It’s bracket time.
The field for the 2023 NCAA Tournament is set, which means it’s time for everyone to start getting their brackets filled out. Picking a perfect bracket isn’t easy. In fact, it’s nearly impossible. No model can bring out all the right answers, no matter the science and code behind it.
But that won’t stop us from trying. With 68 teams set to compete in 63 games, any bit of information can help, and The Sporting News is hoping to provide some insight into how the March Madness might unfold.
The Sporting News is rolling out its projection model that evaluates the field and which teams are the most likely to come out of each matchup. The model is based on a composite ranking from the Pomeroy, Sagarin and ESPN BPI ratings, as well as The Sporting News’ ratings for each team based on their offensive and defensive stats in each game throughout the 2022-23 season. The model then runs a Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament 20,000 times and records the outcomes for each result.
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Here is a look at the current odds for the entire 2023 March Madness bracket, as well as what The Sporting News’ model says about the field.
March Madness odds 2023
It should come as no surprise, but early odds are favoring the No. 1 seeds. According to BetMGM, Houston has a +550 chance of winning the national championship. Kansas is second.
| Region | Team | Seed | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | Houston | 1 | +550 |
| West | Kansas | 1 | +800 |
| South | Alabama | 1 | +800 |
| East | Purdue | 1 | +1100 |
| West | UCLA | 2 | +1200 |
| South | Arizona | 2 | +1200 |
Here’s a look at the teams with the best odds for each seed in the tournament.
| Seed | Region | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Midwest | Houston | +550 |
| 2 | West/South | UCLA/Kansas | +1200 |
| 3 | West | Gonzaga | +1800 |
| 4 | West | Connecticut | +1600 |
| 5 | East | Duke | +3000 |
| 6 | West | TCU | +3500 |
| 7 | Midwest | Texas A&M | +5000 |
| 8 | South | Maryland | +8000 |
| 9 | West | Illinois | +8000 |
| 10 | Midwest | Penn State | +15000 |
| 11 | East | Providence | +12500 |
| 12 | East/South | Oral Roberts/Charleston | +25000 |
| 13 | West | Iona | +50000 |
| 14 | South | UC Santa Barbara | +100000 |
| 15 | East/Midwest | Vermont/Colgate | +100000 |
| 16 | All | All | +100000 |
Noticing a theme? The battle for the west could well wind up being the most hotly contested in this year’s field. Of the 15 seeds, the west has six of the best odds by seed to win it all, per BetMGM. All other regions are tied with four.
MORE: Download a free 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket PDF here
The Sporting News model agrees with oddsmakers, and views Houston as the favorite to emerge from the madness with a title. Here’s a look at the model’s projected top five, with the percentage to win converted to odds.
| Region | Team | Seed | Title Win Percent | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midwest | Houston | 1 | 16.57% | +504 |
| South | Alabama | 1 | 12.27% | +715 |
| West | UCLA | 2 | 9.72% | +929 |
| East | Tennessee | 4 | 7.07% | +1314 |
| Midwest | Texas | 2 | 6.32% | +1484 |
Interestingly, only two of the top five teams based on TSN’s model are No. 1 seeds in their regions. UCLA and Texas are each No. 2 seeds in their respective regions, while Tennessee comes in all the way down from a No. 4 seed in the east. That is largely because, as the betting odds agree, Purdue is the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. The model has the Boilermakers at just a 5.48 percent chance to win the title.
NCAA Tournament odds to advance by region
Here is a look at the odds for each team to advance past each region, as well as the projected run for each team based on The Sporting News’ model.
It should be noted that teams in the play-in or facing play-in teams will have their odds and model projections updated once the games are concluded. Odds for teams to reach the Elite Eight will be updated as they are released.
