The first half of the 2024 NFL season ended with a wacky Week 9. After the Rams took down the Vikings in the first game on the slate, there were a lot of unpredictable results and wild finishes in one-possession games. Beyond that, some road teams dominated and some home teams fell flat in the final minutes.
That sets up Week 9 to have its own wild ride, back down to 15 games vs. the full 16-contest slate we saw last week.
Without further ado, here’s fearlessly forecasting in the latest version of Sporting News’ NFL picks and predictions against the spread.
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NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
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Texans (pick ’em, 42.5 o/u) at Jets
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
These are two of the league’s best pass defenses, and each is facing a QB with adversity. C.J. Stroud is dealing with depletion at receiver, while Jets counterpart Aaron Rodgers is struggling with dysfunction everywhere. The difference will be the team more willing to run to be better offensively. The Texans haven’t shied away with their often dominant ground game with Joe Mixon, while the Jets will continue to mismanage the touches of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.
Pick: Texans win 23-20 and cover the spread.
MORE JETS: Aaron Rodgers says Jets must embrace ‘the darkness’
MORE TEXANS: Stefon Diggs injury update
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Game of the Week: Lions (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) at Packers
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers are looking at Malik Willis starting at QB again over a banged-up Jordan Love (groin). That will limit their needed offensive firepower to overcome another blowup game for the Lions’ offense. The Packers can be picked apart inside in the passing game and also are shaky against the run at times, playing right into the hands of Detroit’s explosive, balanced attack.
Pick: Lions win 30-23 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jordan Love injury update
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Lock of the Week: Eagles (-7, 46 o/u) over Jaguars
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Eagles’ offense is locked in again with Jalen Hurts feeling with his elite wide receivers to execute all the big plays called by Kellen Moore. The Jaguars’ defense has been terrible against the pass all season, and Hurts should light it up downfield at home. Former Eagles coach Doug Pederson comes in with a wishy-washy Trevor Lawrence, and his QB is dealing with an injury-riddled receiving corps.
Pick: Eagles win 34-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Christian Kirk injury update
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Upset of the Week: Cowboys (+2.5, 52 o/u) over Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys are a tough matchup for the pass-happier Falcons with Kirk Cousins. Their defense also isn’t built to win here, as it can give up plenty against the pass and Dak Prescott will remain relentless throwing downfield to CeeDee Lamb and others. Atlanta needs to run enough to win, but it will fall because Dallas will wisely choose not to run much at all.
Pick: Cowboys win 30-27.
MORE COWBOYS: Why key 49ers TD wasn’t ruled offensive pass interference | Trevon Diggs confronts reporter after loss
MORE FALCONS: Kirk Cousins proving Falcons made NFL’s best offseason move
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Dolphins at Bills (-6.5, 49 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills are rolling with their offense, striking the right balance between Josh Allen’s efficient downfield passing and dominating with the running game. That’s a bad 1-2 punch for a Dolphins defense on the ropes. The Dolphins can stay in the game by running De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, but in the end, they will wilt late with some pressure on Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Bills win 31-21 and cover the spread.
MORE: Tua Tagovailoa draws praise for sliding on QB scramble
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Raiders at Bengals (-7.5, 45 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals have teetered in and out of playoff contention after their 0-3 start and need to play better at home to have any kind of slim chance. Joe Burrow seems off whenever Tee Higgins doesn’t play to help him and Ja’Marr Chase. Here, the Bengals take the burden off Burrow with a prolific running game with Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Lou Anarumo’s maligned defense can deliver a get-well game after the Eagles’ mess.
Pick: Bengals win 34-17 and cover the spread.
WEEK 9 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
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Chargers (-2, 42.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers will stick with their “run the ball, stop the run” formula knowing they can cause some problems in pass defense for Jameis Winston. Justin Herbert builds on last week’s performance to build a lead through the air so his teammates can tee off on Winston to preserve a low-scoring game in the second half.
Pick: Chargers win 20-13 and cover the spread.
