Week 6 of the wild and wacky 2022 NFL season didn’t fall on a Friday the 13th weekend and was a few weeks ahead of Halloween. That didn’t stop the slate of games to have some scary results.
The 49ers, Packers and Buccaneers all tumbled in major upsets. The Giants, Jets and Vikings continue their march to surprising seasons. Scoring is down and the Eagles at home are the most reliable thing going in an unpredictable year.
What does that mean to improve on our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 7? Don’t assume anything and focus on the right numbers.
Here’s the latest fearless forecast of 14 more professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: Surprising Giants, Vikings, Jets continue to rise
NFL picks against the spread for Week 7
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Game of Midweek: Saints at Cardinals (-1.5, 45 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Saints look like they will stick with Andy Dalton as the starting QB. Dalton doesn’t have a good track record in prime time. New Orleans will try to win with another heavy dose of the running game but its defense is wilting overall. The Cardinals will be down Marquise Brown but DeAndre Hopkins is there to help Kyler Murray in a critical rebound spot at home. Arizona’s defense will overachieve and get some key takeaways from whoever’s at QB.
Pick: Cardinals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Chiefs (-3, 48 o/u) at 49ers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Chiefs had a narrow escape against the Raiders and then couldn’t finish off the Bills, both at home. The 49ers are coming off one road blowout win and one road blowout loss. San Francisco’s defensive injuries are significant to open up the running and passing matchups for Kansas City. Patriots Mahomes once again outplays Jimmy Garoppolo, like he did in Super Bowl 54.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-23 and cover the spread.
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AFC Game of the Week: Steelers at Dolphins (-7, 44 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Steelers will likely need to go back to Mitchell Trubisky at QB with rookie Kenny Pickett concussed. The Dolphins will be going with either Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater. They will use the great matchups for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against an injury-riddled Pittsburgh pass defense to move the ball well. The Steelers can counter with more pop with Najee Harris and the running game, set up good opportunities with their talented wide receivers vs. a thin secondary.
Pick: Dolphins win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: Patriots (-9, 39.5 o/u) over Bears
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
There’s no point in messing around here anymore. Bill Belichick’s improving defense is getting a big assist from rookie Bailey Zappe stabilizing a run-heavy offense at quarterback. That complements red-hot second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson in the rushing attack. Belichick will easily solve a second-year QB, Justin Fields, stuck in a predictable offense that’s neither versatile or multiple. Stevenson will destroy another bad run defense.
Pick: Patriots win 33-14 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Jets over Broncos (-3, 42 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
This another type of game in the Jets’ favor. They can disrupt a struggling Russell Wilson with a young defense growing in confidence and their run-heavy offense will give the Broncos’ sneaky problems. Zach Wilson will keep his volume down but there will be one or two matchups to exploit with his wide receivers and tight ends. Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur have the combined coaching edge, too, over Nathaniel Hackett and Ejiro Evero.
Pick: Jets win 20-17.
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Falcons at Bengals (-6, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Falcons are at their best when they can jump ahead and get into their relentless run-based offense with a committee of backs and Marcus Mariota also being a part of it. The Bengals will push them out of that comfort zone with Joe Burrow taking advantage of their cornerback injuries and minus pass rush with Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and a healthier Tee Higgins.
Pick: Bengals win 34-20 and cover the spread.
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Lions at Cowboys (-7, 48 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Cowboys are hoping to get Dak Prescott back but he figures to be a little rusty and the Lions’ offense should be back near full strength running and passing to erase memories of the shutout of the pre-bye shutout in New England. Dallas’ offense still isn’t operating at usual explosive levels and Detroit will keep it close with a balanced attack to take pressure off Jared Goff.
Pick: Cowboys win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
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Colts at Titans (-3, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts got their offensive line playing at a high level last week to keep Matt Ryan clean to throw downfield and also spring Deon Jackson to a Jonathan Taylor-like game without Taylor. The Titans will keep running well with Derrick Henry, too, but Taylor’s likely return plus Matt Ryan staying sharper than Ryan Tannehill with better weapons makes the slight difference.
Pick: Colts win 24-23.
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Packers (-5.5, 41.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers lost to New York teams in London and Lambeau. With a brutal schedule still ahead, including the Bills in Week 8, they will be desperate to do what’s needed here on the road. Aaron Rogers and Green Bay’s struggling offense gets a needed break against a horrible pass defense that is also vulnerable against the run. They will get well knowing Taylor Heinicke will be limited in leading a comeback.
Pick: Packers win 30-17 and cover the spread
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Buccaneers (-10.5, 40.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Buccaneers haven’t dominated by any means with their offense working out new kinks around Tom Brady. But two of their three wins have come taking care of division foes. Assuming Brady doesn’t hit a Friday night wedding, he should play more like the GOAT on Sunday with a big assist from Leonard Fournette against a defense weaker vs. the run than pass. Carolina’s QB situation is a mess in relation and the Bucs have the defense to at least contain Christian McCaffrey.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-13 and cover the spread.
NFL MOCK DRAFT: Panthers, Lions, Texans take QBs; Commanders, Eagles go defense in top 10
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Giants at Jaguars (-3, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Giants seem due for a letdown after dispatching the Packers and Ravens back-to-back to place a stamp on their 5-1 record. But they are doing it by winning battles of attrition late with limited yet timely offense. The Jaguars will struggle more against the run vs. Saquon Barkley, but can cause issues for Daniel Jones. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence will lean on his versatile running backs to grind out a home victory.
Pick: Jaguars win 21-20 but fail to cover the spread.
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Browns at Ravens (-7, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns’ run defense is in shambles and Myles Garrett is hurting again. Their linebacker and secondary play have been a major disappointment. That should work out well for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ traditional running game. The Browns also have no real answers for Mark Andrews or downfield shot plays off play-action. Jacoby Brissett will be rattled with Nick Chubb contained again.
Pick: Ravens win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Texans at Raiders (-7, 46 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders will clean up more things offensively after the bye. They got revved up again in the red zone in Kansas City in Week 5. Between Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow all expected to be healthy at the same time, it will be a challenge for the Texans’ overachieving zone pass defense under Lovie Smith. While the running of Dameon Pierce can keep the Texans in the game early, Davis Mills’ road woes continue to be costly.
Pick: Raiders win 33-21 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks at Chargers (-7.5, 52.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks’ offense can give the Chargers problems with rookie running back Kenneth Walker and having speedy downfield wideouts in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett working off play-action. Geno Smith will be efficient again dueling Justin Herbert but eventually Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams and the Chargers’ other mismatch creating offensive weapons will be too much.
Pick: Chargers win 34-27 but fail to cover the spread.
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Stats of the Week
Week 6 record straight up: 6-7
Week 6 record against the spread: 6-7
Season record straight up: 53-38
Season record against the spread: 44-48