasons with at least 1,147 receiving yards and six receiving TDs. During that span, he has been targeted a whopping 305 times. He should be even better once Justin Fields sees the field, so I like the upside here.

5.60: WR Cooper Kupp, Rams. The value at WR at this point in the draft was insane. In our standard top 200 cheat sheet, Kupp checks in at No. 40 overall. Sure, he’s better in PPR, but he has still been a highly productive receiver. He averaged 129 targets the past two seasons with Jared Goff. Even if he sees fewer with Matthew Stafford, he may be more efficient. Kupp has 1,058 yards and seven TDs per 16 games played during his career. He’s a fantastic WR3, and our starting RB/WR group looks terrific.

6.61: WR D.J. Moore, Panthers. Did I need a fourth receiver here? Not really. However, Moore was the best player left on the board, and I figured I could get a comparable running back to what was available with my next selection. Moore has never been a TD threat — he has just 10 in his three NFL seasons — but he has posted back-to-back campaigns with at least 1,175 receiving yards. Last year, he did so while averaging 18.1 yards per catch. He’s a bit of a risk because of his subpar TD production and new pairing with Sam Darnold, but as a fourth receiver, he’s an extraordinary value.

7.84: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Browns. And here’s where things start to go a bit haywire. I miscalculated on my gambit that a solid, mid-tier running back would be available in the seventh round. I was targeting Devin Singletary specifically, but he came off the board two picks before this one. That gave me a choice. I could either take a guy like Melvin Gordon, Gus Edwards, or AJ Dillon or continue to build my elite receiving corps.

Since this was a mock draft, I gave the latter option a try. Beckham checks in at No. 21 in our fantasy WR rankings, so that gives us five of our top 21 receivers. My WR room is totally stacked, and I didn’t have to spend another pick on one as a result (unless I got a crazy value). Beckham has logged at least 1,000 receiving yards in each season that he has played double-digit games, so he’s a safe pickup as a high-upside backup.

8.85: TE Noah Fant, Broncos. Full disclosure: I probably should’ve gone with an RB here instead of Fant. You’ll see why soon enough. Still, I needed a tight end, and Fant was one of the better players left on the board at his position. He was targeted 93 times in 2021 and figures to have better quarterback play in 2021, as Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock have both looked very good in the preseason. Fant has averaged 617.5 yards and three TDs per season to begin his career, but his third season should be his best one yet.

MORE 2021 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Superflex Top 200 | Superflex Top 200 PPR | IDP | Rookies | O-lines

9.108: RB David Johnson, Texans. And now you see the problem with my team. As great as my receiving corps is, my running back unit is weak. If Swift can’t get healthy to start the season, that means Johnson will be my RB2. Johnson wasn’t bad in his first season with the Texans, averaging a career-high 4.7 yards/carry. That said, he has to compete with Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram for touches now, and he’s played a full, 16-game season just once in the past four years. If Johnson emerges as Houston’s starter, he’ll be a fine fill-in for Swift. If not, my running back room could become a problem — and quickly.

10.109: RB James Conner, Cardinals. We actually have Conner ranked one spot ahead of Johnson in our standard RB rankings, but both are similar players. Conner has a bit less competition for touches than Johnson, but it seems that he is cemented as the backup to Chase Edmonds. Perhaps that will change if the 5-9, 209-pound Edmonds struggles to shoulder the load. Conner had six scores and averaged 4.3 yards/carry last year behind a banged-up Pittsburgh offensive Line, so if he can get enough carries, he should be a decent flex option. Then again, if Kyler Murray vultures scores from him and Edmonds, he could be nothing more than a handcuff to a back I don’t have.

2021 FANTASY TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

11.132: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles. So, because I waited too long on running backs, I also ended up waiting a long time to take a quarterback. That didn’t matter much, though, as Hurts was still available. Hurts isn’t the best passer and completed just 52 percent of his passes as a rookie, but he averaged 68 rushing yards per game during his four starts to close the season. He had three scores on the ground, too, so his scrambling ability gives him a high floor. Getting him in the 11th round is a good value, though we’ll grab a high-quality backup just in case Hurts struggles and is benched for Joe Flacco (however unlikely that may be).

12.133: RB James White, Patriots. White was one of the safer options for my team as I looked to salvage my running back room. Fellow Patriots sleeper Rhamondre Stevenson has more upside, but he was already off the board. White is a good receiving back and has averaged 87.6 targets per season over the past five years. That carries more value in PPR, but at least he has a role to play and will see the field.

13.156: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons. Hurts is my quarterback with upside. If he flops, Ryan will be my “safe” backup to take over for him. Ryan’s not a sexy pick since he doesn’t really scramble, but he has one of the highest passing floors in fantasy. He has attempted at least 600 passes in three consecutive seasons and has led the league in completions back-to-back years. Ryan has also posted at least 4,095 passing yards in each of the past 10 seasons while averaging 28.1 TDs. While having two QBs isn’t always the optimal strategy, Ryan was one of the best players on the board here. With Hurts being a bit of a question mark, taking Ryan is a good hedge.

MORE 2021 FANTASY HELP:
Mock Draft Simulator | Position battles | Bye weeks | Best team names

14.157: D/ST Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are our No. 1 ranked defense. They play the Raiders in Week 1, so that’s not a bad start to the season. The Chiefs will be tough in Week 2, but I can always pick up a streamer if I’m worried about how they’ll fare.

15.180. K Brandon McManus, Broncos. McManus is one of our top-10 kickers and plays at high altitude in Denver. It doesn’t hurt his outlook that the Broncos have also been averaging 31.5 points per game during the preseason.

2021 FANTASY CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

By the end of the draft, this is what my team looked like:

Starters

QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles
RB Antonio Gibson, Washington
RB D’Andre Swift, Lions
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
WR Allen Robinson, Bears
FLEX Cooper Kupp, Rams
TE Noah Fant, Broncos
D/ST Ravens
K Brandon McManus, Broncos

Bench

QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
RB David Johnson, Texans
RB James Conner, Cardinals
RB James White, Patriots
WR D.J. Moore, Panthers
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Browns

FANTASY DRAFT STRATEGY:
Snake Draft | Auction | Best Ball | Dynasty/Keeper | IDP

This team is a very risky one. On the one hand, my receiving corps is stacked and should carry my team. I can play matchups weekly which will take some stress out of my start ’em, sit ’em decisions.

That said, my running back corps is paper thin. If Swift wasn’t dealing with an injury, this would be fine. But he is, and if he can’t get healthy, my alternatives are far from appealing. In retrospect, I probably should’ve spent an eighth-round pick on someone like Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Gus Edwards, or A.J. Dillon instead of going with Fant. That’s what these mocks are for, though. You have to learn from them.

So, what’s the lesson here? Don’t get caught up in receiver value (or selecting a tight end) if you don’t have a solid RB3. As appealing as taking both Moore and Beckham is, having them sit on the bench while Johnson is forced to start won’t help us much.

To see the full results of the mock draft, including who I passed on, how some other teams were built, and analysis about the picks, head over to the Walter Football YouTube Channel!

Source