Although Alabama is 3-0 against Ole Miss since Lane Kiffin took over, it is just 1-2 against the spread in those games. Last season’s matchup was tied at 24 in the fourth quarter before stingy defense and a pair of Will Reichard field goals broke hearts in Oxford, producing a 30-24 win for the Crimson Tide, who failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites.
Alabama opened as just a 6.5-point home favorite this week, though the number climbed to -7 at some books. It currently sits for Tide bettors. It’s the fewest points Nick Saban’s team has laid at home since going off as a 5-point favorite against then-No. 2 Georgia on Oct. 17, 2020. ‘Bama won that game 41-24 and ultimately finished that season as undefeated national champions, earning its most recent title.
The Crimson Tide lost to Texas at home two weeks ago as a 7.5-point chalk and is just 1-2 ATS this season after beating South Florida 17-3 despite being favored by 34.
Ole Miss has covered in all three wins, outscoring Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech by a combined margin of 158-50.
Odds for Ole Miss vs. Alabama: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the best point spreads, moneylines, and totals for his SEC clash from top sportsbooks.
Ole Miss odds and betting breakdowm
The Rebels are an underdog for the first time since the 2022 Texas Bowl played last December in which they fell to Texas Tech 42-25. They’re 0-3 straight up in their last three games as a ‘dog since the start of the 2022 season.
Ole Miss trailed at halftime against a Tulane team missing star QB Michael Pratt on Sept. 9 but rallied from the 17-10 deficit by outscoring the Green Wave in New Orleans 27-3 in the second half. The Rebels followed up the impressive 37-20 win with a wire-to-wire conquest of Georgia Tech, covering a 17-point spread by prevailing, 48-23. Kiffin’s team has outscored opponents 100-23 in the second half of games.
USC transfer Jaxson Dart is in his second season under center for Ole Miss. He’s thrown for 852 yards while completing 66.2 percent of his passes through three games, throwing seven touchdown passes and just one interception. In last season’s six-point loss, Dart finished 18-for-31 for 212 yards and wasn’t picked off.
Quinshon Jenkins ran for two scores and finished with 135 yards on 25 carries against Alabama and returns as one of the nation’s most productive backs. The sophomore has scored in every game this season but hasn’t topped 60 yards in any of his three contests and is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. Judkins has been banged up and has been limited in practice with an undisclosed injury. He led the SEC in rushing yards as a freshman, but his issues have forced backup Ulysses Bentley IV into a heightened role.
Louisiana Tech senior transfer WR Tre Harris didn’t play against Georgia Tech last week, but he and starting tight end Caden Prieskorn have practiced this week and are hopeful to be in the mix against Alabama.
Alabama odds and betting breakdown
The Crimson Tide have won their last seven SEC openers but are just 4-3 ATS in those contests. The last time they started conference play 0-1 was 2015, when Ole Miss came into Tuscaloosa and pulled off a 43-37 upset as a six-point underdog. That’s the only win the Rebels have pulled off at Bryant-Denny Stadium since 1988.
Alabama suffered its first September loss since that 2015 defeat two Saturdays ago when Texas came to town and dominated in a 34-24 upset. Tide QB Jalen Milroe was scapegoated for his struggles since he finished just 14-for-27 and threw a pair of interceptions, losing his grip on the starting job. Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner got the nod last week against USF but struggled mightily, giving way to redshirt freshman Ty Simpson. Milroe will be back as the starter against Ole Miss.
The Rebels have lost the last seven meetings against Alabama, but have covered in four of those games. The Crimson Tide are averaging 52.9 points per game in that span.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama props picks
Here are a few Ole Miss vs. Alabama props picks for sports bettors to consider.
- Alabama QB Jalen Milroe OVER 0.5 interceptions (+110)
- Alabama QB Jalen Milore OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Ole Miss OVER 12.5 second-half points (-120)
Milroe isn’t polished as a passer, and the Rebels will look to pressure him into a mistake or two as they look to pull this upset. He should be good for at least one pick, but also will likely be given a long enough leash to surpass his rushing yards prop since he’s a gifted, elusive runner and gives Alabama its best chance to win based on what backups Buchner and Simpson put on display at USF last week. Ole Miss has been a strong second-half squad and are averaging 33.3 points in the final 30 minutes of games so far this month.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama pick ATS
This is a golden opportunity for Kiffin to finally pull off a victory against Nick Saban. If Judkins, Harris and Prieskorn are healthy enough to contribute, an upset is a definite possibility since Alabama lost a ton of talent from last season’s sturdy defense and struggled in its only real test to date. Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young’s pre-snap reads and accurate passing are already sorely missed, adding to the pressure on Milroe.
Pick: Ole Miss