The AFC runs through the North. Just as everyone suspected.
In Week 9, it was a sweep by the Northern teams, which currently puts all four in the playoffs if the season were to end today. The Ravens look the part of the most dominant team in the AFC, the Bengals are back to looking like the team that went to back-to-back conference title games and the Browns and Steelers have defenses that can single-handedly win games.
At least one AFC North team is guaranteed to lose in Week 10, when the Ravens host the Browns, meeting up for the first time this season with Deshaun Watson starting for Cleveland after Dorian Thompson-Robinson started at quarterback in Week 4.
That game could be the highlight of a week that sees its most intriguing games going on during the day on Sunday. C.J. Stroud will return to Ohio to face the red-hot Bengals, the Vikings face the Saints looking to continue their unexpected rise in the wild-card standings, the 49ers and Jaguars — both coming off byes — will face off in Jacksonville and the Lions will head west to face the Chargers.
WEEK 10 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, Sporting News’ model will project every game in the NFL 10,000 times to generate the number of times a team wins a matchup and calculate the win probability. The model adjusts after each week as it learns more about each team and that team’s quarterback.
Listed for each game is its projected spread, according to the model, and a team’s win probability. We’ve also included updated playoff and Super Bowl odds at the bottom. The odds listed with each game are not based on bookmakers, but rather how the model sees the game playing out. We will then compare the model’s odds with those from Caesars Sportsbook, to see how bookmakers are seeing the week’s games.
Here’s how the model sees Week 10 shaping up.
NFL picks, predictions Week 10
Bears (-5) vs. Panthers
Win probability: 66%, Bears
The Panthers picked up their first win of the season over the Texans, but were rolled by the Colts the next week as Bryce Young had arguably his worst game of his young career. The Bears have looked improved in recent weeks, even without Justin Fields under center, outside of an ugly loss to the Chargers, and at home against Carolina, this could be an opportunity for Bagent and the Bears to grab their third win of the season. The model likes the Bears (-5) slightly more than Caesars (-3.5).
Patriots (PK) vs. Colts
Win probability: 50.6%, Patriots
Colts-Patriots used to be one of the league’s premier rivalries. Instead, this year will feature Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones and a battle of sub-.500 teams. The model still isn’t buying into the Minshew-led Colts team and sees this as a pick ’em game, with a slight lean toward the Patriots, while Caesars has Indianapolis as a 1.5-point favorite.
Bengals (-7) vs. Texans
Win probability: 73.2%, Bengals
C.J. Stroud has been the talk of the NFL with his incredible rookie season and his ability to power a Texans team many projected for last in the AFC South to actually being in contention. But this is Stroud’s stiffest test by far, and with the Bengals on fire right now, the model and Caesars both have Joe Burrow and Cincinnati as 7-point favorites to win.
Jaguars (-1) vs. 49ers
Win probability: 52.6%, Jaguars
The model was extremely high on the 49ers early in the season, projecting San Francisco as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Three straight losses have soured it somewhat on San Francisco, to the point where it has the 49ers as underdogs for the first time all year, even if only by a single point. Caesars has San Francisco as 3-point road favorites.
Vikings (-3) vs. Saints
Win probability: 61.5%, Vikings
Unlike the 49ers, the Vikings have steadily risen in the eyes of the model. Minnesota now looks like one of the wild-card teams despite the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins, largely because of the addition of Joshua Dobbs, who has been a solid quarterback in 2023. This is another where the model and Caesars disagree, however, with the sportsbook taking the Saints by 2.5 and the model going Vikings by 3.
Steelers (-5) vs. Packers
Win probability: 66%, Steelers
The Steelers have yet to out-gain an opponent in total yards this season. Yet that defense has helped power Pittsburgh to an impressive 5-3 record. The Packers rolled the Rams in Week 9, but heading to Pittsburgh could be a serious challenge for Jordan Love. The model and Caesars agree to pick the Steelers, with the model giving an extra two points (5 points to Caesars’ 3-point spread) to the Steelers.
Ravens (-10) vs. Browns
Win probability: 80.5%, Ravens
The Ravens began the season behind the Bengals in AFC North divisional odds. They are now not only the runaway favorites to win the division, but they trail just the Eagles and Chiefs in Super Bowl odds. The model has Baltimore as a 10-point favorite, four points ahead of Caesars’ 6-point spread, due largely to Deshaun Watson’s struggles when healthy.
Buccaneers (-2) vs. Titans
Win probability: 56.3%, Buccaneers
Will Levis officially has the reins in Tennessee after an impressive Week 8 performance vs. Atlanta and a shaky Week 9 game against Pittsburgh. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, just watched Stroud carve them up for the team’s fourth straight loss after an impressive 3-1 start. Tampa Bay looks poised for a potential rebound, with the model (-2) and Caesars (-1) both picking the Buccaneers to win.
