Happy Hump Day, NBA hoops fans and bettors! Welcome to the lucky seventh edition of NBA Prop-A-Shot, the Sporting News’ weekly live betting blog that brings you all the best wagering advice before, during, and after the biggest games of the Wednesday night slate. Today we will be covering two marquee games: Mavericks vs. Wolves in Minnesota and Nuggets vs. Thunder in Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. ET).
Talk about an abundance of star power and storylines. We’ve got multiple MVP candidates, including Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We have the three top seeds in the Western Conference (and four of the West’s top seven). And, of course, we have a surplus of high-value betting opportunities.
Let’s go into a little more detail about how all this works:
- On Wednesday morning and throughout the day, we share our top player prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the marquee games of the night.
- During the live window, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines or surprising developments in the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the night.
Seven weeks into our Prop-A-Shot series, our Wednesday best bets have gone 57-40. That’s a .588 winning percentage, and a ton of our success over the past two weeks has taken place during the live window.
Let’s get to our look-ahead picks for the Wednesday night slate, which we will update as odds change and more player props get added. Remember to check back throughout the day, and then join us this evening at 8:00 p.m. ET for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude.
Live updates, betting advice
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Thunder vs. Nuggets — 8:00 p.m. ET
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Wolves vs. Mavericks — 8:00 p.m. ET
All times posted are p.m. ET. All odds, bets, and props are from BetMGM, an authorized partner of the NBA.
7:07 p.m.: With a little over an hour left until the 8:00 p.m. games tip, the Thunder have bumped up to -6.5 favorites over the visiting, Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets and the Wolves are massive -13.5 favorites against the Mavericks sans Luka Doncic. We like both underdogs with the points, as OKC is also missing a key cog in its rotation (Rising Star Jalen Williams) and we don’t expect the Mavs to get completely steamrolled by Minnesota. If we had to pick one of the undies to cover, though, we would lean toward Denver +6.5. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. can turn it up offensively, Aaron Gordon and DeAndre Jordan should get physical against the younger, smaller Thunder front court, and the Nuggets should stay in it with smart team basketball on both sides of the floor.
7:20: We’ve already pinpointed some over/under player props we like in terms of value. Since BetMGM has juiced up some OVER bets, we’re leaning toward a couple UNDER bets that fall in line with the game narrative we’re expecting. Our favorite is Grant Williams UNDER 4.5 rebounds (-125), as he’s going to get eaten alive down by Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns down low. We also like Mike Conley Jr. UNDER 10.5 points (-125), as the veteran has been banged up lately and he probably won’t need to do much scoring for the Wolves to get out to a comfortable lead. Lastly, we’ll lock in Naz Reid OVER 9.5 points (-120), since he will probably get significant run against an undermanned Mavs squad.
7:25: With Jalen “JDub” Williams out for OKC, we expect Lu Dort to get more run. And with Jokic out for the Nuggets, Denver might be a little more sloppy with the ball than usual. Therefore, we’re going for value and betting Dort OVER 0.5 steals (-110). Another value bet we like is backup Nuggets point guard Reggie Jackson OVER 1.5 three-pointers (+150), as he always sees higher usage with Jokic sidelined. We’re intrigued by Michael Porter Jr. OVER 1.5 turnovers (+115), as he sometimes makes boneheaded decisions and the scrappy Thunder force the most turnovers in the NBA (15.9 per game).
8:15: Loving the energy and aggressiveness we’re seeing from Josh Green through four minutes. His scoring OVER is at 13.5 points (-130). We’re going for it.
8:17: Jamal Murray’s jumper has looked silky early. He already has one trey and he had another triple rattle in and out. Michael Porter Jr., meanwhile, has looked pretty bad with his J. Murray’s points over/under is at 28.5 (-140), something we would probably pull the trigger on considering this game could go down to the wire and there’s nobody as competitive as Murray against scrappy defensive teams.
