LAS VEGAS — As a general rule, I like to restrict this column to the week’s best games, the influential squads that are battling for conference supremacy, those jousting to stay atop a division.
Which has left scant space for Green Bay, till this week. The franchise spiraling toward oblivion only enters our domain because the biggest early sharp action at the South Point and sister sportsbook Rampart favored the Packers.
The 2-5 Packers, seemingly on a collision course with their worst season (4-12 in 2005) over the past 31 years, who have failed to cover their past four games.
Monday morning, those two properties opened Green Bay -1.5 against the visiting Rams, and that supposedly smart cash quickly moved it to Packers -3.
LA quarterback Matthew Stafford injured a ligament in the thumb of his (right) throwing hand during Sunday’s 43-20 defeat in Dallas and is considered day-to-day. Bettors believe he’s a longshot to play in Green Bay.
“I’m seeing shops with the -120 vig hooked onto the three,” Rampart Casino race and sports manager Duane Colucci says. “The Rams are an enigma, couldn’t play at all with the Cowboys. And Green Bay looks terrible. Horrible.
“But that’s among the biggest hits we’ve taken. I was surprised with the Green Bay money. I understand that Stafford probably won’t play. Still, crazy.”
NFL Week 9 Sharp Money Report
Miami Dolphins (6-2, 6-2 ATS) vs Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
- Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Frankfurt Stadium, Frankfurt, GER
The Dolphins went to Buffalo, and lost. They went to Philadelphia, and lost. Neither was close. The Fins fall just a few notches short of élite, but mid-week money on them sliced this from 2.5.
“Miami can’t beat these high-caliber teams,” Colucci says. “They’ll have to step it up, eventually, and compete with these teams. We’ll see how they react to the Chiefs.”
He notes that KC QB Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce are “a little banged up … so now is a good time.
“I think the Chiefs were looking ahead to this game last week. I can’t give any other explanation of how Denver could beat the Chiefs under any circumstances.”
Futures: Where do Chiefs, Dolphins sit on Super Bowl odds board?
Minnesota Vikings (4-4, 4-3-1 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 2-6 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
The other big early sharp action taken by South Point/Rampart was on this tilt, which they opened Atlanta -4 and soon moved to -5.
“We took a couple of pops, one at the South Point and one at Rampart,” Colucci says. “The public did so well last week with those big favorites, I anticipate them continuing to bet the favorites.”
The Vikes lost QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles’ tendon) last week. Tuesday, Minnesota nabbed QB Josh Dobbs from Arizona, but they will start rookie Jaren Hall (3-for-4, 23 yards in his career) against the Falcons.
Atlanta, too, will be without starting QB Desmond Ridder (concussion). He was replaced in last week’s defeat to Tennessee by Taylor Heinicke (12-12-1 as an NFL starter), who starts against Minnesota. He’s 0-1 against the Vikings.
Still alive? Falcons a worth survivor pool pick in NFL Week 9
Los Angeles Rams (3-5, 4-3-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (2-5, 3-4 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Packers QB Jordan Loves sports a 78.2 rating, 28th in the league. In his past five tilts, he’s thrown five TD passes and had eight picked off.
At home, Green Bay averages barely 65 rushing yards, third worst in the NFL. At Lambeau, the Pack yields a bottom-third 6.7 yards per throw on defense. Colucci is correct—horrible.
A nifty tack might be the first-half Under, since the Packers at home average the fewest points in the first 30 minutes (a measly 2.0) and the Falcons on the road average an NFL-worst 4.0 points.
One forecast calls for a temperature in the low 50s, a 56% chance of rain and 12-mph winds.
More on this game: Rams vs. Packers odds, props, predictions | How do QB injuries impact line movement and futures odds?
Arizona Cardinals (1-7, 4-4 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
These Browns are tough at home, where their yield of 4 yards per opponents’ pass is tops in the league. They allow 85 rushing yards per game in their barn, ranking them in the top third.
