March may have left the madness behind in 2025.
Often, by the time the NCAA Tournament reaches its fourth round — the Elite Eight — a few of the bracket’s titans and blue-blood programs have already fallen in surprising upsets. While No. 1 seeds are given their spot in the bracket for a reason, it’s extremely rare to see all four of those top teams make it deep into March.
The nature of college basketball often forces at least one No. 1 seed out of the bracket in the opening rounds. In 2024, top-seeded North Carolina and Houston both fell in the Sweet 16. The year prior, all four No. 1 seeds fell before the Elite Eight even arrived, including Purdue, which became just the second-ever No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in the first round.
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The 2025 bracket seems to have defied that unpredictable nature of the postseason. All four No. 1 seeds (Duke, Auburn, Florida and Houston) made it to the Elite Eight. On Saturday, both Florida and Duke advanced to the Final Four, with Houston advancing on Sunday. With just an Auburn win required on Sunday, the Final Four field could be entirely made up of the top seeds. Has that ever happened?
Here’s what to know about the history of all four March Madness No. 1 seeds making it to the Final Four.
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Have all four 1 seeds ever made the Final Four?
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there has only been one instance of all four No. 1 seeds making it to the Final Four.
According to PoolGenius, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 62 of the 156 total Final Four spots (39.7%) since 1985. That means on average, there have been 1.58 top seeds in the Final Four each year.
MORE: How every No. 1 seed could reach the 2025 Final Four
Last time all 1 seeds made the Final Four
The lone season since the NCAA Tournament’s 1985 expansion where the four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four was in 2008.
Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA were awarded the top seeds in the bracket that year. All of those teams advanced through the first four rounds, making history as the first full group of No. 1 seeds to be the last teams standing.
The Jayhawks won the championship in 2008, defeating Memphis 75-68 in the title game. The victory marked Bill Self’s first of two titles at Kansas, and his 2008 roster was headlined by Darrell Arthur, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Darnell Jackson.
March Madness bracket upsets in 2025 compared to history
The numbers back up the feeling many have had about the 2025 March Madness bracket: There are fewer upsets than usual.
According to the NCAA, there has been an average of 8.5 total upsets per NCAA Tournament between 1985-2024 — but that stat only tracked an “upset” as when the winning team was at least five seed lines worse than the losing team. So, for example, no first-round No. 9 over No. 8 seed wins are included.
Using those parameters, the NCAA data showed that there have been at least 10 total upsets in 15 of the 39 brackets between 1985-2024. There have been as few as three total upsets, which happened in 2007, and as many as 14, which happened in 2021 and 2022.
There are 63 total games played in the bracket every year, and the 2025 tournament has completed 58 of them as it the last day of the Elite Eight. Using the same upset parameters as the NCAA data — only counting an “upset” as the winning team being at least five seeds lower than the losing team — there have been four upsets in the 2025 bracket thus far:
- No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis (First round)
- No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri (First round)
- No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Clemson (First round)
- No. 10 Arkansas over No. 2 St. John’s (Second round)
Because the 2025 Elite Eight consists of all No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds, there will be no more upsets of at least a five-seed difference. The final number of upsets will be four this year, which isn’t the fewest in a tournament the NCAA data has tracked (2007 had three), but does rank far below the average total of 8.5.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
Using the NCAA’s parameters, here’s a full breakdown of the average March Madness upsets in total and by round in comparison to 2025:
| Average | Least | Most | 2025 total | |
| Total upsets | 8.5 | 3 (2007) | 14 (2021, 2022) | 4 |
| First round upsets | 4.7 | 1 (2000) | 8 (2016) | 3 |
| Second round upsets | 3 | 0 (five times) | 6 (1996, 1990, 2018) | 1 |
| Sweet 16 upsets | 0.25 | 0 (28 times) | 1 (11 times) | 0 |
| Elite Eight upsets | 0.30 | 0 (27 times) | 2 (2011) | 0 |
| Final Four upsets | 0.10 | 0 (36 times) | 2 (2014) | 0 |
If you count upsets as any lower-seeded team beating a higher-seeded team, the numbers would shift slightly. But there’s often little difference between a 1 and 2 seed, or an 8 and 9 seed, for example, removing the shock factor of the lower seed winning.
The 2025 March Madness bracket hasn’t quite had the fewest true upsets in history, but it has come close. With two No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four and possibly two more on Sunday, it’s clear that this year’s bracket has been all about college basketball’s elite teams.