MORE: Comparing Browns offense with Jameis Winston vs. Deshaun Watson | Jameis channels Eminem in interview
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Patriots at Titans (-3, 38 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Patriots are feeling it with their running game and defense, and Jerod Mayo will see another strong performance on the road. Whoever’s at quarterback for either team, New England will run the ball better and also make the clutch defensive plays and takeaways to steal another one against the AFC’s true worst team.
Pick: Patriots win 20-17.
MORE: Drake Maye injury update
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Commanders (-3.5, 43 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Jayden Daniels is locked in with the running game coming through every week to facilitate his downfield passing. But the big recent development for Washington is the defense improving up front every week for Dan Quinn. They will keep roughing up a struggling Giants’ offense that can’t seem to get a matchup break.
Pick: Commanders win 23-16 and cover the spread.
MORE: Jayden Daniels Hail Mary reactions | Daniels outduels Caleb Williams | Daniels impresses in post-game interview
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Saints (-7, 45 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The QB plans have been derailed for both teams because of injuries and ineffectiveness. This sets up to be an uninspiring, low-scoring battle between second-year QBs Bryce Young and Jake Haener. The team with the best supporting playmakers, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave, will score just enough.
Pick: Saints win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings | Week 9 NFL picks
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Broncos at Ravens (-9, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos are fielding a sound offense with dual-threat QB Bo Nix playing well, channeling his inner Lamar Jackson. Now, he gets to face the actual Lamar Jackson in a big game for both playoff hopefuls. Nix and Sean Payton will keep Denver in it with some good passing and pass defense, but in the end, Denver’s front will be worn down by Derrick Henry.
Pick: Ravens win 26-23 but fail to cover the spread.
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Bears (pick ’em, 44.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears are going to the desert looking to make up for their dry performance in Washington. Kyler Murray vs. Caleb Williams presents yet another duel of Heisman-winning QBs and No. 1 overall picks. Murray is revving up with his supporting cast, but the problem here will be Arizona’s run defense. Chicago’s overall defense will rebound from the shock of a Hail Mary.
Pick: Bears win 23-20.
MORE: Caleb Williams struggles in duel with Daniels | Tyrique Stevenson apologizes for mistakes during Hail Mary
Kirby Lee
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Rams (pick ’em, 48.5 o/u) at Seahawks
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams will be relentless in running Kyren Williams, and the Seahawks will have no answers for the run again. They also are starting to struggle in the secondary, not getting the pass rush going for Mike Macdonald. Seattle’s fast pace will play more into the hands of Los Angeles’ loaded, rested, and healthy offense.
Pick: Rams win 31-27.
MORE RAMS: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp quiet trade rumors in win vs. Vikings
MORE SEAHAWKS: Seahawks defensive players fight on sideline
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Colts at Vikings (-5.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
Anthony Richardson is trying to keep the starting job over Joe Flacco, but the only thing he offers is a rushing threat to help Jonathan Taylor’s running out of the backfield. The slumping sophomore QB won’t avoid the pressure and turnover-focused attack of the Vikings. On the flip side, Sam Darnold can attack another secondary that cannot stop Justin Jefferson or any of Minnesota’s downfield receivers.
Pick: Vikings win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE VIKINGS: How refs missed blatant facemask penalty on Rams’ game-sealing safety vs. Vikings
MORE COLTS: Shane Steichen indicates Colts sticking with Richardson | Richardson checks himself out because of fatigue
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Buccaneers at Chiefs (-9, 44.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Chiefs get a break with a short-handed Buccaneers passing game coming into Kansas City, setting this up as a tough prime-time spot for Baker Mayfield. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce should combine for another big game and get more help from the wideouts all over the field. Tampa Bay will need to run to win, but it can’t effectively do so here, especially when the game script becomes negative.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-10 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 8 record straight up: 10-5
- Week 8 record against the spread: 7-8
- Season-to-date straight up: 83-39
- Season-to-date against the spread: 64-57