QB Deshaun Watson, however, has a rating of 80.9, No. 26 in the NFL. A shoulder tweak makes it seem as if it’s a coin flip whether he’ll play on any given Sunday.
“It seems like he’s going through the Lamar Jackson phase of his career; ‘Well, I really don’t want to get banged up.’ But Watson already has the money!” Colucci says. “That’s what’s funny. I don’t understand how they keep holding him out.
“A franchise quarterback, and he’s already sat out a year. We know his story. It’s just, does he want to be there? The defense is fabulous.”
A mild temperature is forecast, with a 40% chance of rain in the second half and winds escalating from 12 to 17 mph.
Seattle Seahawks (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2, 5-3 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Colucci calls Ravens QB Lamar Jackson a “turnover machine.” Not in the air, where only three of his 227 throws have been intercepted. But over his past five tilts, Jackson has fumbled seven times.
“That’s kept Baltimore from being really explosive,” he says. “I’m looking for a big effort out of Baltimore. Seattle is definitely better at home, but they’re efficient and well-coached.”
Since 2020, the Seahawks are 15-13 (including 12-16 ATS) on the highway.
Chicago Bears (2-6, 2-5-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (4-4, 2-5-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Since the 2019 regular season, after the Bears’ infamous Double Doink missed playoff field goal, they’re a league-worst 34.7 percent (25-48-2) against the number.
Moreover, Chicago games are an NFL-high 64 percent (16-9) to Over since last season.
This opened at 7 and quickly got bumped up half a point, not insignificantly, and gained another mid-week point.
“[Saints QB Derek] Carr looked good last week, very efficient. Their defense has to get it together. Chicago is just terrible without [Justin] Fields. It will be very difficult to win in New Orleans.”
Dallas Cowboys (5-2, 5-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1, 4-2-2 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
A lifelong Cowboys fan, Colucci was impressed with his team’s 33-9 halftime home advantage over the Rams last Sunday.
“When they play like that, they are very difficult to beat,” he said. “And that’s why you’re only seeing a field goal from the mighty Eagles. Two weeks ago, I would have thought this would have been a 5-, 5.5-point spread.
“But a lot has changed in the NFC, with San Francisco coming back to earth. If Dallas can win this game, they’ll stamp themselves right there with the Eagles. Detroit’s making a move, too. The NFC complexion has changed.”
Related: Top NFL betting sites | Best NFL betting promos and bonuses
Buffalo Bills (5-3, 3-5 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
This opened Cincinnati -1.5 early Monday, at South Point/Rampart, and soon jumped to 2.5, where mid-week Bills coin chopped a half-point.
“[Bengals QB Joe] Burrow was so effective last week,” Colucci said. “You see how deadly he is with that wide-receiver tandem, and you have [Joe] Mixon running at a high level.”
Burrow was 28-for-32, for 283 yards and three TDs, in a 31-17 triumph at San Francisco last Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined to catch 15 of 18 targeted throws, for 169 yards and a TD. Tailback Mixon ran for 87 yards and a score.
“I don’t think [Buffalo] is as well-coached as Cincinnati,” Colucci says. “I think this’ll be a game we’ll be rooting, from my side of the counter, for the Bills. They’ll have to put up a big effort to compete with Burrow.”
There’s nearly a 50% chance of rain forecast for the second half.
Los Angeles Chargers (3-4, 3-4 ATS) at New York Jets (4-3, 4-2-1 ATS)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
With Cousins out for the season, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is the new owner of the NFL’s best road QB Rating at 105.5. (Cousins’s was 109.4.)
As an 8.5-point favorite. LA blasted Chicago, 30-13, last week.
“That game killed us,” Colucci says. “That Jets defense is awesome … I’m anticipating two-way action here. With that total, we have to be very careful; if the Jets can score 20, you’re right there.”
In three home games, the Jets have averaged 18 points; in three road contests, the Chargers have averaged 23.
One to watch: Aaron Rodgers’ CPOY odds on the move