Our NFL experts are leaning to the road underdog Buffalo Bills ahead of their visit to the Miami Dolphins as Week 2 kicks off on Thursday Night Football. Let’s dive into prop, teaser and ATS picks, as we offer a FanDuel promo worth $200 in bonus bets and a free three-week trial of NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube.
Miami is a short favorite, and the total sits in the high 40s, per odds at top NFL betting sites.
We pick the brains of The Lines’ Stephen Andress and Eli Hershkovich, and Sporting News NFL expert Bill Bender, for their picks on Bills vs. Dolphins.
Bills vs. Dolphins prop bets: Anytime TD scorers
Hershkovich serves up a pair of anytime TD scorer prop bets to consider tonight.
- James Cook at +150 odds. “Miami’s stout run defense surrendered the third-fewest EPA per carry in the Week 1 comeback over Jacksonville. But we’re not asking Cook to have an ultra-efficient performance on the ground. He just needs to score,” Hershkovich writes. “Thus, I’d throw some pizza money on this prop bet. For context, I usually wager a tenth of my normal bet size if I’m wagering on an ATD.”
- Dalton Kincaid +225. Hershkovich: “Even with Buffalo’s intent to establish the run in mind, Kincaid’s defined role should benefit him in the red zone. The Dolphins’ linebackers, David Long Jr. and Jordyn Brooks, also struggle mightily in pass coverage.”
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Bills a solid NFL Week 2 teaser pick
Andress, co-host of TheLines Podcast, has the Bills circled for a two-team, six-point “Wong Teaser” in NFL Week 2. A Wong Teaser involves teasing both teams through the ‘3’ and the ‘7’, a model that theoretically gives a bettor an advantage over the sportsbook with odds of -120 or better. The Bills, at anywhere from +1.5 to +2.5, fit the model.
“Bills QB Josh Allen was his typical MVP-candidate self in Week 1,” Andress observes. “He was top three across the board in advanced metrics, including No. 1 among all quarterbacks in Success Rate, which measures the percentage of plays that gains enough yards to be deemed successful. The Miami defense still has questions in its pass rush, with departed stars and injured incumbents. The Dolphins landed outside the top 20 against the pass in Week 1 in advanced metrics.
“Buffalo is also well built to slow down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, with a strong pass rush and coverage unit, led by cornerback Christian Benford who was No. 1 in Week 1 in PFF’s separation prevented metric. Rasul Douglas also graded out highly.
“Since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach of the Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, Josh Allen and the Bills have only lost one game to Miami, and it was a fluky two-point loss in which Buffalo gained almost 500 yards on offense. Allen has 16 total touchdowns in those five games to just four interceptions. I’m willing to pay to see whether the Dolphins have figured out the Bills yet.
“I’ve opted for a 6-point teaser of Buffalo +8 with the Giants +7.5, teasing through the key numbers of 3 and 7. This has traditionally been the most profitable teaser strategy. If you’re not into teasers, I think the Bills +2.5 still has value.”
TNF ATS picks: Bills cover in outright win over Dolphins
In his weekly NFL picks column, Bender predicts a 27-24 Bills win tonight, offering a lean to Buffalo catching points.
“Buffalo will have to slow down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who both cleared 100 yards in the opener,” Bender writes. “Can Greg Rousseau, who had three sacks in Week 1, disrupt that timing with Tua Tagovailoa? Josh Allen spread the ball out to a new group of receivers, and the Bills have a little more help in the running game with James Cook.”
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