East
Oddsmakers aren’t as high on the east region as the other three. Of all the three No. 1 seeds, Purdue has the lowest title odds among top teams and the region’s No. 2 seed, Marquette, ranks behind all other twos, two three seeds and a four seed.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue | TBD | -200 | TBD | +250 |
| 2 | Marquette | -750 | -145 | TBD | +450 |
| 3 | Kansas State | -500 | +125 | TBD | +900 |
| 4 | Tennessee | -550 | +500 | TBD | -110 |
| 5 | Duke | -300 | +150 | TBD | +900 |
| 6 | Kentucky | -165 | +180 | TBD | +1200 |
| 7 | Michigan State | -125 | +300 | TBD | +1400 |
| 8 | Memphis | +120 | +400 | TBD | +2000 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | -145 | +500 | TBD | +3500 |
| 10 | USC | +105 | +400 | TBD | +3000 |
| 11 | Providence | +140 | +350 | TBD | +3500 |
| 12 | Oral Roberts | +240 | +1200 | TBD | +10000 |
| 13 | Louisiana | +400 | +1200 | TBD | +10000 |
| 14 | Montana State | +375 | +1600 | TBD | +10000 |
| 15 | Vermont | +525 | +2000 | TBD | +10000 |
| 16 | Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson | TBD | TBD | TBD | +10000 |
The wide-open nature of this region means that it has few huge upset picks. Though the odds for Purdue vs. its No. 16 opponent have yet to be released, the East region is the only region where the No. 2 seed isn’t also at least a 1,000-point favorite to its first-round opponent. Still, the only time the favored team is also a lower seed is No. 9 Florida Atlantic opening as a -145 favorite to No. 8 Memphis.
The model agrees that this region is wide open, and because of that, all the teams have relatively low title odds, with one notable exception. Despite coming in at No. 4, Tennessee is viewed as a relative favorite compared to each of the three seeds above it in Purdue, Marquette and Kansas State.
MORE: Florida Atlantic, Oral Roberts among bracket-busting picks
It also gives decent odds on a pair of intriguing upset picks with Vermont and Montana State each having more than a 15 percent chance of upsetting Marquette and Kansas State, marking only two of three teams below a 13 seed with such odds.
Looking for a pair of lower seeds to win it all? Perennial title contenders Duke and Kentucky might have low odds to win this year’s trophy, but they’re better value than betting on Kansas State as the three seed.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue | 98.22% | 62.96% | 33.70% | 20.86% | 11.54% | 5.48% |
| 2 | Marquette | 83.36% | 49.78% | 29.90% | 14.60% | 6.86% | 2.79% |
| 3 | Kansas State | 79.60% | 42.88% | 20.58% | 8.12% | 3.00% | 0.98% |
| 4 | Tennessee | 86.86% | 61.34% | 36.78% | 24.26% | 13.68% | 7.07% |
| 5 | Duke | 68.16% | 28.00% | 12.22% | 7.16% | 3.02% | 0.93% |
| 6 | Kentucky | 57.48% | 31.22% | 16.52% | 6.48% | 3.12% | 0.87% |
| 7 | Michigan State | 52.04% | 24.46% | 12.18% | 4.40% | 1.18% | 0.47% |
| 8 | Memphis | 55.24% | 21.36% | 8.88% | 3.92% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 44.76% | 15.56% | 5.90% | 2.40% | 0.80% | 0.28% |
| 10 | USC | 47.96% | 20.34% | 9.04% | 3.14% | 0.84% | 0.34% |
| 11 | Providence | 42.52% | 21.62% | 9.74% | 3.38% | 0.96% | 0.33% |
| 12 | Oral Roberts | 31.84% | 7.50% | 1.96% | 0.74% | 0.18% | 0.07% |
| 13 | Louisiana | 13.14% | 3.16% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Montana State | 20.40% | 4.28% | 1.02% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Vermont | 16.64% | 5.42% | 1.02% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Texas Southern/Fairleigh Dickinson | 1.78% | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