Falcons (-2) vs. Cardinals
Win probability: 58.5%, Falcons
Nearly in complete agreement, the model (-2) and Caesars (-1.5) both see the Falcons spoiling Kyler Murray’s return to Phoenix on Sunday. The Cardinals were dreadful against Cleveland, and while Murray should be an improvement over Clayton Tune, this team is closer to the No. 1 draft pick than a team like the Falcons, who should be ready to bounce back after back-to-back disappointing losses.
Chargers (PK) vs. Lions
Win probability: 50.7%, Chargers
This matchup might quietly be the game of the week. The Chargers have done everything in two-game streaks (lose two, win two, lose two, win two), so it appears they could be headed for a loss. But they’ve also looked much improved, particularly on offense in back-to-back wins. The Lions are coming off a bye, which should work in their favor, but a trip to Los Angeles could be a decent test against a defense that has at times been shaky against the pass. The model is leaning Chargers in a pick ’em, while Caesars has the Lions as 3-point road favorites.
Cowboys (-13) vs. Giants
Win probability: 87.3%, Cowboys
Is this the mismatch of the year? It might be until the Giants play the Eagles later this year. Tommy DeVito has looked awful at quarterback, and the Cowboys are feating for a bounce back after a narrow loss to Philadelphia. The model has the Cowboys as 13-point favorites, while Caesars is going even more lopsided at 16.5 for Dallas.
Seahawks (-6) vs. Commanders
Win probability: 69%, Seahawks
Which Seattle team is going to show up on Sunday? The one that got mauled by Baltimore, or the one that has at times looked like one of the more balanced offenses in the league. Facing a Washington team fresh off trading both edge-rushers, the Seahawks look like solid bets to win at home, with both Caesars and the model setting the line at 6 points for Seattle.
Jets (-3) vs. Raiders
Win probability: 59%, Jets
Maybe Josh McDaniels was the problem? The Raiders looked like a different team in Week 9 fresh after making a coaching change. That might also be because they faced the woeful Giants. The Jets’ offense still looks disjointed with Zach Wilson, but that defense is relentless. Aidan O’Connell making only his third career start could have some problems in this one, with Caesars picking the Jets by 1 and the model going Jets by 3.
Bills (-9) vs. Broncos
Win probability: 77.7%, Bills
The Bills are at a crucial point in their season. At 5-4, they’re one of the league’s most disappointing teams following a loss to the Bengals. Miami’s inability to put the division away is keeping Buffalo in the running, but the Bills need to start racking up wins to avoid falling behind too much in the wild-card race. Facing the Broncos on “Monday Night Football” in Buffalo feels like a good place to bounce back, with the model going Bills by 9 and Caesars picking the Bills by 7.5.
Updated NFL projections 2023
AFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Dolphins | 11-6 | 76.3% | 14.5% | 90.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 3.9% |
| Bills | 10-7 | 17.2% | 31.2% | 48.4% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Jets | 8-9 | 6.5% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patriots | 5-12 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Ravens | 12-5 | 75.7% | 20.9% | 96.6% | 24.5% | 24.4% | 13.0% |
| Bengals | 11-6 | 13.3% | 52.7% | 66.0% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 5.6% | 37.1% | 42.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Steelers | 9-8 | 5.5% | 35.8% | 41.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
AFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Jaguars | 12-5 | 83.2% | 9.7% | 92.9% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 5.0% |
| Texans | 9-8 | 13.3% | 27.6% | 40.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Colts | 7-10 | 1.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Titans | 7-10 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Chiefs | 13-4 | 95.2% | 4.2% | 99.4% | 48.8% | 40.9% | 22.8% |
| Chargers | 9-8 | 4.7% | 38.6% | 43.3% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Raiders | 6-11 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Broncos | 6-11 | 0.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
NFC East
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Eagles | 14-3 | 95.9% | 4.1% | 100.0% | 76.5% | 55.9% | 29.3% |
| Cowboys | 10-7 | 4.1% | 85.2% | 89.3% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Commanders | 7-10 | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giants | 4-13 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Lions | 12-5 | 83.4% | 14.8% | 98.2% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 7.4% |
| Vikings | 9-8 | 15.9% | 62.1% | 78.0% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Packers | 7-10 | 0.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bears | 5-12 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| Saints | 10-7 | 69.2% | 11.3% | 80.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Falcons | 8-9 | 21.0% | 17.7% | 38.7% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Buccaneers | 7-10 | 9.6% | 12.2% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Panthers | 4-13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Team | xW-L | Division% | Wild card% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | Conference champion% | Super Bowl champion% |
| 49ers | 11-6 | 79.1% | 17.4% | 96.5% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 7.2% |
| Seahawks | 9-8 | 20.3% | 48.3% | 68.6% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Rams | 6-11 | 0.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cardinals | 3-14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |