It is not hard to understand why Lions head coach Dan Campbell is the betting favorite to win Coach of the Year. For the first time in years, the Lions are considered competitive, and he has played an essential role in Detroit’s turnaround.
But Campbell is not the only NFL head coach who has done a stellar and potentially award-winning job this year. Several have battled through adversity to remain in the postseason conversation.
Other than Dan Campbell, bettors should seriously consider betting on the Coach of the Year odds of these three: DeMeco Ryans, Kevin O’Connell and Robert Saleh.
Odds of winning NFL Head Coach of the Year 2023
The following is a partial list of the coaches and their odds at the top NFL betting sites in the industry (odds for additional coaches available at sports betting sites):
- Dan Campbell +175 (BetRivers)
- DeMeco Ryans +330 (Caesars)
- Mike McDaniel +650 (FanDuel)
- Kevin O’Connell +1000 (BetRivers)
- Mike Tomlin +1400 (FanDuel)
- Nick Sirianni +2800 (FanDuel)
- Robert Saleh +3000 (Caesars)
- Kevin Stefanski +3500 (Caesars)
- Doug Pederson +4000 (Caesars)
Like every other award handed out to NFL players/coaches, there are trends regarding Coach of the Year odds and winners bettors should review:
- Since 1957, the first year the award was given, 16 COY winners were in their first year coaching their team, seven since 2000. Four of the last six were in their first season.
- Every winner since 2000 coached their team to the playoffs; 17 won their division and five qualified as wild card teams.
- Eleven winners (since 1957) led their team to the Super Bowl/NFL Championship game and won.
- Since 2000, three have led their team to the Super Bowl, but Bill Belichick was the only one to win it (2003).
- The Colts (Bruce Arians, 2012) were the only team not to see its record improve from the previous season. But Arians is also the only interim head coach to win the award (he went 9-3).
- Since 2000, teams improved by seven wins or more from the year before 10 times.
- The teams of eight winners (since 2000) had records better than .500 the previous season; teams of 11 winners had five wins or fewer the year before.
- Over the last eight seasons, only one preseason favorite went on to win (Matt Nagy, 2018). Six in that time frame had preseason odds ranging from +2000 to +5000.
Mike Vrabel (2021) is a unique case. His Titans were coming off an 11-5 season the year before and were on track for a great year when Derek Henry went down with a season-ending injury in Week 8.
They were 6-2 at the time and managed to find enough offense while stepping it up on defense to finish the season 6-3 in games without Henry. At 12-5, the Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the 2021-22 postseason.
More NFL betting: Top 5 NFL Betting Sites | NFL MVP odds
Coach of the Year bets to consider
If you watched Hard Knocks last season, you probably felt like you could run through a wall after one of Dan Campbell’s motivational speeches. But the award is for the coach who does the most outstanding job this season, not the last two.
The Lions are better this season but not so much better than last year that Campbell deserves to be named Coach of the Year.
Instead of Campbell, consider putting your money on:
DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
As Week 11 approaches, the Texans are 5-4 and just one game back in the AFC South. With how they are playing, they could easily go 4-4 down the stretch and may even go 6-2. If Houston wins 10-plus games and makes the playoffs/wins the division, Ryans should win COY.
Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
O’Connell had the Vikings trending upward despite Justin Jefferson’s injury when Kirk Cousins went down with a season-ending injury. But rather than bottom out, Minnesota has continued to win with a QB behind center they just added to the roster.
It will take at least 10 wins to qualify for a wild card berth, but if they can beat the Lions in Weeks 16 and 18, they could win the division.
Robert Saleh, New York Jets
At 4-5, there is not much room for error in the future if Rodgers is going to have a reason to return. If Saleh can keep the team from falling out of the playoff picture, Rodgers returns and leads the Jets to a few wins and they make the postseason, Saleh should be named COY.
Quite a few things have to go the Jets’ way down the stretch for them to be in the playoff picture when/if Rodgers returns. But if they do and Rodgers does…
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