Wasn’t long ago that Niko Medved and Mike Young faced off with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line, as Medved’s upstart Furman squad faced Young’s top-seeded Wofford team in the 2015 Southern Conference tournament title game.
Wofford won that one, but not without an incredible effort from the 10th-seeded Paladins, who nearly capped off an amazing tournament run — including an upset of 2-seed Chattanooga, coached by Will Wade, who we’ll get to in a minute — with a trophy, but the Terriers prevailed by three points. Both coaches are in new places, and we’ll talk about both of their teams in this look at the 6-11 first-round matchups in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Which No. 11 seeds are most likely to pull off the first-round upset?
TSN’s MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Predictor tool
11 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Texas, East Region
FanDuel odds: Texas -1, o/u 123
Why this could happen: Let’s start with Mike Young and his 11-seed Virginia Tech team. You see the line there — Texas favored by a single point — and that’s a pretty good indication that this wouldn’t exactly be a monumental upset. Why’s that? Because Young and his coaching staff have the Hokies firing on all cylinders right now; longtime SoCon fans are showing you their not-shocked faces right now. Virginia Tech edged Clemson in the ACC Tournament opener, then beat Notre Dame by seven points, North Carolina by 13 and Duke by 15 in the conference title game. That’s all kinds of impressive. The Hokies are led by Keve Aluma, who started his college career with Young at Wofford, by the way; he’s averaging 15.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Guard Storm Murphy, another Wofford standout who followed Young to Blacksburg, is contributing 8.1 points and 2.9 assists per game.
Texas, on the other hand, is scuffling. The Longhorns have lost three in a row heading into the NCAA Tournament, and even though coach Chris Beard knows how to get his teams playing well in March, it’s easy to see the Hokies winning this one.
MORE: Print your 2022 March Madness bracket here
11 Michigan vs 6 Colorado State, South Region
FanDuel odds: Michigan -1.5, o/u 139.5
Why this could happen: If you hadn’t watched much hoops lately, you might be surprised that Michigan’s the 11 seed and Medved’s Rams are the 6 seed. But that’s a testament to what the former Furman coach has done in Fort Collins; the Rams are 25-5 on the season, with a 14-4 record in a very good Mountain West conference. In the non-conference portion of the schedule, they had double-digit wins over Saint Mary’s (5-seed) and Creighton (9-seed).
Michigan, as you see, is actually favored in this game, despite the fact that the Wolverines are just three games over .500, at 17-14, and haven’t won consecutive games in more than a month. They do have Hunter Dickenson, though, and he’s a nightmare for any opponent when he’s playing well; he’s averaging 18.3 points on 56.3 percent shooting for the season.
EXPERT PICKS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Kentucky) | Fagan (Gonzaga) | Pohnl (Arizona)
11 Iowa State vs. 6 LSU, Midwest Region
FanDuel odds: LSU -4, o/u 127.5
Why this could happen: And now we get to the third former SoCon coach who was part of that 2015 tournament, Will Wade. He’s not coaching this one; after a scandal-ridden time as LSU’s head coach, he was finally fired last week when the program received more damaging scandal news. It was, in the eyes of most everybody in college hoops, about time. Anyway, as it relates to this article, yeah, it seems relevant that the 6-seed team just lost its head coach. At the very least, it’s not idea. LSU is still very talented, though.
As for Iowa State, the Cyclones got off to a 12-0 start to the season but finished just 20-12, getting beaten up in the rugged Big 12 as the season wore on. They finished their season with three consecutive Ls, scoring 36 in a loss to Oklahoma State and 41 in a loss to Texas Tech. So, yeah, even though you might be tempted to write LSU off because of all the turmoil, maybe hold off on that one.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
11 Rutgers/Notre Dame vs 6 Alabama, West Region
FanDuel odds: no line
Why this could happen: It’s hard to predict upset potential quite yet, considering we won’t know who will play Alabama until Wednesday evening. So let’s take a quick look at all three teams, starting with the Crimson Tide. Once upon a time, Alabama seemed destined for a top-three seed, especially after knocking off two of last year’s Final Four teams — Gonzaga and Houston — in back-to-back games in December. Here’s why it’s easy to think Alabama could lose their NCAAt opener, whether it’s Rutgers or Notre Dame: The Crimson Tide lost to both Georgia and Mizzou in SEC play this year. That was literally Georgia’s only SEC victory of the entire season. Yeah.
Notre Dame went 15-5 in the ACC — not as impressive as that mark would have been some years — and upended Kentucky in non-conference play, though the Irish did lose to Saint Mary’s, Illinois, Indiana and Texas A&M. Rutgers struggled in the non-conference portion of the schedule, but checked off several huge wins in the rugged Big Ten, with no stretch bigger than when they won four consecutive games in a row, over No. 13 Michigan State, No. 16 Ohio State, No. 14 Wisconsin and then No. 12 Illinois. Yep, if you’re looking for a reason to pick Rutgers to beat Alabama, I’d start there.
REGION BREAKDOWNS:
West | South | Midwest | East
Which 12 seed is best bet for an upset?
I’d be willing to bet the 11 seeds win at least two games in this year’s tournament.
Ranking them in order: 11 Virginia Tech, 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame (especially if it’s Rutgers), No. 11 Michigan and No. 11 Iowa State.