It’s anyone’s guess how the 2023 MLB Draft will shake out.
Late uncertainty has thrown into question who the Pirates will be taking with the first overall pick, and the only given at this point feels like the Nationals using the second overall pick on a player who won a national championship with LSU in June.
The MLB Draft is never as simple as some of the other drafts. Teams won’t always take the best player available because they will need to save money for later picks. They also won’t be picking for immediate need because many of these picks will be in the minor leagues for several years. They’ll arrive to play for a completely different team than the one in 2023 or even 2024.
That’s why grading draft picks on draft day can be a challenging exercise: it’s all a crapshoot for a few years. But based on past pick values, player analysis and overall draft outlook, it’s still possible to give grades and decide what to make of each team’s pick in the early stages of the draft.
MORE: Watch the 2023 MLB Draft live with Fubo in the U.S. (free trial)
Sporting News will try to do exactly that with draft-day grades for each first-round selection. Follow below for complete results.
MLB DRAFT: SN’s mock draft | Top 100 big board
MLB Draft grades 2023: Live picks, analysis for Round 1
Round 1
1. Pittsburgh Pirates — Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
There’s no question about it: Paul Skenes is as good as it gets. He’s been compared to Stephen Strasburg among the most highly touted pitching prospects of all time. The LSU right-hander could pitch in the bullpen right now for the Pirates, and many expect he will be on a similar timeline to Strasburg in pitching out of Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as 2024. This is a generational talent, who can be an ace in the big leagues very soon.
MORE: Why Pirates took Skenes over Crews at 1-1
2. Washington Nationals — Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
Signing bonus demands likely dropped Dylan Crews from going first overall to second, and the Nationals get to benefit from Pittsburgh’s bonus pool strategy. Crews is the most refined collegiate hitter the draft has seen in years, with many believing he has what it takes to be an impact top- or middle-of-the-order bat next year. His approach is incredibly advanced (71 walks to 46 strikeouts in 2023), and he has plenty of raw power (18 home runs). Crews should be able to stick in center, and might be in Washington next year. The Nationals have had two MVP-caliber outfielders recently in Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Crews is next in line.
3. Detroit Tigers — Max Clark, OF, Franklin High (Ind.)
This is the first pick that is a bit of a shocker. Detroit was expected to be headed toward Wyatt Langford if Skenes and Crews were off the board. But Max Clark is clearly worthy of going this high. Of the top five draft prospects, he is the fastest and is the easiest lock to stay in center. He has an advanced hit tool for a prep bat, and he could develop more power as he grows into his 6-1, 190-pound frame. Drafting high school hitters always carries a degree of risk, and Langford would have been a much safer pick, but this could be a major boom down the line.
MORE: Everything to know about Max Clark
4. Texas Rangers — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
The Rangers might have been shocked to hear that Langford was available at No. 4. He was a late favorite to go No. 1 overall, and most mocks had him going no lower than third to the Tigers. But here he is, and Texas jumps on the chance to draft him. Langford might have the most offensive upside of any collegiate hitter, with tons of raw power and the best power/speed combination of any player in the draft. He might not be a long-term center fielder, but if he moves to a corner and can focus on the bat, he could be a middle-of-the-order hitter as early as late 2024.
5. Minnesota Twins — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High (N.C.)
There was some late speculation Minnesota might go to the college route rather than take one of the clear top-five talents. The Twins have put that to rest and taken the best player available. Jenkins is one of the most refined hitters in the high school class, and he has a ton of raw power. The debate between him and Clark as the top high school player came down to whether you wanted the better hitter (Jenkins) or the more well-rounded player. Jenkins will likely move to a corner outfield spot, but he should be a future middle-of-the-order hitter.
6. Oakland Athletics — Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
There was no doubt about who the top five players in the 2023 MLB Draft class were, and if they went in the top five picks, there would be plenty of intrigue about No. 6. Jacob Wilson is a bit of an unexpected selection. Wilson has an incredibly advanced hit tool (he struck out just six times in 2023 with a .411 batting average), but he also doesn’t have much power (six home runs) and is a bit of an average runner (eight steals). He’s a safe bet to reach the majors, but the A’s will have to get him to tap into his power for him to be a major impact talent.
7. Cincinnati Reds — Rhett Lowder, SP, Wake Forest
There is not a more advanced pitcher in the draft than Rhett Lowder. The advanced pitching lab at Wake Forest helped develop him into an ace with exceptional command, the best changeup in the class and enough velocity to get past big leaguers. The Reds are seeing a rebuild start to come to fruition, with many of their prospects shining in the majors this year. Lowder can join them in short order, and might be the second pitcher in this class to reach the pros behind Skenes.
MORE: Rhett Lowder scouting report
8. Kansas City Royals — Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High (Tex.)
High school catchers aren’t as risky as prep pitchers, but they’re close. Only five of 18 first-round, high school catchers since 2010 have reached the majors, and just two have positive bWAR. Blake Mitchell might be worth the gamble, however, as he has such an advanced bat for a high school player, and he has the athleticism — and more than enough arm strength — to stay behind the plate. The Royals developed second-round prep catcher MJ Melendez well, however, so there is certainly reason to believe they could be just the system to take a high school backstop.
9. Colorado Rockies — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
This has the chance to be a huge win for the Rockies. There’s also some risk. Chase Dollander looked like a 1-1 candidate after a dominant sophomore year at Tennessee, but his slider and control regressed in his junior season. If the Rockies can get him back to where he was, he’s exactly the type of pitcher that can succeed in Coors Field, with a high-velocity fastball and a slider that should survive the altitude. The Rockies have struggled with some high-upside pitchers in the past, but they also did well with Jon Gray, a very comparable pick by arsenal and polish.
10. Miami Marlins — Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High (Ore.)
The Marlins got the best prep pitcher in the draft, and there’s plenty of reasons to believe it’ll work. He’s hit triple-digits on his fastball and has an electric slider that have helped give him separation from the rest of the prep pitchers in this class. His command is advanced for his age, and he has a repeatable delivery, helping to limit the risk. Why a B? Prep pitchers are an extremely risky demographic to gamble on this early in the draft, so, as with Mitchell, this is more about the history than the player.
11. Los Angeles Angels — Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
If the Angels’ goal is to get players to the big leagues fast, a la Zach Neto and Ben Joyce, this is a reasonable pick. Nolan Schanuel has an advanced hit tool and has started to show more power, a pivotal step for a first base/corner outfield prospect. Like Wilson, he’s a good bet to reach the majors because of the bat-to-ball skills and his approach. But if he’s limited to first, he’ll need to develop even more power to justify such an early selection.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford
The Diamondbacks are drafting a hitter ready to face big league pitching. Tommy Troy rarely looked overmatched despite facing plenty of top competition during Stanford’s run to the College World Series. He’s one of the best pure hitters in the college ranks, and adds more raw power than several other hitters with a comparable hit tool. He’s likely going to be handling the hot corner long-term, but Arizona could try him at short or second. There are some slightly better prospects available, but Troy is a standout hitter who should justify the selection.
13. Chicago Cubs — Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland
Some of the better prospects than Troy? One of them is Matt Shaw. He walked more than he struck out in 2023 while hitting .341 and he’s developed plenty of power that should make him an annual 20-plus homer threat. Add to that his speed (he went 18-for-19 on steals), and there’s little he can’t do on the offensive side. His only shortcomings are on defense, where he’s likely limited to second, but if he hits the way many expect, this is a tremendous pick at No. 13.
14. Boston Red Sox — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
No matter where Kyle Teel landed, that pick was guaranteed to receive an A. There was some thought that he could go in the top five, and he was viewed as a near-lock to go in the top 10. The Red Sox stop his slide at No. 14, and get a catcher with an incredibly advanced bat and the athleticism needed to stay behind the plate. He might not be a Gold Glover, and there’s a chance he takes the Henry Davis development route with some time in the outfield, but that bat will play anywhere.
MORE: Scouting report on Virginia’s slugging catcher
15. Chicago White Sox — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi
Another player like Shaw and Teel where regardless of spot, they would be receiving an A, Jacob Gonzalez had been talked about as another potential top-five pick before sliding all the way to No. 15. It’s a well-rounded profile, with a bat that will hit for average and power and the ability to stay at shortstop. He might not have any tools that jump off the page, but he also has no major flaws in his profile, making him a very safe prospect at No. 15.
16. San Francisco Giants — Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison High (Va.)
This pairing has been talked about quite a lot, and though we have Bryce Eldridge down at No. 22 on our big board, this feels like a perfect fit. The Giants took UConn’s Reggie Crawford last year with the intention of developing him as a two-way player, and they’re clearly willing to roll the dice on another one this year. The 6-7, left-handed swinging first baseman has a ton of raw power at the plate and he hits the mid-90s with his fastball with a solid slider. There’s a real chance the “American Ohtani” can pull off the two-way feat, and the Giants drafting him gives him a much better chance at doing so.
MORE: Who is Bryce Eldridge?
17. Baltimore Orioles — Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
The Orioles are already one of the most exciting teams in baseball. Enrique Bradfield Jr. is only going to add to that. The Vanderbilt outfielder is an old-school, leadoff hitter profile. He doesn’t have a lot of power, but he has an incredible contact rate and is dangerous at laying down bunts for hits. The speed is top of the charts, which will keep him in center field where he profiles as an elite defender. In a time when an emphasis is being put on stolen bases, Bradfield has the chance to be a dynamic asset for Baltimore.
18. Milwaukee Brewers — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
The run on As handed out continues with Milwaukee. Brock Wilken has the most raw power of any college hitter in the draft, and while there were some questions about his hit tool coming into the year, he did a lot to resolve those concerns by cutting down his strikeouts from 71 in 2022 to 58 in 2023 (to go along with 69 walks). Even if Wilken has to move across the diamond to first base, this is a loud bat that should hit enough at any position and give the Brewers a slugger with middle-of-the-order upside.
19. Tampa Bay Rays — Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU
The last college slider has finally landed. Brayden Taylor was thought to be a possible top-10 pick, and yet, he slid all the way down to 19. Taylor had a slow start to the 2023 season, but picked it up in the second half and was a major threat for the College World Series-bound Horned Frogs. He should have no problem staying at third base, and the bat will be an asset for the Rays. His approach is incredibly advanced, and if he continues the power development he showed in 2023, he’ll be an impact bat very quickly.
20. Toronto Blue Jays — Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Fla.)
Arjun Nimmala was seventh on our big board, behind only the clear top five and Lowder. He’s young for his age (17) and he’s already shown himself to be a power-hitting threat, with room to grow in his 6-1, 170-pound frame. Most believe he’ll stick at shortstop, and his rocket arm should at least ensure he stays on the left side of the infield. Because he’s such a raw talent, the hit tool has some ways to come along, but the upside is the highest of any player left on the board at this point.
MORE: Meet top MLB Draft prospect from India who traded cricket for baseball
21. St. Louis Cardinals — Chase Davis, OF, Arizona
The Cardinals are shooting for the stars with their first pick in the draft. Chase Davis is a tooled-up prospect, with an outstanding combination of power and speed, a rocket arm and the ability to be a plus defender in center or a corner spot. There are questions about his hit tool, but Davis appeared to show improvement in 2023, which is what has helped him make the leap up from a gamble in the second round to a gamble in the first.
22. Seattle Mariners — Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High (Oh.)
Seattle has three picks in the first 30 selections, which means it needs to be careful with bonus pool money. It was expected to go the college route to sign an under-slot deal in the first round and save money for later picks, but just about every college batter projected for the first round is gone. Colt Emerson is certainly not a reach at this point — his hit tool is advanced for prep hitters and there’s some pop in his left-handed swing — but if they wanted to go the prep route at No. 22, there were a few better options left like Colin Houck and Kevin McGonigle.
23. Cleveland Guardians — Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High (Calif.)
The good news: Ralphy Velazquez is going to hit. He has a ton of raw power, among the most in the prep ranks, and his approach should help him continue to hit through the minors and get to that power in games. The bad? Again, high school catchers are risky demographics, and there are major questions about his defensive profile. He might not be athletic enough to stick behind the dish, though his arm is enough to slow the running game if he does handle catching duties. He could be a major steal this late in the draft if he improves enough defensively to stay at catcher. A move off the position, however, would put a lot of pressure on his bat.
24. Atlanta Braves — Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida
This is a perfect pairing. The Braves have excelled at developing pitchers in recent years, and Hurston Waldrep is a pitcher in need of some development. The raw stuff is nearly unhittable. He hits triple-digits with the fastball with a filthy splitter and a wipeout slider. Waldrep was very inconsistent during the season, including a six-walk performance against LSU in the College World Series, but if the Braves work with him to figure out how to harness that arsenal, they’ve got a pitcher with the second-best stuff in this class.
25. San Diego Padres — Dillon Head, OF, Homewood Flossmoor High (Ill.)
A.J. Preller continues to swing for the fences in the draft. Dillon Head is a very athletic center fielder with top-of-the-scale speed and the ability to play well above-average defense in center and a solid hit tool. There’s some risk to the profile because he doesn’t hit for a ton of power at the moment, but he could potentially unlock some more in the right system. It’s certainly a gamble, but one that could pay off big for the Padres.
26. New York Yankees — George Lombard Jr., SS, Gulliver Prep (Fla.)
It’s easy to see the power upside in the bat of George Lombard Jr. The 6-3, 190-pound shortstop might need to move off the position, but the reason he’s going in the first round is the bat. The first thing that stands out is that thunderous pop, which comes from an easy swing. He comes with a bit of swing-and-miss issues, but he’s grown up around the game (his dad, George Lombard played for Atlanta), and there are enough reasons to believe he can make the proper adjustments in pro ball.
27. Philadelphia Phillies — Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell High (Fla.)
Aidan Miller has slid down draft boards a bit, which could be in part due to the fact that he’s older for his class (19). But the Phillies halt the wait, and pick him 27th overall. Miller might be one of the best power-hitting prep bats in the class. He has struggled with inside pitches and his swing is unconventional, but between his power and his ability to play a solid third base, there’s a lot to like about this pick.
28. Houston Astros — Brice Matthews, SS, Nebraska
This is by far the biggest reach of the draft so far. Brice Matthews has plenty of power in his bat, and he is a fast baserunner, giving him clear 20/20 potential. But the concern with Matthews is that his hit tool still requires some development, and he doesn’t have the luxury of time like many of the prep bats with hit tool concerns. He also is likely to have to move off shortstop in the pros, giving him an uncertain defensive future. The upside is certainly tantalizing, but he likely could have been drafted much lower.
Prospect promotion incentive picks
29. Seattle Mariners — Jonny Farmelo, OF, Westfield High (Va.)
The Mariners double up on high school hitters, which could immediately bring up some signability concerns given the high asking prices for prep players this early. But Jonny Farmelo is another solid gamble for the Mariners if they can sign him. He has a lightning fast bat with the potential to add some power to his 6-2, 205-pound frame, though there are some concerns over his swing mechanics. Farmelo is a fast runner with the ability to stick at center. The Mariners have done well developing hitters like Emerson and Farmelo in the past, and they’re clearly trying to go to their strengths.
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Seattle Mariners — Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian High (Ga.)
Going three straight high school hitters this early is a bold strategy. That’s the biggest reason for the C+ grade here. Getting all those guys to avoid going to college requires a lot of bonus pool money, and prep hitters inherently always come with more risk than college players. Tai Peete is a serious boom-or-bust prospect type. He has loud power and combines his lightning fast swing with blazing speed and a cannon arm. The question around Peete will be whether his approach can be improved enough to allow him to get to those tools in games.
31. Tampa Bay Rays — Adrian Santana, SS, Doral Academy (Fla.)
Like Peete, Adrian Santana is a 17-year-old shortstop with high upside and high risk. He’s one of the fastest players in the draft and has a cannon arm at short with a glove that will have no issues sticking at short. But he is an under-sized player (5-11, 155 pounds) without much thump in his bat, and some questions about his ability to make consistent enough contact. That puts a ton of pressure on his glove to be truly elite, and even then, if he can’t hit enough, the glove won’t carry him to the majors.
32. New York Mets — Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High (Ga.)
Colin Houck was the No. 2 prep shortstop on our big board, and his slide could have signaled a strong commitment to Mississippi State. Instead, it might’ve just been that he had an over-slot deal to fall to the Mets at No. 32. New York is getting a tremendous talent with the best all-around hitter among the prep shortstops based around his incredible bat speed. Even if Houck moves off short, his plus arm and his bat will be enough for him to be an impact talent at third.
33. Milwaukee Brewers — Josh Knoth, RHP, Patchogue-Medford (N.Y.)
This is getting into the range where it’s worth the risk drafting prep pitchers. But Josh Knoth is an interesting gamble at this point. He’s not an imposing pitcher (6-1, 190 pounds) and doesn’t have the elite velocity of some of the other prep arms still on the board, though it can reach 96. His curveball is one of the better ones in the prep ranks, but the changeup has a long way to go and his control still needs some improving.
34. Minnesota Twins — Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian High (Fla.)
Now Charlee Soto is the type of gamble you take at this range. He’s a perfect fit for the model-heavy Twins given his age (17) and size (6-5, 197 pounds), and the stuff is electric. He hits the upper-90s with the heater and boasts a plus slider and plus changeup, giving him a well-rounded repertoire for a high school pitcher. Soto also commands the pitches well, and has an easy delivery scouts love.
35. Miami Marlins — Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy (Mass.)
Another pitcher who slid down the board a bit, Thomas White is an exciting southpaw to dream on. White is the clear top high school left-handed pitcher in the draft, running a fastball up to 97 mph with a filthy curveball in the upper-70s and a changeup that is at least an average third offering for him. He has an easier delivery than one would expect from a 6-5, 210-pound lefty, but it still leads to some command and control issues. There’s always risk with prep pitchers, but like with Soto, it’s a decent wager in the comp round.
36. Los Angeles Dodgers
37. Detroit Tigers
38. Cincinnati Reds
39. Oakland Athletics