NFL fans and bettors have witnessed a ton of unpredictable stuff through two weeks, including crippling injuries to superstars, 0-2 starts from perennially-strong teams, and the emergence of multiple players who were largely unknown prior to this season. Through all the volatility and the many ups and downs, our weekly best bets column has thrived. Today we will look to continue our positive momentum and make you some more cash with our favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets.
We’ve featured 25 bets in this column in the two weeks since the NFL kicked off — and 15 of those bets have hit. Our 15-9-1 record would translate to a net profit of well over $2,500 if you wagered $100 on each bet. That’s quite the strong start to a season — and now that we have a bigger sample size to work with, we’re ready to take our betting success to the next level.
Your goal is to win money, and our top priority is to help you achieve that goal. That’s why we put in a ton of statistical research, attack all the angles, uncover all the betting trends, and pinpoint value across BetMGM, SuperDraft, FanDuel, and various other sports betting sites each week.
Don’t worry — we will be holding ourselves accountable every step of the way. Each Friday, we will reveal our win-loss record for the previous week, as well as our updated record on the season. We already mentioned that we have 15 hits and one push out of our 25 bets, and we’re as confident as ever in our best bets for Week 3.
MORE NFL WEEK 3 PICKS: ATS | Moneyline
Sports betting doesn’t need to be considered ‘gambling.’ With the right mindset, strategies, and preparedness, it becomes far less of a gamble and much more of an investment. That’s why we don’t just call this a hobby of ours — rather, it’s a second job that allows us to punch in while we’re sitting on our couch.
This weekend’s slate features a bunch of great games and a plethora of lucrative opportunities for bettors. So, let’s go get that money and reveal our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and SuperDraft player prop bets for Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 3: Against the spread
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Titans (+3.5) vs. Browns
It seems odd to me that Tennessee would be getting over a field goal at home against a Cleveland team that has struggled mightily on offense and just lost Nick Chubb for the season. But, we’ll take it!
The Titans should be able to get DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks going this weekend, considering George Pickens just busted loose for 127 yards and a score against the Browns despite Kenny Pickett seeing Myles Garrett-like ghosts in the pocket.
We also think Derrick Henry should be able to get something going, even if the majority of his chunk-yardage comes on screens and short dump-offs. Jaylen Warren amassed 66 yards through the air against Cleveland on Monday Night Football, something Mike Vrabel’s squad will likely look to duplicate this weekend.
But the Titans defense should be the ultimate factor in this game. While Ryan Tannehill has not looked great under center for Tennessee, Deshaun Watson has looked even worse for the Browns. And with Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons barreling toward him with no Nick Chubb to bail him out, it could be a long day in Nashville for the former Pro Bowler.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Titans 24, Browns 20
Lions -2.5 vs. Falcons (-140)
As we mentioned in our Lions-Falcons betting preview, we like the Lions -3 but we love them at -2.5 for a little extra juice. Detroit’s passing game has been as good as advertised, with Jared Goff already making highlight-reel passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds. And this could be the week that rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs breaks out and shows his insane burst in the open field.
Atlanta’s defense has improved mightily over the past couple of seasons, with some key additions to its secondary making this a legitimate NFC South contender. But this unit still has some things to tighten up, like avoiding costly penalties in late-game drives. This game marks the Falcons’ first road test of the season, a far more daunting challenge than its first two home games against the Panthers and Packers.
And ultimately, we don’t trust Desmond Ridder to pull off a Ford Field upset in his seventh career start. The second-year QB has never thrown a touchdown on the road, where his QB rating is 73.8 compared to 96.6 at home. We’re giving the Dirty Birds a lot of respect buying a half-point for the Lions, but we won’t give them the ultimate respect and bet on them to stun a good team in enemy territory — they have to show us something first.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lions 23, Falcons 20
Other Week 3 spreads we like: Dolphins -6.5 vs. Broncos; Cowboys -12.5 at Cardinals, Buccaneers (+5) vs. Eagles
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 3
Patriots (-140) at Jets
Bill Belichick is single, his team is 0-2 for the first time since 2000, and he gets to face a Jets team that he has owned throughout his coaching career. And I mean owned — the Patriots are 37-11 against Gang Green during Belichick’s tenure in New England.
The Pats held their own at home against arguably the best teams in each conference, Jalen Hurts and the NFC-champion Eagles and Tua Tagovailoa and the high-flying Dolphins. Mac Jones and his island of misfit wide receivers had a chance to tie or win at the end of both games, but fell just a bit short each time.
Now this Patriots defense has a chance to punch a feeble Zach Wilson in the mouth and take the Jets by storm for its first victory — and we think that’s exactly what will happen. It probably won’t be all that pretty, but as a grandfather might say “a win’s a win.”
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Patriots 17, Steelers 16
Chargers (-108) at Vikings
These teams are both 0-2, hence the short odds on both sides. But let’s face it: Both these defenses stink, while the Chargers offense has been far superior than the Vikings. Los Angeles nearly stopped Tua Time in Week 1 — it took 200-plus heroic yards from Tyreek Hill for the Fins to prevail — and the Bolts lost by just three against a tough Titans D last week.