Midwest
Houston is the current title favorite to win based on oddsmakers, which makes coming out of this field difficult for any other team. It’s why No. 2 Texas, despite being viewed as a quality team, trails two other No. 2 seeds overall in the odds. For the Longhorns to win a title, they would have to beat the Cougars.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | -5000 | -350 | TBD | +140 |
| 2 | Texas | -1200 | -130 | TBD | +400 |
| 3 | Xavier | -650 | +105 | TBD | +1000 |
| 4 | Indiana | -200 | +140 | TBD | +1400 |
| 5 | Miami | -165 | +175 | TBD | +2000 |
| 6 | Iowa State | TBD | +200 | TBD | +1600 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | -150 | +225 | TBD | +1200 |
| 8 | Iowa | +100 | +600 | TBD | +3000 |
| 9 | Auburn | -115 | +700 | TBD | +2500 |
| 10 | Penn State | +125 | +500 | TBD | +3000 |
| 11 | Mississippi State/Pitt | TBD | TBD | TBD | +6600/+8000 |
| 12 | Drake | +135 | +500 | TBD | +6600 |
| 13 | Kent State | +165 | +700 | TBD | +10000 |
| 14 | Kennesaw State | +450 | +1600 | TBD | +10000 |
| 15 | Colgate | +725 | +2000 | TBD | +10000 |
| 16 | Northern Kentucky | +1400 | +8000 | TBD | +10000 |
BetMGM has a few teams as being possible upset picks. Drake and Kent State have the best odds for any 12 and 13 seeds to win their first-round matchups against Miami and Indiana. No. 9 Auburn is a narrow favorite against No. 8 Iowa.
MORE: When does March Madness start?
The model views Houston as far-and-away the favorite coming out of the No. 1 seed, with Texas more than 10 percent behind, though still with strong odds to win the championship. Three and four seeds Xavier and Indiana are the only other teams with more than a 1 percent chance to come win it all.
The model agrees with the odds that Drake looks like it could make for an interesting 12-5 upset against Miami. The Bulldogs have a 42.9 percent chance of beating Miami, the best of any No. 12 seed in the field. They also have the best odds of any team outside the region’s top seven to reach the Sweet 16.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | 95.62% | 72.06% | 57.58% | 39.94% | 26.04% | 16.57% |
| 2 | Texas | 87.94% | 59.28% | 40.56% | 20.04% | 12.40% | 6.32% |
| 3 | Xavier | 85.84% | 48.62% | 21.12% | 8.64% | 3.76% | 1.70% |
| 4 | Indiana | 67.22% | 39.94% | 14.02% | 6.58% | 2.48% | 1.01% |
| 5 | Miami | 57.08% | 28.08% | 7.84% | 3.00% | 1.04% | 0.34% |
| 6 | Iowa State | 62.78% | 31.86% | 14.50% | 5.60% | 2.24% | 0.80% |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 57.94% | 24.16% | 11.88% | 4.78% | 2.22% | 0.85% |
| 8 | Iowa | 48.78% | 12.30% | 5.44% | 2.76% | 0.82% | 0.40% |
| 9 | Auburn | 51.22% | 14.92% | 8.18% | 3.08% | 1.14% | 0.49% |
| 10 | Penn State | 42.06% | 13.88% | 5.52% | 2.24% | 0.58% | 0.17% |
| 11 | Mississippi State/Pitt | 37.22% | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 12 | Drake | 42.92% | 17.74% | 3.96% | 1.18% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 13 | Kent State | 32.78% | 14.24% | 2.80% | 1.04% | 0.14% | 0.05% |
| 14 | Kennesaw State | 14.16% | 2.96% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Colgate | 12.06% | 2.68% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Northern Kentucky | 4.38% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
South
There is certainly a case to be made for the south having the most difficult No. 1 and 2 seeds to face in the bracket. No. 1 Alabama is tied with west top seed Kansas for the second-best title odds overall, while No. 2 Arizona comes in tied with UCLA for the fifth-best odds to win a championship.
