If the summer had panned out the way Manchester City had planned, Harry Kane would have been wearing blue on Saturday. Instead, he scored Tottenham’s final two goals, including a stoppage-time winner, to blow the Premier League title race wide open by handing City a shock 3-2 defeat.
Pep Guardiola’s Man City are defending champions and have looked like a sure bet to repeat in recent months. But Liverpool are now just six points away, with a game in hand, and a direct showdown against Man City set for April 9. With 12 matches remaining in the season (13 for Liverpool), the league title race is still hanging in the balance and Kane’s a big reason why.
On a three-match losing skid and with rising tensions fueled by some controversial comments from manager Antonio Conte, no one expected Spurs to be able to take three different leads and snatch all three points at the Etihad. And against a Man City side that had conceded just six goals in 12 games at home, no one was expecting Kane — with a solitary goal in his last five league appearances — to score twice.
In fact, Kane has looked nothing like the player Man City were chasing during the summer of 2021 with multiple bids lodged and rejected. Since the move fell through, and with a managerial change midway through the season, both Kane and Spurs have struggled to find themselves again.
But on this Premier League Saturday, it was a vintage performance from Spurs and Kane, who was critical to the visitors’ ability to hurt Man City in transition and hand them only their third loss of the campaign (and second of the season to Spurs).
Kane leads Spurs to unlikely win
It was a remarkable win for Tottenham, who came into the game in worrying form. Conte’s gameplan was simple but effective: When Man City had the ball, his team sat in a 5-4-1 formation. Sometimes Son Heung-min or Dejan Kulusevski would join Kane further forward, but their main focus was congesting the center of the pitch and forcing Man City to play wide.
In doing so, Spurs stopped the hosts from creating good chances. Man City had to push more players forward and take more risks, leaving themselves vulnerable to the counter. And Kane was that counterattacking outlet for Spurs. He would drop into midfield to receive the ball, shield it, and pass it through City’s exposed defense for the next pass to Son or Kulusevski.
The first goal was a textbook example of this. Kane’s movement towards the ball pulled Man City defender Aymeric Laporte with him, and left the other City defender Ruben Dias in no-man’s land, leading to a simple goal for Kulusevski. It was rinse and repeat for Spurs after that: Kane dropping deep, playing a teammate and leading to a chance.
But Kane also reappeared in the box to finish off plays. His goals were a reminder of how dangerous he is at attacking the penalty area. When Spurs established possession, Kane did a great job of getting himself in goalscoring positions. His longstanding chemistry with Son was evident on the second goal, the Korean knowing exactly where to drop the ball for his teammate and then again in a second instance on an attempt denied by Ederson.
The Kane-Kulusevski partnership also looked promising. The Swede twice cut in on his left foot and found the center forward at the far post, with Kane hitting the back of the net. The first goal was disallowed for offside, and the second was the game-winner.
Kane provided a target in the area and Son and Kulusevski had the skill and vision to find him.
How many goals has Kane scored?
Kane needed a game like this, with the normally prolific front man struggling in front of goal this season.
The England striker headed into the match with just five league goals to his name. He had made a habit during the course of his career of overperforming his expected goals (xG), sometimes at unsustainable levels, proving just how strong a finisher he is.
Stripping away penalties, he scored 4.6 goals more than his expected goals total in the 2017-18 season, 1.8 goals more in the 18-19 season, 7 goals more in the 19-20 season, and 1.5 goals more than expected in the 20-21 season.
But entering the City match, Kane was significantly underperforming his xG in 2021-22 with just four non-penalty goals, from a non-penalty expected goals total of nine.
He has been taking shots from a similar distance to goal as he has previously in his career, and he’s also getting as many shots on target per game. However, while in previous years he scored once every five or six shots, this season he has been averaging a goal every 17 shots. It’s been that kind of season for him.
Spurs manager Antonio Conte will be hoping the brace at the Etihad will unlock Kane’s return to his imperious best in front of goal. This Tottenham team is going to need it in order to make a run at a top-four finish.
How Kane nearly joined Man City
The 2021-22 malaise might have been in part attributable to the previous summer’s transfer saga.
It was an open secret that Manchester City had strong interest in the England captain, with Tottenham reportedly turning down multiple bids for the forward.
And Kane himself gave a rare extensive interview with Gary Neville, where he outlined why he was interested in a move away from the club with which he had become synonymous during eight trophy-less seasons.
The 28-year-old Kane claimed that he had a gentleman’s agreement with Tottenham executive Daniel Levy that allowed him to leave to seek out trophies. And when Manchester City waited until late in the window to raise its offer to a reported $200 million, Spurs refused because they didn’t have time to replace him. That made for a total of four formal offers rebuffed by the North London club, and one unhappy Kane.
It was a dramatic summer, with Kane not joining Spurs for preseason training until closer to the start of the season. That led to his being left out of the first two games, including the season-opening 1-0 win over Manchester City. That day chants of “Are you watching Harry Kane?” rained down from Spurs supporters, who were sending a clear message to their wantaway star forward.
Could Kane still join Man City in the summer?
Of course, it’s not out of the question that Kane could still end up wearing Man City sky blue. He turns 29 in the summer, but has more than a few high-quality years left in him.
That does not mean that Man City will come knocking with another $200 million transfer proposal, especially after the $20 million signing of young River Plate star Julian Alvarez, who is expected to formally join the team in the coming summer.
And the question will also be asked: Does Man City still need Kane? They regularly play without a traditional center forward, with a myriad of attacking players operating as an extra attacking midfielder, rather than a traditional target No. 9. Phil Foden has filled the role to good effect in recent weeks, and it remains to be seen whether manager Pep Guardiola will pursue a traditional hitman up front if this system continues to work for his side.
Kane’s current Tottenham contract runs through the summer of 2024, at the end of which he’ll be 31. If Spurs can manage to qualify for the Champions League and perhaps even win the FA Cup this season, he might reconsider whether he needs to fulfill his trophy ambitions elsewhere. But what was said over the summer of 2021 cannot be unsaid.
His frank admissions during the Neville interview are likely to resurface when transfer season comes back around. But a strong three months to close the season and a clear path forward under Conte could yet see the narrative flip. It will take more wins and performances like the one against Man City.