The NFL season has roughly reached its quarter-pole ahead of Week 5 and the contenders and starting to separate themselves from the pretenders in both the AFC and NFC. There is still plenty of time for early favorites to fade and other teams to turn around slow starts, but the NFL’s hierarchy for 2023 is coming into focus.
Those at the bottom of the food chain are going to be facing some tough decisions as the season goes along. Will they stick to the plans outlined by their respective coaching staffs and front offices, or will they start anew with some fresh-faced leadership?
In every year since 2013, there has been at least one NFL coach fired in-season. It seems likely that trend will continue, as a trio of coaches are perched upon a scorching hot seat early in 2023.
Chief among those is Bears coach Matt Eberflus, who may be facing a do-or-die game against the Commanders on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 4. The Bears are 0-4 under his watch and have endured a tumultuous season, leaving him as the odds-on favorite to be the first coach fired at this time.
POWER RANKINGS: Where Bears rank among NFL’s worst teams
But who else is joining Eberflus on the NFL hot seat after four weeks? Here’s a look at whose seats are warming up and cooling off in the early stages of the 2023 NFL season.
NFL coach hot seat rankings
Hot seat coaches
1. Matt Eberflus, Bears
Eberflus is in danger of being the first coach fired in 2023, and it seemingly could come after the Bears’ Week 5 meeting with the Commanders.
Chicago has performed poorly in a year-plus under Eberflus’ watch. He has led the team to a record of just 3-18 in 21 games and things have quickly fallen apart during the team’s 0-4 start to the 2023 season.
It all started ahead of Week 3, when defensive coordinator Alan Williams stepped down from his post. Later that week, quarterback Justin Fields called out the coaching staff when asked about his poor play from the first couple of games.
Then, ahead of Week 4, wide receiver Chase Claypool also called out the coaches for not getting him enough opportunities and he was benched. It was later revealed that the Bears sent him home, a fact that Eberflus failed to mention when initially questioned about it by reporters.
All of those incidences, along with Chicago’s on-field struggles on both sides of the ball, have put Eberflus in an unfavorable position. So, barring a massive turnaround, the question seems to be more about when he might be fired as opposed to if he will be let go.
2. Josh McDaniels, Raiders
The Raiders moving on from interim coach Rich Bisaccia and hiring McDaniels was a flashy move, but it’s one that hasn’t paid off to date.
McDaniels has posted a record of 7-14 with Las Vegas, but it’s worth noting that the season before he arrived, the team had a record of 10-7 and made the playoffs. So, the Raiders have regressed under his watch despite McDaniels replacing long-time starting quarterback Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and bringing in several other players with whom he had previously worked.
McDaniels’ decision-making has come under fire during his Raiders tenure as well. Notably, he chose to kick a field goal when the Raiders were down eight with 2:25 left in their Week 3 matchup against the Steelers. The Raiders only had 12 seconds left to mount a touchdown drive when they got the ball back in the 23-18 loss.
While McDaniels has proven that he is one of the NFL’s best offensive coordinators, he simply hasn’t cut it as a head coach in either his first or second stint in the role. The Raiders could look to give him one more year to prove himself; however, if they finish near the bottom of the league, the team may want to bring in another new head coach and quarterback combination in 2024.
So, suffice to say that McDaniels will be under plenty of pressure during the 2023 NFL season. And the Raiders’ Week 13 bye will be a date to watch if Las Vegas continues to fall short in its efforts to become a competitive team.
3. Brandon Staley, Chargers
Yes, the Chargers entered their Week 5 bye with a 2-2 record. No, it does not mean Staley is safe by any means.
Staley is in his third season with the Chargers and while the team has a 21-17 record under his watch, it also has routinely fallen short of expectations. At the end of the 2021 NFL season, he called a timeout against the Raiders that effectively cost Los Angeles a trip to the playoffs. Last season, he led the Chargers to the postseason, but he also played a role in the team blowing a 24-point lead to the Jaguars.
And this season, Staley has twice gone for it on fourth-and-short late in close games while deep in his own territory. Neither conversion attempt was successful, and if not for timely bail-out interceptions by his defense, the team could be 0-4.
Staley’s aggressive play-calling does pay off on occasion, but it has cost the Chargers more often than it has benefitted them during his tenure. Between that and the team’s penchant for blowing big leads, it would hardly be a surprise if this is Staley’s last season with the Chargers. And if Los Angeles wants to get a look at what type of head coach offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could be, Staley could end up being let go late in the season if the Chargers fall well short of expectations.