All said, Justin Herbert and company have racked up 60 points and 775 total yards — and that’s without Austin Ekeler in Week 2. Even if Ekeler isn’t on the field this week, we still like Joshua Kelley over Alexander Mattison and the woeful Vikings running game.
And although Los Angeles doesn’t have modern-day receiving GOAT Justin Jefferson like Kirk Cousins and the Vikings do, it does have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams against a suspect Minnesota secondary. We’ve got the Bolts prevailing in one of the more high-scoring affairs of the young season.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Chargers 30, Vikings 28
Other Week 3 moneylines we like: Rams (+114) at Bengals, Lions (-166) vs. Falcons
Best NFL over/under bets Week 3
Buccaneers OVER 20.5 vs. Eagles (+102)
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have looked awesome through two weeks, leading many to believe Mayfield is the 2023 version of Geno Smith and the Seahawks last year. The early-season redemptive run has been made possible by the veteran’s strong connection with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, with a little of running back Rachaad White and tight end Cade Otton sprinkled in. The Bucs are fun to watch again, and they’re being underestimated by BetMGM and the books on Monday Night Football this week.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are the most unconvincing 2-0 team in the NFL. Jalen Hurts has looked mediocre at best in the pocket, Philly’s red-zone offense has relied heavily on Hurts’ tush-push or bum-scrum or two-cheek sneak or whatever you maniacs want to call this cheat-code of a goal-line play. If the Buccaneers defense surprises primetime audiences the way they have shocked the rest of us through two weeks, the Bucs might suddenly start garnering some attention in the playoff and Super Bowl betting markets.
And if the Eagles defense keeps underwhelming, Mayfield could enter the early-season MVP discussion. We knew the Philadelphia front-seven would be significantly worse with the losses of Javon Hargrave and T.J. Edwards — and losing Nakobe Dean to the IR because of a foot injury hasn’t helped matters. But the Eagles’ secondary has been the biggest issue, which is a bad problem to have going into Tampa Bay to face a Bucs passing game averaging 243 air yards per game. Bet the Bucs OVER here and enjoy the plus odds.
Other Week 3 over/unders we like: Chargers-Vikings OVER 54, Seahawks OVER 23.5 vs. Panthers
MORE BETTING:
Survivor Pool Picks | Cowboys-Cardinals | Lions-Falcons | Steelers-Raiders
Best NFL player prop bets Week 3
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Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars vs. Texans — OVER 68.5 rushing yards
Etienne is my Sloan-cold lock of the week, with the Jaguars looking for a strong bounce-back after an abysmal Week 2 showing against the reigning-champion Chiefs. The Colts’ Zack Moss just collected 88 rushing yards on 18 carries against Houston last week, so ETN should be able to get to 69 before the third frame ends.
It was a Week 5 meeting with these Texans last year that marked Etienne’s breakout, with the young back rushing 10 times for 71 yards and adding 43 yards through the air. In Jacksonville’s 13 games between Weeks 5 and 17, he finished with 69 rushing yards a whopping eight times. He’ll do it again this week against a Houston team that’s already been outscored 56-29 through two games.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys — OVER 21 completions AND OVER 231.5 passing yards
I’m all-in on Prescott this week, as he finally gets a chance to truly show off his arm against a feeble Cardinals defense. He had terrible weather conditions in Week 1 against the Giants, who got whooped so hard by Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ defense that Dallas didn’t even need Dak. And then he went against a tough Sauce Gardner-led Jets defense in Week 2.
Still, Prescott’s performance against Gang Green gives us plenty of reason for optimism. All said, he completed 31-of-38 passes for 255 yards and two TDs. That’s a Pro Bowl line against PFF’s No. 1 ranked secondary. Now he draws an Arizona secondary that has surrendered 22.5 completions and 261.5 air yards per game? Yeah, we’re buying. We want all that desert smoke, SuperDraft!
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders vs. Steelers — OVER 91.5 rushing + receiving yards
Josh Jacobs has endured a tough start to the decision, with just 46 total rushing yards through two games. The reigning rushing champ has been stifled by two difficult defenses on the road, the Broncos in Week 1 and Bills in Week 2. Everything changes for Jacobs this week, though, with the Steelers’ abysmal run D heading into Vegas for the Raiders’ home-opener.
Through two weeks, Pittsburgh has surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL to RBs (166.5 per game). And that’s despite Nick Chubb going down early in the Monday Night Football game against the Browns! The Steelers have also allowed 21 receiving yards per game to RBs, which pushes their total weekly RB yield to 187.5 yards. Those numbers should have Jacobs’ fantasy owners and prop-betting investors licking their chops.
Considering Jacobs bested 91.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in 12 of 17 games last year — and he saw the field for 80 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in their close Week 1 win over Denver — I love the OVER here. The air yards have been there for him — 74 yards in two weeks. If he puts up those 37 receiving yards this week, all he will need is 55 ground yards.