Week 1 had its share of surprise results with plenty of teams being unknown quantities going into the 2021 NFL regular season. But it’s good to have some data points and understand what kind of vibes every team in the league is putting out early.
That should make Week 2 a little easier to handle another full slate of games. What’s notable is having three massive favorites on the board while the rest of the matchups call for one-possession spreads.
Whether the number is big or small, here’s helping you navigate through it all. Here’s also hoping to build on some solid but unspectacular initial returns:
(Game odds courtesy of FanDuel)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Big bumps for Steelers and Saints, but how about that NFC West?
NFL picks against the spread for Week 2
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Game of the Week: Chiefs (-3.5, 54.5 o/u) at Ravens
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Chiefs have controlled this series when it’s been Andy Reid vs. protege John Harbaugh and Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. Don’t expect a different result here with Baltimore coming off a short week and Kansas City being a fearless traveling team. The Chiefs’ defense is better positioned to contain Jackson while the Ravens are not as equipped to handle Mahomes throwing downfield often to his favorite targets, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Take advantage of the low number in the Chiefs’ favor.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-23 and cover the spread.
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Game of Midweek: Giants at Washington Football Team (-4, 41 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Giants looked like an offensive mess around Daniel Jones in Week 1 and although their defense played at well at times, it still gave up too much at the wrong times. Washington also was handed a rough home defeat from an AFC West team and also lost Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury, prompting a return to Taylor Heinicke at QB. WFT is the put-together team offensively and defensively under Ron Rivera, while New York is bound to have more dysfunction still without an identity for Joe Judge.
Pick: Washington wins 20-13 and covers the spread.
Result: Washington wins 30-29
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Lock of the Week: Steelers (-6.5, 46.5 o/u) over Raiders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
There’s no break for Las Vegas, coming from home against Baltimore, having played deep into overtime on a short week, out to another AFC North power in Pittsburgh. The state of the Raiders’ passing game with Derek Carr doesn’t inspire it will handle the Steelers’ aces in pass rush and coverage. The Steelers folded offensively against the Bills, but this will be a get-well game for their talented trio of wide receivers and a breakout opportunity for rookie first-round running back Najee Harris.
Pick: Steelers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Worst overreactions from NFL Week 1
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Upset of the Week: Eagles over 49ers (-3, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles’ domination of the Falcons in Week 1 cannot be ignored. They got everything they could have asked for from Jalen Hurts and the offense. The defense was very active and got after it up front. Nick Sirianni already looks like a young coaching star in the Kyle Shanahan vein. San Francisco has traveled well to the East with Shanahan, but their sloppiness late in Detroit will carry over a little to Philadelphia. The Eagles will find many of the same things to exploit in the 49ers’ defense the Lions did, only at a higher level.
Pick: Eagles win 27-24.
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Bengals at Bears (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears are messing around with their quarterbacks and doing their entire offense a disservice. They can run the ball well with David Montgomery, but they won’t tap into their full passing potential until rookie first-rounder Justin Fields is the regular starter. Chicago’s pass defense issues also showed up against the Rams’ receivers and Cincinnati’s trio is dangerous for Joe Burrow. The Bengals also found a pass rush and run defense in key situations to upend the Vikings. Cincinnati continues to be an early season pleasant surprise, while the hot seat will begin to scorch for Andy Dalton and Matt Nagy.
Pick: Bengals win 24-20.
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Texans at Browns (-13.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Tyrod Taylor was terrific in lifting Houston out of its Deshaun Watson problems in Week 1. He has good leadership qualities on top of dual threat skills that include a strong arm and athleticism when needed. Now he gets a “revenge game” on the road in Cleveland, the team that displaced him for Baker Mayfield four seasons ago. Unfortunately, the Texans are facing a more dangerous offense this week that also focuses on exploiting their major run defense weakness with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Look for Mayfield to flip the script, this time holding a big lead as the Browns’ defense keeps Taylor from pulling off a Mahomes-like comeback.
Pick: Browns win 38-21 and cover the spread.
MORE: Grading the rookie QB debuts from Week 1
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Rams (-3.5, 48.5 o/u) at Colts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams love their new QB in Matthew Stafford. The Colts are still trying to have those same feelings for Carson Wentz. Indianapolis gets another brutal home game against an NFC West offenisve power, one with an even stronger defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Once the Colts are contained with Jonathan Taylor in the running game, they don’t have the weapons for Wentz to answer Stafford. The Colts’ defense didn’t inspire in faltering against the Seahawks’ Sean McVay-adjacent offense.
Pick: Rams win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Bills (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bills lost their offensive mojo with the Steelers’ defense stymying Josh Allen in the opener. The Dolphins got just enough offense from Tua Tagovailoa to bounce the Patriots. The good news, both Buffalo and Miami are coming off strong defensive peformances in their wins. That will keep this game lower-scoring and a grind between two division rivals. The Bills will scratch this game out as Allen can be trusted to make the key couple big plays with his arm and legs over Tagovailoa.