MORE: How the Chargers beat the Raiders despite Brandon Staley’s aggressive play-calling
A little bit warm
4. Dennis Allen, Saints
Perhaps Allen is a bit too high on this list given that the Saints are off to a 2-2 start to the 2023 NFL season. That said, the team hasn’t been overly impressive in those two wins — which were by a combined four points — and Allen has struggled to get more than middling results out of the team during his year-plus with the Saints.
The Saints have a 9-12 record under Allen and their offense has largely been the issue under his watch. New Orleans ranked 19th in total yardage and 22nd in scoring during the 2022 season but has regressed to become a bottom-10 unit despite the arrival of Derek Carr in 2023. They averaged just 15.5 points per game in September, which was good for the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
That would be enough to warm up any coach’s seat, but it won’t make Allen’s hot just yet. Why? Well, the defensive-minded coach has done well in getting the most out of that unit, which entered Week 5 ranked 11th in yardage allowed per game (304.3) and ninth in scoring defense (19 points per game allowed).
So, that’s to say that Allen is holding up his end of the bargain on that side of the ball. As such, it seems more likely that offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael could be made a scapegoat if the Saints fail to live up to expectations.
But still, Allen can’t get too complacent. After all, the Saints were favored to win the NFC South. If that doesn’t happen and the Saints miss the playoffs for a third straight year, New Orleans’ ownership will be looking for someone to blame for failing to live up to expectations.
5. Robert Saleh, Jets
Speaking of expectations, Saleh’s Jets haven’t lived up to them to this point. That’s not entirely the fault of the third-year coach. Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles just four snaps into his Jets career, which derailed New York’s 2023 season.
Even so, there were reports that Rodgers wasn’t a fan of the play-call the Jets were utilizing on offense when he got hurt. That can be traced back to Saleh and Nathaniel Hackett’s decision-making; so, if the team bottoms out, that may hurt him in conversations about his future.
So too could be his continued backing of Zach Wilson. Few would have been comfortable utilizing the third-year pro as the backup to Rodgers, but Saleh was on board with it as a tool to develop the quarterback. While Wilson looked good against the Chiefs in Week 4, he largely struggled before that, failing to see the field well and tossing some ugly interceptions.
Still, Saleh can’t be blamed too much for what has transpired, as he was put in an unforgiving position. In fact, some could argue that general manager Joe Douglas deserves a bit more of the blame. After all, the Jets failed to adequately protect Rodgers with quality personnel on the offensive line under his watch and didn’t search for a veteran backup to compete with Wilson.
Nonetheless, Saleh’s seat will be a bit warm throughout the 2023 NFL season. The front office will be evaluating Saleh’s ability to get the most out of New York’s talented defense and revamped offense as much as it will be watching Wilson’s performance. Consistency would certainly help both individuals as they look to stake their claims to jobs in the future.
MORE: Why the Jets can’t, won’t and shouldn’t trade for Kirk Cousins
6. Arthur Smith, Falcons
Arthur Smith led the Falcons to 7-10 records in each of his first two seasons, but some believed the team would be ready to take a step forward in 2023. Atlanta spent the offseason upgrading its defense with veterans like Jesse Bates and Calais Campbell before spending the No. 8 overall pick on running back Bijan Robinson to help take pressure off quarterback Desmond Ridder.
Indeed, it looked like the Falcons could emerge as the best team in the NFC South. However, their offense has been a disappointment to date thanks to Ridder’s lackluster performance.
Ridder has been arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL during the 2023 season. His 77.9 passer rating ranks 28th in the league out of 34 qualified quarterbacks and he has routinely struggled to make the throws needed to keep the Atlanta offense on schedule.
Among Ridder’s biggest issues? He hasn’t been able to get the ball consistently to Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Both were recent first-round picks by the Falcons, but neither has been a major part of the team’s offense to date.
While Ridder can be blamed for some of these issues, Smith deserves a share as well. He comes from an offensive background yet he hasn’t been able to get the ball into the hands of his best playmakers often enough. He has had games during which he hasn’t given the ball to Robinson enough, either opting to trust Tyler Allgeier as the team’s top back or putting it in Ridder’s hands to go downfield.
Atlanta has had a run-dominant identity under Smith’s watch and if he can rekindle that, the Falcons may be able to win enough for him to keep his job. But if Ridder’s struggles continue and Smith stands idly by watching the offense sputter, the Falcons may consider completing their rebuild with a new coach and quarterback combination.
7. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Stefanski’s job doesn’t appear to be in any imminent danger, but it’s worth wondering whether that could change as the season goes on.