8:19: It’s 12-9 Wolves at the halfway point of the 1st quarter in Minnesota. The live over/under has dipped to 214.5. Even without Doncic and Irving on the floor, the Mavs can shoot better than the 0-of-5 from deep they’ve managed through half a frame. Both these teams are shooting 41.7 percent from the floor. Smash the OVER.
8:35: We’ve got a couple low-scoring contests for a change! After one frame, the Wolves lead the Mavs 24-21 and the Nuggets lead the Thunder 28-19. Minnesota and Dallas combined to hit just 17-of-43 shots, and the refs swallowed their whistles through a lot of contact. Scoring will jump up there… we would smash the OVER on the 208.5 total. As for the Nuggets-Thunder, what did we tell you? These Nugs have been battle-tested without Joker many times, and they don’t let their guard down against elite opponents. That said, Denver hit 6-of-13 three-point attempts and OKC shot just 28 percent in the frame, so there might be some value with the Thunder if their spread goes up to the +5.5 range (they’re +2.5 now).
8:45: Our guy Josh Green has looked solid! He’s already up to 11 points, and the Mavs have battled back to tie this game at 30 with eight minutes left in the second quarter. Green is the perfect example of a player you never bet before a game. He’s so streaky that you can only ever back him if he looks on early. We’re happy we smashed his 13.5-point live OVER earlier.
8:48: Chet Holmgren is friggin’ everywhere out there against the Nuggets. He had three blocks in the first six minutes of the game and he’s up to four now. We’re kicking ourselves for avoiding his blocks OVER of 2.5 because it was juiced up to -170.
9:15: At halftime, the Nuggets have a 51-47 lead on the Thunder and the Wolves have a 52-48 lead over the Mavericks. Close, low-scoring games… we don’t hate it! Both these games are looking at 207.5-point over/unders. We’re not touching those totals either way, as the pace and shooting could pick up or it could remain stagnant with just as many bricks. We are interested in the Mavs +9.5, though, as Dallas is scrappy and Minnesota has struggled at times in the second halves of games this season.
9:29: We just locked in a live bet on the Nuggets -0.5 (-120). The Thunder look lackadaisical on both sides of the floor and Denver looks confident out of intermission. Michael Malone has his team more ready for this game and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can’t hit the water if he fell out of a boat (5-of-14). The Nugs are also shooting lights-out from outside (11-of-25) but they’re just 10-of-36 from inside the arc. If they start hitting some twos, it’s nuh-night time in OKC.
9:36: A little over halfway through the third quarter, the Wolves are up 69-59 over the Mavericks, who seem to be losing steam rapidly. Loving the passing we’re seeing from Ant and KAT tonight.
9:37: Of course, now that I bailed on OKC, the Nuggets let the Thunder back in the game. OKC’s ears must have been ringing.
9:40: Game of runs! Denver just went on a 7-0 run against OKC, while Dallas trimmed its deficit in Minnesota to 72-67. It’s so hard to trust teams with leads in this league.
9:47: What was I just saying!? Denver just let OKC score seven straight and finish the third quarter on a 10-2 run, going from down 70-63 with just a couple minutes left in the frame to up 73-72 at the start of the fourth.
9:53: The Wolves close out the third quarter up 83-70 over the Mavericks. Not looking good for Dallas.
10:00: The refs smoked Jamal Murray on a gross and-one call that gave OKC a huge momentum swing. It was 73-72 OKC when that bad whistle blew. Just a couple minutes later, it’s 83-72.
10:05: We’re nearing the home stretch and both Dallas (down 88-70) and Denver (down 87-74) are both looking halfway down the river without a paddle.
10:12: Down to 96-93 OKC with the Nuggets battling out there! 2:02 left.
10:17: Wild game. Thunder lead down to 98-97 with 52.6 seconds left.
10:18: Chet Holmgren just hit a stone-cold dagger for three after Josh Giddey chased down a clutch offensive rebound. OKC now leads 101-97 with just 22 ticks left. This will be a brutal bad beat for us.
10:20: Five second call on Denver. Reggie Jackson absolutely blows any chance at a comeback.
10:26: As Tony Soprano once said, “Frankly I’m depressed and ashamed.” OKC wins 105-100. We saw a second-chance three-pointer surrendered, a five-second violation, and a lane violation from Denver. WOW.
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Thunder vs. Nuggets — 8:00 p.m. ET
SGA holds the second-shortest MVP odds on BetMGM (+350), trailing only the aforementioned Jokic (+100). He has the most 30-point performances (35) and the most 20-point performances (65) in the NBA this season. And now that his running mate Jalen Williams twisted his ankle, the All-NBA guard might see an uptick in usage in this massive divisional game.
Look, Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting and scoring a ton and it’s translating to monumental team success. OKC has spent a good deal of this season atop the Western Conference rankings, and the Thunder have already defeated the defending champions twice this season.
A victory in Denver tonight means Mark Daigneault’s squad would own a tiebreaker over Joker and company, and a strong performance by SGA would almost assuredly move him even closer to Jokic in the MVP odds. Bet on the OVER with confidence.
MORE SGA: Has the young OKC star elevated from MVP sleeper to best bet?
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Mavericks at Wolves — 8:00 p.m. ET
With elite scorer Luka Doncic out with a right ankle sprain and Kyrie Irving continuing to nurse a thumb injury, Hardaway Jr. becomes the de facto go-to scorer in Dallas as the Mavs enter the Wolves’ den. Minnesota has the best record in the Western Conference, so expectations will be low but Hardaway’s shot count should be very, very high.
As a historian of the game, I can say with certainty that the game has never seen anything like Doncic. The Slovenian star has poured in a jaw-dropping 146 points across the Mavericks’ past three games, highlighted by a 73-point performance in Atlanta on Friday. The wildest part: he did it in just 33 field-goal attempts, and also had 14 assists in the game. We’ve never seen a 73-point night with fewer shots or as many dimes.
Doncic’s impact is impossible to measure, and even more impossible to replace. But you won’t have to ask Hardaway twice to try. Over the past six games that Luka has missed, Hardaway has averaged 27.3 points per game. He poured in 32 points in two of those six games, and exploded for 41 most recently on Jan. 15. He’s a dead-eye shooter that always seems to get hotter the more shots he takes.
Doncic had averaged 36 PPG over the Mavs’ past two tilts with Minnesota, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. This could be an absolute bloodbath, but the one thing we aren’t worried about for Dallas is Hardaway’s ability to take a ton of shots and hit the OVER for us.
MORE: Breaking down the rivalry between Luka Doncic and Devin Booker
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Nuggets at Thunder — 8:00 p.m. ET
We were all excited to bet Nikola Jokic’s triple-double prop as a best bet, as he came through with a triple-dub after we made the same pick in our Monday column (all said, he had 25 points, 16 rebounds, 12 assists against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks). However, the Serbian sensation and BetMGM odds-on leader to win MVP (+100) will sit out tonight’s game in OKC with lower back pain.
Denver commands the West’s No. 2 seed by just a half-game over OKC, which sits one game flat behind the Wolves for the top spot. The division has never been closer — the Nugs, Wolves, and Thunder are all +250 or shorter on BetMGM to win the Northwest division. Needless to say, this remains a very important game for Denver with or without the Joker running wild. That’s why we like Gordon as the “next man up” to come through for the defending champions.
Rookie of the Year candidate Chet Holmgren has been a force down low, but he will likely have to tangle with veteran center DeAndre Jordan most of the evening. And with rising Thunder star Jalen Williams nursing an ankle injury, OKC is short-handed as well. Any Thunder player who guards Gordon will be giving up size and strength to him, so we like AG to ball out against the young gunners from the Midwest.
Be sure to check in throughout the day for more props, updated lines, and up-to-the-minute news and storylines as they break. And join us from 8:00 p.m. ET until the end of the Spurs-Thunder game. We’ll be dropping live betting advice all night, looking to help you boost your bankroll and surge toward the weekend in style.