Odds for Virginia’s matchup against Furman had not been released at the time of publication.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | TBD | -300 | TBD | +190 |
| 2 | Arizona | -1200 | -225 | TBD | +500 |
| 3 | Baylor | -650 | +110 | TBD | +550 |
| 4 | Virginia | TBD | +150 | TBD | +1200 |
| 5 | San Diego State | -200 | +135 | TBD | +875 |
| 6 | Creighton | -225 | +155 | TBD | +800 |
| 7 | Missouri | +115 | +650 | TBD | +5000 |
| 8 | Maryland | +120 | +550 | TBD | +2200 |
| 9 | West Virginia | -145 | +400 | TBD | +1800 |
| 10 | Utah State | -140 | +375 | TBD | +3000 |
| 11 | NC State | +180 | +600 | TBD | +5000 |
| 12 | Charleston | +165 | +650 | TBD | +8000 |
| 13 | Furman | TBD | +800 | TBD | +10000 |
| 14 | UC Santa Barbara | +450 | +1400 | TBD | +10000 |
| 15 | Princeton | +750 | +1400 | TBD | +10000 |
| 16 | Southeast Missouri State/Texas A&M-CC | TBD | TBD | TBD | +10000 |
There is only one region where two teams ranked below the No. 8 seed are favored to win their opening round matchup, and that is the south. No. 9 West Virginia and No. 10 Utah State both enter as the first-round favorites to beat No. 8 Maryland and No. 7 Missouri, respectively.
MORE: How to pick Virginia vs. Furman
Oddsmakers are certainly leaving open the possibility for several upsets, as even No. 11 NC State and No. 12 Charleston come in with odds below +200 to pull off wins against No. 6 Creighton and No. 5 San Diego State.
Utah State appears to be the place to start when looking at upsets, based on the projection model. The Aggies are 58.9 percent favorites to beat Missouri, per its projections, while West Virginia is just a narrow 50.9 percent favorite.
Creighton could be an interesting team to count on going far in this year’s bracket. The No. 6 Bluejays have the fourth-best championship odds in the region, per the model, and have nearly a 20 percent chance of reaching the Elite Eight.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 97.26% | 68.96% | 52.50% | 34.56% | 19.56% | 12.27% |
| 2 | Arizona | 86.44% | 57.46% | 33.70% | 17.64% | 7.92% | 4.26% |
| 3 | Baylor | 82.44% | 45.16% | 24.10% | 10.68% | 5.00% | 2.10% |
| 4 | Virginia | 70.40% | 36.46% | 11.58% | 5.24% | 1.60% | 0.67% |
| 5 | San Diego State | 67.56% | 40.38% | 14.46% | 6.72% | 2.10% | 0.99% |
| 6 | Creighton | 65.40% | 35.68% | 18.02% | 8.68% | 4.16% | 1.71% |
| 7 | Missouri | 41.10% | 14.92% | 5.94% | 1.72% | 0.62% | 0.14% |
| 8 | Maryland | 49.10% | 15.16% | 7.88% | 3.50% | 1.34% | 0.49% |
| 9 | West Virginia | 50.90% | 15.48% | 8.74% | 4.34% | 1.80% | 0.66% |
| 10 | Utah State | 58.90% | 24.50% | 10.46% | 3.68% | 1.54% | 0.55% |
| 11 | NC State | 34.60% | 15.20% | 6.32% | 1.94% | 0.72% | 0.19% |
| 12 | Charleston | 32.44% | 13.68% | 2.86% | 0.80% | 0.10% | 0.08% |
| 13 | Furman | 29.60% | 9.48% | 1.90% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| 14 | UC Santa Barbara | 17.56% | 3.96% | 0.70% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Princeton | 13.56% | 3.12% | 0.76% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Southeast Missouri State/Texas A&M-CC | 2.74% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
West