As it stands, the Browns look poised to compete for the AFC North title. They have an excellent defense with a great pass rush and their offense looks poised to match it.
However, in wake of Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury, Cleveland is going to have to rely on Deshaun Watson to carry its offense. That may be a risky proposition, as Watson has been, at best, up and down for the Browns since returning from an absence of nearly two full NFL seasons.
Stefanski has struggled to get the most out of Watson since the quarterback signed a $230 million deal after moving from Houston to Cleveland. It has been a small sample size, but the quarterback has a passer rating of just 82.4 and a record of 5-4 in nine starts with the team. And Watson most recently missed the team’s game against the Ravens with a shoulder injury despite being cleared by doctors to participate in it.
If Watson can’t take a step toward being at least an above-average quarterback, the Browns seem likely to fall short of expectations. If that happens, Cleveland may be forced to make some sort of change for their franchise. Because of his guaranteed deal, moving on from Watson wouldn’t be easy; moving on from Stefanski, however, would be relatively simple.
Perhaps it would be hard to sell Cleveland fans on parting with a coach who sports a winning 28-26 record and earned the Browns a playoff victory over the Steelers in 2021. But it’s worth noting that the Browns haven’t had a winning season since Stefanski’s first year in 2020, so parting with him wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
8. Brian Daboll, Giants
In truth, it might be too early to give up on Brian Daboll. He helped the Giants overachieve during his first season, getting them to the playoffs and helping them upset the Vikings in the wild-card round with a great offensive showing.
But since then? The Giants have been disastrous. They were thrashed by the Eagles in the divisional round of the playoffs and have opened up the 2023 NFL season with a 1-3 record. They have led for a total of 19 seconds combined in four games and have scored just nine points in the first half this season; each of their losses has come by at least 18 points.
Making matters worse, Daniel Jones has looked horrible on the heels of signing a new contract that pays him $40 million per season. He has regressed after taking a step forward in Daboll’s first season, taking countless sacks and struggling with turnovers again behind a porous offensive line with few receiving weapons to support him.
To be clear, not all of this is Daboll’s fault. General manager Joe Schoen deserves blame for failing to truly upgrade the offensive line and receiving corps during his first two years in charge of the franchise. And he played a part in signing Jones to that massive extension.
But all told, this feels similar to the Ben McAdoo situation with which the Giants dealt in 2017. He had a great first season then completely face-planted in his second season. He was dismissed because of that, so Daboll can’t hang his hat on one playoff appearance being enough to save him. So, unless things improve in New York, Daboll may be under more fire than anyone thought just one season after winning the NFL’s Coach of the Year award.
MORE: Where Daniel Jones’ extension has him ranked among NFL’s highest-paid players in 2023
9. Ron Rivera, Commanders
Rivera cooled off his hot seat a bit by getting the Commanders off to a 2-0 start. It appears that his decision to hire Eric Bieniemy away from the Chiefs was a good one, as the Washington offense has largely looked solid to start the season despite rolling with the inexperienced Sam Howell as the team’s quarterback.
So, why is Rivera’s seat warm? There are a few reasons. Most notably, the Commanders have a new ownership group led by Josh Harris. While they likely respect Rivera and the work he did during the tumultuous end of Daniel Snyder’s reign, they may want to bring in their own coach as they look to build up the organization.
Secondly, Rivera hasn’t been infallible as a head coach and has made some questionable decisions during his tenure in Washington. Most recently, he played for overtime rather than attempt a potential game-winning two-point conversion at the end of regulation in the Commanders’ 34-31 loss to the Eagles. His reasoning?
“Those guys, they were gassed,” Rivera said of his offense. “They really were. It was a long-ass drive. They were hurrying; they were hustling.”
That argument makes some sense. However, at the same time, if the offense was gassed, why make them try to mount another game-winning drive in overtime? That is a question many fans and NFL analysts were asking after that contest.
So, those inefficiencies might be enough for Rivera to get the axe if the Commanders fail to make a playoff run. Or perhaps the team could try to promote him into the front office after the season and finally give Bieniemy the head coaching shot that he deserves.
10. Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Tomlin has never had a losing season during his time with the Steelers, a remarkable feat that proves he is one of the NFL’s most consistent coaches. However, the team’s offensive struggles in recent seasons have been glaring, and it’s hard not to place some of the blame for those on Tomlin.
Tomlin has tended to hire from within even after firing ineffective coordinators. He did that after the departure of Randy Fichtner following the 2020 NFL season when he promoted Matt Canada to offensive coordinator. The results have been disastrous, as the Steelers are on pace to be a bottom-10 offensive unit for a third consecutive season under Canada’s watch.
If the Steelers’ offense can’t improve and it impacts the growth of Kenny Pickett, that could spell some trouble for Tomlin. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016, so the Rooney family may eventually believe that a new voice is needed.
Even still, the Steelers seem more likely to give Tomlin a chance to rectify his errors by hiring a new offensive coordinator from outside of his staff if the team can’t progress as hoped. Firing him after what may only be one losing season doesn’t seem like a Rooney-like move regardless of the team’s playoff drought.
MORE: Mike Tomlin threatens Steelers will consider changes after loss vs. Texans
11. Bill Belichick, Patriots
The debate in recent seasons surrounding Belichick is whether the veteran head coach’s seat can ever really get hot. He helped lead the Patriots to six Super Bowl wins, after all; his teams just haven’t found much success on offense in the post-Tom Brady era.
It would certainly be fair to attribute those shortcomings to Belichick. He was the one who opted to make Matt Patricia the team’s de facto offensive coordinator in 2022, a move that Mac Jones has never quite recovered from. And Belichick has continued to make questionable decisions when evaluating talent — particularly at wide receiver — so that is another strike against him.
The Patriots suffered their worst defeat under Belichick in their 38-3 loss to the Cowboys in Week 4. If the team continues to bottom out, then Belichick’s seat will grower warmer with each passing week. But even so, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots forcing out the venerable coach before he passes Don Shula for the most wins as a coach in NFL history.
Belichick currently sits at 330 victories combined in the regular season and playoffs; Shula had 347 wins during his legendary career.
First-year coaches with issues
12. Sean Payton, Broncos
The Broncos aren’t likely to make Payton a second consecutive one-and-done coach, but there’s no denying that his seat is warmer after one month than it was at the start of his tenure.
While Payton has helped Russell Wilson to improve after his disastrous season under Nathaniel Hackett, the Broncos’ defense has been dreadful. They rank last in the league in yards (461.5) and points allowed per game (37.5) and became the first NFL team to surrender 70 points in a contest since the 1960s.
Payton’s specialty is offense, but his decision to bring Vance Joseph aboard as his defensive coordinator clearly isn’t working. If Denver needs a scapegoat this season, Joseph will likely get the blame, as he has been a poor replacement for Ejiro Evero, who led the Broncos to a top-10 defense in 2022.
But even if Payton’s coordinator choice comes under fire, he seems likely to stay long-term with the Broncos.
MORE: Sean Payton says Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in history” with Bronocs
13. Frank Reich, Panthers
Reich’s first season in Carolina was always going to be difficult. Yes, the team played in what looked like a weak division and No. 1 pick Bryce Young was supposed to help them compete within it. But still, Young was just a rookie playing in an offense that lacks a true No. 1 receiver and doesn’t have a quality offensive line. So, some bumps in the road were expected.
Still, an 0-4 start during which Young has performed poorly can’t make Panthers owner David Tepper happy, especially considering Reich’s inability to coach up his quarterbacks while with Indianapolis. If Carolina continues to lose, that could cause Reich’s seat to heat up, especially since the Panthers’ 2024 first-round pick doesn’t belong to them as a result of the Young trade.
And if Young never quite performs as well as No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud, who is off to a great start, that will put general manager Scott Fitterer on a scorching hot seat as well.
Cooling off
14. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
Until McCarthy takes the Cowboys on a solid playoff run, his job security with the team will always be in question. Jerry Jones simply wants to win, and he has tended to put a lot of blame for Dallas’ shortcomings onto McCarthy.
That said, McCarthy has the Cowboys off to a strong start in 2023. They thrashed the Giants 40-0 in the season opener and dealt Bill Belichick the worst loss of his head coaching career a few weeks later while improving their overall record to 3-1.
Certainly, that’s enough to slow the hot-seat discussion surrounding McCarthy. But short of a run to the NFC championship game or beyond, there will be postseason questions about his status in Dallas.
15. Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Bowles deserves a lot of credit for getting the post-Tom Brady Buccaneers off to a 3-1 start. The team’s defense has been better in 2023 under his watch while the team’s decision to replace Byron Leftwich with Dave Canales as offensive coordinator has paid off in spades.
MORE: Is Baker Mayfield this year’s Geno Smith?
As long as Baker Mayfield continues to look like a competent starting quarterback, the Buccaneers should be in contention in the NFC South. That will be enough to wash away any negative feelings that surrounded Bowles as Tampa Bay disappointed during Brady’s final campaign.