After a strong 2023 regular season with our picks and predictions against the spread for Sporting News, there’s still plenty of good work that needs to be done to keep up the success in 2024 playoffs.
With 272 games in the books, there are only 13 more left, including Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas on Feb. 11. But just like with the many matchups that have come before, it’s better to follow the old cliche and keep taking it one week at a time.
The first challenge lies in six tricky games for the wild-card round, with only two home teams being significant favorites.
Here are Sporting News’ picks against the spread for the NFL’s wild-card weekend.
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Every playoff team’s real chances of winning Super Bowl 58
NFL playoff picks, predictions against the spread
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AFC Game of the Week: Dolphins at Chiefs (-3.5, 42.5 o/u)
Saturday 8 p.m. ET, Peacock
When the teams played in Germany in Week 9, there was little offense from Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa as the Chiefs held on for a 21-14 victory. Miami’s struggles are real as injuries to Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert have thrown off the mojo. There’s a chance they return to help, but of late, the Dolphins have been easier to stop if a team can contain Tyreek Hill. Hill’s former team can do that with its strong all-around corner play led by L’Jarius Sneed, while Chris Jones and the pass rush limit Tagovailoa’s time to throw downfield.
The Chiefs should figure some more things out and be much healthier after taking a self-imposed bye in Week 18. The extra time also will have given Adny Reid and Patrick Mahomes to come up with more effective wrinkles and rejuvenate Travis Kelce a bit. The Dolphins’ defense is also riddled with injuries to its pressure producers in the front seven and it’s uncertain whether Xavien Howard can return at corner.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-17 and cover the spread
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NFC Game of the Week: Eagles (-2.5, 44 o/u) at Buccaneers
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Tne Eagles have the exact opposite vibes going into this year’s playoffs as a wild-card team than they did last season as the NFC clear No. 1 seed. This takes them back to the opening wild-card matchup from two seasons ago in Tampa.
Jalen Hurts is hurting. A.J. Brown is battling knee woes. The offensive line is banged up. The stout run defense has broken down a bit and the pass defense keeps on reeling, no matter the opponent. The Buccaneers have been a bit all over the place while battling injuries in their own right, but they are due to fire up the passing game well with Baker Mayfield at home.
The Bucs can make the Eagles’ one-dimensional and the zone defense can compress the passing game, especially if Brown is limited or can’t go. On the other side, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer have great corner matchups to exploit while Mayfield is kept rather clean playing off Rachaad White’s running.
Pick: Buccaneers win 24-22.
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Lock of the Week: Cowboys (-7.5, 49.5 o/u) over Packers
Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys were destroying teams in Dallas this season until the Seahawks and Lions and pushed them to the brink. They still were the only team to finish 8-0 at home. Although some will see this as the Packers getting a crack at Mike McCarthy, don’t forget the reverse motivation. McCarthy has found a good rebound in Dallas, while Matt LaFleur, despite also having some big regular seasons with Aaron Rodgers, hasn’t seen the playoff breakthrough.
Jordan Love has a promising career as Rodgers’ successor and he gave Green Bay a ton of long-term confidence this season. But he’s also young and can be mistake-prone and is also operating with inexperienced receivers. The Cowboys’ pass rush and secondary is well positioned to make key stops here. Meanwhile, the Packers’ messy pass defense returns as Dak Prescott picks it apart with plenty more of CeeDee Lamb and a variety of downfield targets.
Pick: Cowboys win 33-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Sporting News staff predictions for 2024 playoffs and Super Bowl 58
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Upset of the Week: Rams (+3, 51.5 o/u) over Lions
Sunday 8 p.m. ET, NBC
The Rams first got a Super Bowl win out of the Matthew Stafford trade. The Lions later got the foundation for a strong young playoff team, with Jared Goff providing the right veteran guidance under Dan Campbell. The Rams, who were supposed to be headed to rebuild mode under Sean McVary in 2023, are intersecting the Lions with their own mini, quicker resurrection.
The Lions have a good running game, but that’s the Rams’ defensive strength. The Rams have a good running game, but that’s the Lions’ defensive strength. So this game will be the expected and desired shootout between Stafford and Goff in Ford Field. Although Goff is better at home, recent play suggests it’s easier to trust Stafford to make more big plays with fewer big mistakes. Goff has Amon-Ra St. Brown once again to lead his charge, but rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is key absence in this matchup. Stafford produces more points with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua taking turns.
Pick: Rams win 31-27.
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Browns (-2.5, 44 o/u) at Texans
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Browns will not blow out the Texans for the second time in four weeks after winning 36-22 in Houston in Week 16. Houston’s offense had limited life without standout rookie C.J. Stroud and Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper won’t duplicate that dominant connection. This game will be more dictated by the defenses, more so Myles Garrett and the rested, loaded Browns vs. Will Anderson Jr. and the more inexperienced Texans. Stroud takes some lumps vs. pressure while Flacco grinds it out with more some good help from the rushing attack.
Pick: Browns win 20-17 and cover the spread.
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Steelers at Bills (-9.5, 37.5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills got the Dolphins and a shaky QB situation to open the playoffs last year. They get a similar benefit from Mason Rudolph starting for the Steelers. He’s been playing caretaker, showing just a few flashes throwing downfield while watching the defense and running game deliver the past three weeks. But that defense remains hurting with T.J. Watt again and Najee Harris will see harder sledding in Buffalo. On the other side, Josh Allen’s turnover wildness will be tamed by more calculated, methodical passing and thriving running game led by James Cook.
Pick: Bills win 27-13 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
Week 18 straight up: 11-5
Week 18 against the spread: 10-6
Season straight up: 182-90
Season against the spread: 142-124-1