Pick: Bills win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Patriots (-6, 42.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots have a great history against rookie quarterbacks with Bill Belichick and the Panthers will have provided plenty of good game film on how to frustrate a promising but green Zach Wilson. Look for New England to not worry much about the run and focus on taking away Wilson’s clear top target, Corey Davis, even without Stephon Gilmore. Rookie counterpart Mac Jones has more support with his offensive line, running game and versatile supporting skill personnel to move the ball in methodical, mistake-free fashion.
Pick: Patriots win 24-13 and cover the spread.
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Saints (-3.5, 44.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints came through with an emotional victory playing their home opener far away from New Orleans, dominating the Packers in Jacksonville. Although they will cool down a little on the real road in Carolina, Alvin Kamara will win the scrimmage duel with Christian McCaffrey given the superior offensive line, which also means Jameis Winston can be trusted to deliver the key big plays downfield over Sam Darnold. The Saints have a good idea of what former assistant Joe Brady wants to do, a boost to an inspired defense in transition.
Pick: Saints win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Broncos (-6, 45.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos beat he Giants with their defense and running game, but they lost a key target for Teddy Bridgewater in the passing game with Jerry Jeudy suffering a high ankle sprain. Defensive stud Von Miller is back to lead the pressure package for Vic Fangio, buoyed by better coverage. Miller will help rattle Trevor Lawrence after the Jaguars’ running game is contained. Denver doesn’t need to deviate from its winning formula against another lesser team. Jacksonville will build on a good second half against the Texans to look more with it for Urban Meyer, but that’s about it at 0-2.
Pick: Broncos 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Vikings at Cardinals (-3.5, 50.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings expected to be better defensively, especially up front. The Cardinals have gotten a lot better defensively with the combination of J.J. Watt and a healthy Chandler Jones. Minnesota has plenty of more firepower than Tennessee does, however, to complement its own run-heavy approach with Dalvin Cook. Former long-time Cardinal Patrick Peterson will do his best to handle DeAndre Hopkins, but Kyler Murray has more weapons than Kirk Cousins, including his legs. Arizona wins a wild one in the desert to improves to 2-0, while Minnesota is dealt another close road loss.
Pick: Cardinals win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Falcons at Buccaneers (-12.5, 52.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons looked awful offensively in the first game with Arthur Smith, who might have forced the running game against the Eagles and put Matt Ryan in an uncomfortable situation when that led to trailing in the second half. Expect the adjustment of letting Ryan loose early with his wide receivers and hybrid rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, because passing on the Bucs will be a lot easier than trying to run on them. The Bucs’ edge pass rush will shut the door on any type of division spoiler comeback after Tom Brady does plenty of damage with his own wideouts and tight ends again.
Pick: Buccaneers win 31-21 but fail to cover the spread.
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Cowboys at Chargers (-3, 54.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Cowboys had to be pleased with Dak Prescott’s return in defeat at Tampa and he gets a long week to get his shoulder stronger for Week 2. Dallas considers L.A. a home away from Oxnard, Calif., and should have plenty of fans packing SoFi Stadium. Dallas will have more success running the ball with Ezekiel Elliott in this game, to help further open up the big pass plays for Prescott to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Justin Herbert and Los Angeles’ skill players will be sharper than they were in Washington, leading to another exciting game in which Prescott outduels him.
Pick: Cowboys win 34-27.
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Titans at Seahawks (-6.5, 54.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Titans have a problem. Their defense is relying on a youthful secondary behind a non-existent pass rush. They also are a game-script dependent offense, where they work only when Derrick Henry can get going running early or Ryan Tannehill can operate off play-action. The Seahawks jumped on the run-heavy Colts last week with Russell Wilson lighting it up and didn’t look back with their defense able to tee off in the second half. Henry will run better this week to help keep the Titans in the game, but Wilson should make sure Seattle gets to 2-0 at home, by late comeback if needed.
Pick: Seahawks win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lions at Packers (-12.5, 48.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Packers have tended to have an absolute clunker with Matt LaFleur every season, so they should be hoping the listless performance against the Saints in Jacksonville is the 2021 version. They tend to come back strong from those spots in get-well games. This will be just that for Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones, with the defense also playing more inspired at Lambeau Field. Detroit won’t be getting a back-door cover again on the road against a supposed NFC power.
Pick: Packers win 38-14 and cover the spread.
Vinnie Iyer’s 2021 picks:
- Week 1 record against the spread: 8-7
- Week 1 record straight up: 9-6
- Season ATS: 8-7
- Season straight up: 9-6