The west looks to have the most difficult bracket in this year’s tournament. Kansas is tied for the second-best title odds with Alabama and is the biggest favorite to advance to the Round of 32. UCLA is tied for the fifth-best title odds and is tied with Houston for the best odds to reach the Round of 32 (though Alabama’s odds have not been released yet). And Gonzaga and Connecticut each have the best odds to win the title and advance past the first round of any team in their respective seeds.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | -10000 | -250 | TBD | +350 |
| 2 | UCLA | -5000 | -250 | TBD | +300 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | -2000 | -145 | TBD | +400 |
| 4 | Connecticut | -550 | +100 | TBD | +500 |
| 5 | Saint Mary’s | -190 | +170 | TBD | +1000 |
| 6 | TCU | TBD | +200 | TBD | +1000 |
| 7 | Northwestern | +100 | TBD | TBD | +4000 |
| 8 | Arkansas | -145 | +350 | TBD | +2000 |
| 9 | Illinois | +120 | +425 | TBD | +2500 |
| 10 | Boise State | -120 | +600 | TBD | +5000 |
| 11 | Arizona State/Nevada | TBD | TBD | TBD | +10000 |
| 12 | VCU | +155 | +800 | TBD | +10000 |
| 13 | Iona | +400 | +1000 | TBD | +10000 |
| 14 | Grand Canyon | +950 | +1600 | TBD | +10000 |
| 15 | UNC Asheville | +1400 | +5000 | TBD | +10000 |
| 16 | Howard | +2000 | NA | TBD | NA |
There’s potentially some room for upsets here, but not much. No. 10 Boise State is favored against No. 7 Northwestern and No. 12 VCU has close odds to No. 5 Saint Mary’s, but this appears to be a fairly chalky region. Of course, in March, that could always mean it’s the most likely region to feature plenty of upsets.
The model certainly agrees with the oddsmakers that this region is as chalky as it gets. It has the top eight seeds all favored to win their first-round matchups, with the Broncos again appearing to be the most likely team to pull off the upset over the Wildcats at 48.54 percent.
MORE: Why Oklahoma State, Rutgers, UNC, Clemson missed tournament
However, the model does highlight some possible opportunities to pick up some relative sleepers and have them go deep in the tournament. This is the only region with five teams with greater than a 1 percent chance to win the championship, and each of the top four teams have greater than a 4.2 percent chance to win it all.
| Seed | Team | Round of 32 | Sweet Sixteen | Elite Eight | Final Four | Championship | Title winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | 95.30% | 58.08% | 32.64% | 16.48% | 7.68% | 4.24% |
| 2 | UCLA | 93.26% | 70.24% | 45.00% | 28.22% | 16.46% | 9.72% |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 85.82% | 58.34% | 31.38% | 16.78% | 9.50% | 4.60% |
| 4 | Connecticut | 78.70% | 51.38% | 30.48% | 15.94% | 8.90% | 4.54% |
| 5 | Saint Mary’s | 66.36% | 30.32% | 14.46% | 5.94% | 3.34% | 1.17% |
| 6 | TCU | 64.26% | 27.44% | 10.26% | 3.76% | 2.06% | 0.86% |
| 7 | Northwestern | 51.46% | 14.58% | 5.32% | 1.92% | 0.64% | 0.19% |
| 8 | Arkansas | 54.74% | 23.48% | 10.04% | 4.00% | 2.08% | 0.73% |
| 9 | Illinois | 45.26% | 17.96% | 6.80% | 2.86% | 1.12% | 0.34% |
| 10 | Boise State | 48.54% | 14.10% | 4.84% | 1.40% | 0.70% | 0.18% |
| 11 | Arizona State/Nevada | 35.74% | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 12 | VCU | 33.64% | 11.02% | 3.58% | 1.20% | 0.28% | 0.13% |
| 13 | Iona | 21.30% | 7.28% | 1.96% | 0.58% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 14 | Grand Canyon | 14.18% | 3.78% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
| 15 | UNC Asheville | 6.74% | 1.08% | 0.12% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Howard | 4.70% | 0.48% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |