More than a few people had their brackets busted after the first round — make that first afternoon — of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but even if you’re already out of the running in your bracket pool, there are still plenty of opportunities to make money during March Madness.
It’s easy to overreact to what we saw on the first day of the tournament, but you have to remember it’s just one game. Just because North Carolina dominated and Creighton struggled doesn’t mean that will continue. Be smart and consult all the numbers, not just a teams’ most recent performance.
Below, we sort through the stats to break down all eight games and offer up our picks, both for straight-up moneyline bets and bets against-the-spread.
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March Madness picks, predictions for Round 2
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
No. 1 Baylor (-5.5) vs. No. 8 UNC (East)
Both teams looked good in their first-round matchups, and the high-scoring Tar Heels have now won seven of their past eight games by an average of 14.1 points (one went to OT). Even with their recent success, UNC is just 23rd in the Pomeroy Ratings compared to second for Baylor, who have won six of their past seven. It’s worth noting that prior to Thursday’s first-round drubbing of Norfolk State, the Bears’ MOV in that stretch was just 7.2. Overall, North Carolina is just 2-4 ATS against ranked opponents this year. Baylor is 5-5 against ranked teams, but its average MOV is just 4.7. Given the Heels’ strong recent play, we have think they can keep it close enough to cover. It’s not crazy to pick them to win outright, but we’re trusting Baylor’s 12th-ranked defense to carry it to the Sweet 16.
Pick: Baylor to WIN but NOT COVER.
No. 1 Kansas (-11.5) vs. No. 9 Creighton (Midwest)
Creighton barely squeaked by San Diego State after trailing virtually all game, so it’s easy to dismiss the Bluejays against a top-tier Kansas team. However, they’re 7-4 ATS against ranked opponents this year. That somewhat belies their No. 54 rating on Kenpom, but their tough defense can slow teams down. The problem is the Bluejays struggle from deep, shooting just 30.3 percent from deep (down to just 21.2 in their past three games), so if they fall behind early, it’s not easy for them to come back like they did in the opening round. This is a pretty big spread for a second-round matchup between two solid teams, but after Creighton expended so much energy to come back and eventually win on Thursday night, we could see it ultimately gassing out against a superior Kansas squad.
Pick: Kansas to WIN and COVER.
No. 3 Tennessee (-6) vs. No. 11 Michigan (South)
Michigan’s win-one, lose-one streak continued with its first-round victory over Colorado State, and while it might have been an “upset” based on seeds, it wasn’t according to the sportsbooks. Despite a frustrating season for the Wolverines, they’re still a highly talented team capable of staying with and beating anyone. However, Tennessee is one of the hottest teams in the country and sits at No. 6 in the Kenpom Ratings, thanks in part to its No. 2 rating in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan is a decent shooting team (62nd in the country in true shooting percentage), but it’s tough to trust it against a team playing as well as Tennessee right now.
Pick: Tennessee to WIN and COVER.
No. 4 Providence (-3) vs. No. 12 Richmond (Midwest)
Providence seemed to be the most common first-round upset pick, and not only did the Friars take care of business against South Dakota State, but they did so convincingly. Meanwhile, the Spiders pulled off a somewhat-shocking upset of Iowa. Part of the reason both results were “surprising” is because Providence is the most overseeded team in the tournament (based on the Kenpom Ratings) and Richmond doesn’t really stand out statistically in any area. There isn’t much pointing to either team, but we like that Richmond has a pair of go-to guys in Jacob Gilyard and Tyler Burton. Richmond has been playing for their postseason lives since the start of the A10 tournament, so we expect them to once again answer the bell.
Pick: Richmond to WIN.
No. 4 UCLA (-3) vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s (East)
UCLA struggled mightily in its first-round win against Akron while Saint Mary’s absolutely blew out Indiana. Given those two results, it’s easy to grab Saint Mary’s, at least with the points, but UCLA is still the much more talented and experienced team. While both of these squads are in the overall top 15 on Kenpom, UCLA is the only one who rates in the top 15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Saint Mary’s offense can get bogged down at times, but with this tight of a spread, UCLA doesn’t have to do much to cover as long as it’s in position to win late. It’s also not encouraging that Saint Mary’s is just 1-2-1 ATS against ranked opponents this year.
Pick: UCLA to WIN and COVER.
No. 7 Murray State (-8.5) vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s (East)
Last year, the clock didn’t strike midnight until the Sweet 16 for 15th-seeded Oral Roberts. Can this year’s Cinderella extend their dance that long, too? As good as Saint Peter’s looked on Thursday, it’s highly unlikely it shoots 52.9 percent from deep again. During the season, the Peacocks shot just 35.4 percent from three — still good, but not unbelievable. Murray State is efficient on both offense and defense, ranking in the top 41 in both on Kenpom. Of course, Kentucky was better in both and still lost to the Peacocks, but we have a tough time seeing that happen again. It wouldn’t be a shock if Saint Peter’s covered, but tread carefully with moneyline bets.
Pick: Murray State to WIN and COVER.
No. 4 Arkansas (-6.5) vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (West)
We’ve seen underdogs ride a hot-shooting player deep in the tournament, and New Mexico State’s Teddy Allen certainly fits the profile after his 37-point outburst in the first round. The problem with trusting a team like that is the potential for a letdown if said player is missing shots (or not getting to the free throw line 13 times). Arkansas can go minutes without scoring in any game, relying on its 29th-ranked defense to carry the day. That’s also a tough type of team to rely on. New Mexico State plays solid enough defense that we think it can give the Hogs trouble even if Allen isn’t quite as hot as Thursday, but unless the Aggies find another contributor, Allen will have to be high level once again.
Pick: Arkansas to WIN but NOT COVER.
No. 1 Gonzaga (-10.5) vs. No. 9 Memphis (West)
Gonzaga took a while to get going on Thursday, but eventually Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren took over, dominating the interior against an overmatched Georgia State squad. Life in the paint won’t be as easy against another lottery-bound 7-footer, Jalen Duren. Memphis has plenty of talent, but facing Gonzaga’s fourth-most efficient defense is sure to cause problems for its only mildly efficient offense (103rd in the country). Memphis is 4-2 ATS against ranked opponents this year, though, so we expect the Tigers to at least keep this one relatively close.
Pick: Gonzaga to WIN but NOT COVER.