Selection Sunday is one day away, but there is still room for chaos in the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
Start at the top. Will Cooper Flagg be OK? The Duke superstar suffered an ankle injury Thursday Tech and did not play in an ACC semifinal matchup against rival North Carolina.
The Blue Devils, however, are still in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed.
Speaking of the Tar Heels, is North Carolina off a tight bubble race after a close loss to Duke? Indiana and Xavier both lost Thursday. Who will get squeezed out?
How awesome is the SEC tournament? Texas and Texas A&M played a double-overtime classic on Thursday, and that precedes what should be the most-exciting quarterfinal round in recent memory.
What about the old-guard coaches? Will Michigan State flex in the Big Ten tournament under Tom Izzo? Will St. John’s keep rolling in the Big East under Rick Pitino? All of this should set up a fantastic Championship Saturday.
Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are our No. 1 seeds heading into the weekend. Here is a closer look at the bubble:
Last Four In: Boise State, Texas, Indiana, North Carolina
First Four Out: Xavier, San Diego State, Ohio State, Colorado State
This year’s Final Four is April 5-7 at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Who is our Field of 68? Here is a closer look:
+- Clinched automatic bid
* – Projected automatic bid
** – Last four in
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections
No. 1 Seeds
*Auburn (28-4, 15-3 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 2, Net: 2. It’s a toss-up for the No. 1 overall seed after Auburn lost its last two regular-season games against Texas A&M and Alabama. Yet the Tigers have an impressive 15-4 record against Quad 1 that might be impossible for the committee to ignore. Auburn beat Ole Miss 62-57 in the SEC quarterfinals on Friday.
*Duke (30-3, 19-1 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 1, Net: 1. Duke used eight players because of injuries to Cooper Flagg (ankle) and Maliq Brown (shoulder) and still pulled out a 74-71 victory against North Carolina. The Blue Devils hit the 30-win mark and will have the opportunity to win a second ACC championship in three years.
MORE: Duke avoids cruel fate Cincinnati suffered with Kenyon Martin injury in 2000
*Houston (29-4, 19-1 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 3, Net: 3. Houston hammered BYU 84-64 in the Big 12 semifinals. Sporting News Coach of the Year Kelvin Sampson has molded another No. 1 seed no matter what happens in their second Big 12 championship appearance.
Florida (28-4, 14-4 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. The Gators have won 10 of their last 11 games. Guard Walter Clayton scored 18 points with six assists in a 95-81 victory against Missouri. The Gators will have to hold off Michigan State for the final No. 1 seed, and it’s close. Florida is 8-4 in Quad 1.
BENDER: From football to fatherhood to the Final Four? Walter Clayton’s basketball journey
No. 2 Seeds
*Michigan State (27-5, 17-3 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 10. Tom Izzo it at it again. The Spartans beat Oregon 74-64 in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Michigan State is 12-4 against Quad 1 – the second-highest win total among Division I schools. The Spartans are squarely in the conversation for the last No. 1 seed.
Alabama (25-7, 13-5 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 6. Nate Oats is on to something. Alabama also has a case for a No. 1 seed with a 12-7 record against Quad 1, which continued with a 99-70 victory against Kentucky in the SEC quarterfinals. Labaron Philon scored 21 points, and five players hit double digits.
Tennessee (26-6, 12-6 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 5. The Vols opened SEC tournament action with a 83-72 victory against Texas. Tennessee has a 9-6 record against Quad 1, and the Volunteers did not have a loss in Quads 2-4. That should translate into a No. 2 seed for the third time in six seasons under coach Rick Barnes.
*St. John’s (29-4, 18-2 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 13, Net: 14. Texas Tech also is projected on this line, but we like the Red Storm under Rick Pitino if they win the Big East tournament. We are not as worried about the 4-4 record in Quad 1. St. John’s beat Marquette 79-63 in the Big East semifinals Friday and is in the championship game for the first time since 2000.
DECOURCY: Expanding NCAA Tournament is a solution looking for a problem
No. 3 Seeds
Texas Tech (25-8, 15-5 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 7. Injuries have hit the Red Raiders hard. Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams were out in a 86-80 loss to Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals. Texas Tech has a strong ranking combination, but they might have to settle for this seed under second-year coach Grant McCasland.
Iowa State (24-9, 13-7 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 9. BYU beat Iowa State 96-92 in the Big 12 tournament, and that early exit likely will keep the Cyclones off the No. 2 line despite a 9-6 record in Quad 1. Iowa State will make its fourth straight tournament appearance under T.J. Otzelberger, and they have advanced to the Sweet 16 twice in that stretch.
Maryland (25-7, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 14, Net: 12. The Terrapins continue to move up the rankings, and they routed Illinois 88-65 in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Rodney Rice led four double-digit scorers with 26 points. Maryland is hot at the right time.
Texas A&M (22-10, 11-7 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 20, Net: 18. The Aggies lost a 94-89 double-overtime thriller against rival Texas on Thursday, which got the Longhorns off the bubble and opened the door for Kentucky to take a No. 3 seed. Texas A&M does have a 8-7 record against Quad 1.
No. 4 seeds
Arizona (22-11, 13-5 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 11. Arizona is in the Big 12 tournament championship in its first year in the Big 12 after a 86-80 victory against Texas Tech. Caleb Love scored 27 points. That improves the Wildcats’ record to 10-9 against Quad 1 teams, and they are on a tear at the right time.
Kentucky (22-11, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 15, Net: 13. The Wildcats are one of just five schools with 10 Quad 1 victories, but they got a reality check in a 99-70 blowout loss against Alabama in the SEC quarterfinals. First-year coach Mark Pope will now face the pressure of his first tournament appearance with the Wildcats.
Wisconsin (25-8, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 18. Wisconsin continued to impress with a 86-70 victory against UCLA on Friday; a game in which John Tonje was 6 of 6 from 3-point range and scored 26 points. The Badgers are 15-8 in Quads 1-2 and don’t have a bad loss heading into Saturday’s matchup against Michigan State in the Big Ten semifinals.
Michigan (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 30, Net: 30. Michigan’s seed continues to fluctuate after a 86-68 victory against Purdue in the Big Ten quarterfinals. The Wolverines broke out of a shooting slump and hit 52% from the field. Michigan is 9-7 against Quad 1 heading into Saturday’s semifinal matchup with Maryland.
No. 5 seeds
Purdue (22-11, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 16, Net: 16. The Boilermakers lost to Michigan and likely will fall behind the Wolverines in the Big Ten pecking order as a result. They could end up on the same seed line. Purdue is 15-11 in Quads 1-2 and does not have a bad loss.
Missouri (22-11, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 17, Net: 17. The Tigers lost to Florida in the SEC quarterfinals. Missouri’s resume is being under-valued a touch. The Tigers have a 7-10 record against Quad 1 without a loss in Quads 2-4. Dennis Gates has Missouri in the tournament for the second time in three years.
BYU (24-9, 14-6 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 23, Net: 23. The Cougars had their nine-game winning streak snapped in a 74-54 loss to Houston. Still, BYU is 7-6 in Quad 1 with two Quad 2 losses. The Cougars will hover between the No. 5 and No. 6 line, and it could go either way.
Louisville (27-6, 18-2 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 24, Net: 26. The Cardinals beat Stanford 75-73 and Clemson 76-73 in the ACC tournament, and that will lead to another jump in the bracket. Will Pat Kelsey lead an ACC championship run in Year 1 against Duke? Terrence Edwards scored 21 points.
No. 6 seeds
Clemson (27-6, 18-2 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 19, Net: 22. The Tigers rallied late, but a wild 76-73 loss to Louisville likely drops Clemson to this line. A 4-2 record against Quad 1 will be a difference here despite the strong conference record in the ACC.
Oregon (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 31, Net: 28. The loss to Michigan State should not affect the Ducks’ seeding too much. Oregon is 9-6 in Quad 1 and will also hover between the No. 5 and No. 6 line.
UCLA (22-10, 13-7 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 27, Net: 24. The Bruins have a 9-7 Quad 1 record, but there is little room for improvement after a 86-70 loss to Wisconsin in their first Big Ten tournament game. UCLA will make its fourth tournament appearance in the last five years under Mick Cronin.
Ole Miss (22-11, 10-8 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 25, Net: 27. Sean Pedulla hit a 3-pointer with 1.3 seconds left to secure a 83-80 victory against Arkansas. Ole Miss lost 62-57 to Auburn in the quarterfinals. The Rebels own a 6-9 record against Quad 1, but they do not have a loss outside Quad 2.
No. 7 seeds
Illinois (21-12, 12-8 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 18, Net: 15. Illinois had its four-game winning streak snapped in a 88-65 loss to Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals. The Illini have a 8-9 record in Quad 1, however, and they should hold on this line.
Saint Mary’s (28-5, 17-1 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 22, Net: 21. The Gaels dropped from No. 5 to No. 6 after the 58-51 loss to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament. Saint Mary’s has a 4-3 record against Quad 1.
Kansas (21-12, 11-9 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 21, Net: 20. Kansas is a prime candidate to be over-seeded after splitting its last 10 games. That included three losses in four tries against ranked teams. Will the Jayhawks fall to the No. 8 line? Bill Self has a challenge heading into the tournament.
+Gonzaga (25-8, 14-4 West Coast)
Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 10. The West Coast Conference champions are tough to seed. Will they be put a line or two below regular-season champion Saint Mary’s? Gonzaga ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 86.6 points per game.
No. 8 seeds
Creighton (24-9, 15-5 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 36, Net: 40. Creighton swaps a line after beating UConn 71-62 in the Big East semifinals. Jasen Green scored 19 points, and the Blue Jays are 6-6 against Quad 1 with the victory.
Mississippi State (21-11, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 32, Net: 34. The Bulldogs’ late-season slide – which led to losses in five of their last seven games – continued against Missouri in the SEC tournament. That means sitting on the No. 8 line for the second consecutive season.
*Memphis (27-5, 16-2 American)
Resume: KenPom: 52, Net: 48. Memphis beat Wichita State 83-80 on Friday. The Tigers begin American Athletic Conference tournament play Friday. Tigers coach Penny Hardaway is in line for a third straight tournament appearance, and a strong 6-1 Quad 1 record is strong. Bubble teams need Memphis to win the AAC.
UConn (23-10, 14-6 Big East)
Resume: KenPom 33, Net 29. UConn or Marquette will take this spot. The Huskies are 13-9 against Quads 1-2. The Golden Eagles are 10-9. The Huskies, the two-time defending national champions, get the slight benefit of the doubt.
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Rest of the field …
No. 9 seeds
Marquette (23-10, 13-7 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 26, Net: 25.
Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 40, Net: 39.
*New Mexico (26-7, 17-3 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 41, Net: 42.
Utah State (26-7, 15-5 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 51, Net: 37.
No. 10 seeds
Baylor (19-14, 10-10 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 28, Net: 31.
Georgia (20-12, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 34, Net: 33.
+Drake (30-3, 17-3 OVC)
Resume: KenPom: 58, Net: 56.
West Virginia (19-13, 10-10 Big 12)
Resume: KenPom: 53, Net: 50.
No. 11 seeds
*VCU (26-6, 15-3 Atlantic-10)
Resume: KenPom: 29, Net: 32.
*UC-San Diego (29-4, 18-2 Big West)
Resume: KenPom: 39, Net: 36.
Vanderbilt (20-12, 8-10 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 48, Net: 47.
Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12 SEC)
Resume: KenPom: 37, Net: 44.
No. 12 seeds
+McNeese (27-6, 19-1 Southland)
Resume: KenPom: 59, Net: 58.
*Liberty (27-6, 13-5 C-USA)
Resume: KenPom: 62, Net: 63.
**Boise State (24-9, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 44, Net: 43.
**Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC)
Resume: KenPom 44, Net 41.
**Indiana (19-13, 10-10 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 47, Net: 54.
**North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 ACC)
Resume: KenPom: 35, Net: 35.
No. 13 seeds
*Yale (20-7, 13-1 Ivy)
Resume: KenPom: 72, Net: 71.
+High Point (29-5, 14-2 Big South)
Resume: KenPom: 85, Net: 82.
+Lipscomb (25-9, 14-4 Atlantic Sun)
Resume: KenPom: 82, Net: 84.
*Akron (27-6, 17-1 MAC)
Resume: KenPom: 99, Net: 91.
No. 14 seeds
+Troy (23-10, 13-5 Sun Belt)
Resume: KenPom: 97, Net: 100.
+UNC-Wilmington (27-7, 14-4 CAA)
Resume: KenPom: 105, Net: 102.
*Utah Valley (25-7, 15-1 WAC)
Resume: KenPom: 120, Net: 107.
+Robert Morris (26-8, 15-5 Horizon)
Resume: KenPom: 139, Net: 140.
No. 15 seeds
+Montana (25-9, 15-3 Big Sky)
Resume: KenPom: 156, Net: 141.
+Wofford (19-15, 10-8 Southern)
Resume: KenPom: 119, Net: 131.
*Bryant (22-11, 14-2 America East)
Resume: KenPom: 152, Net: 150.
+Omaha (21-12, 13-3 Summit)
Resume: KenPom: 155, Net: 160.
No. 16 seeds
*Norfolk State (23-10, 11-3 MEAC)
Resume: KenPom: 1278, Net: 183.
+SIU Edwardsville (22-11, 13-7 OVC)
Resume: KenPom: 218, Net: 216.
**Mount St. Mary’s (21-12, 12-8 MAAC)
Resume: KenPom: 257, Net: 248.
+**American (22-12, 13-5 Patriot)
Resume: KenPom: 237, Net: 226.
**Jackson State (16-17, 14-4 SWAC)
Resume: KenPom: 250, Net: 272.
+**Saint Francis, Pa. (16-17, 8-8 Northeast)
Resume: KenPom: 311, Net: 297.
Bubble watch
Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East)
Resume: KenPom: 43, Net: 46. The Musketeers lost 87-85 to Marquette in a heart-breaker, and that pushes the Musketeers back to the bubble. Can they overcome a 1-8 record against Quad 1 and get in ahead of North Carolina?
Colorado State (24-9, 16-4 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 50, Net: 52. The Rams beat Utah State 83-72 to advance to the Mountain West Conference championship game. Could they slip into the 68-team field as an at-large?
San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 MWC)
Resume: KenPom: 46, Net: 51. The Aztecs lost to Boise State 62-52 in what felt like a play-in game for the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State has a 3-5 record in Quad 1. Is that good enough for the conference to get a fourth team in?
Ohio State (17-15, 9-11 Big Ten)
Resume: KenPom: 38, Net: 41. Will the Big Ten get a 10th team in the field? The Buckeyes lost to Iowa 77-70 in the Big Ten tournament. Ohio State does have a 6-11 record against Quad 1, they also have four Quad 2 losses.