LSU outfielder Dylan Crews is expected to be the No. 1 pick in July’s MLB Draft, but Tigers ace Paul Skenes would be in the driver’s seat for the top pick in most other years.
Skenes has been a dominant force for LSU’s pitching staff this season, playing a major role in getting the Tigers to their first College World Series since 2017. His last goal before the draft? Win a national championship.
If Skenes pitches anything like he has all season, LSU has a chance. The right-hander has drawn comparisons to some of the highest-profile pitching prospects in recent memory, and he’s about to give one MLB team’s future an instant boost.
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Here’s what you need to know about Skenes’ scouting report and MLB Draft outlook entering the College World Series.
Paul Skenes scouting report
MLB Pipeline labels Skenes “the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009.” For anyone who doesn’t remember the hype surrounding Strasburg, that’s quite the statement. Skenes has earned it.
Skenes averages about 98 mph on his fastball, up considerably from his sophomore season, and he has imposing size at 6-6 and 235 pounds. Skenes also has a strong slider and a changeup that is still a work in progress but could help make him even more lethal at the professional level.
Many overpowering flamethrowers deal with control issues, but that’s the area in which Skenes has shown the most progress in 2023. Skenes is walking just 1.5 batters per nine innings this season, about half of his 2022 walk rate. He’s also been generating more strikeouts, averaging 15.8 strikeouts per nine innings in a dramatic increase from 2022.
Entering the College World Series, Skenes has a 1.77 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts to 18 walks across 107 innings. Those are championship stats, and they’re the kind of numbers that will make every team at the top of the MLB Draft pay attention.
Some of Skenes’ most impressive traits go beyond the scouting report. He only spent one season at LSU, transferring from Air Force before this season. Skenes was a terrific pitcher at Air Force, but he was also a gifted hitter, posting a 1.046 OPS in 2022. If his ceiling wasn’t so high as a pitcher, Skenes likely could have made himself a legitimate MLB prospect based on his bat alone.
Skenes also got to work with former Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson at LSU this season. The Tigers paid big money to pry Johnson away from the Twins, and it appears to have paid off with Skenes looking more and more like a major league pitcher already.
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Paul Skenes MLB comparison
Skenes compares to Strasburg both in terms of hype and skillset. Like Skenes, Strasburg had the requisite size at 6-5 and could blow pitches past hitters.
Strasburg was ahead of his time with the velocity on his fastball, but unlike most flamethrowers, he also didn’t battle major control issues. Strasburg kept his walk rate at 2.2 batters per nine innings over the first six years of his MLB career, and any team will absolutely take that from a pitcher who can do just about everything else.
If Skenes’ impressive control from this season is sustainable, he can be the complete package. Strasburg finished his final season at San Diego State with 195 strikeouts and 19 walks, eerily similar to Skenes’ current marks of 188 strikeouts and 18 walks.
Skenes could compare well to Justin Verlander, who was also ahead of his time with his velocity. Early in his career, Verlander could blow pitches by hitters and sustain that velocity into the late innings. At 6-5, he’s built much like Skenes and Strasburg.
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Paul Skenes MLB Draft projection
Barring a surprise, Skenes looks like he will have something in common with both Strasburg and Verlander. With the Pirates likely to select Crews first overall, Skenes has a great chance to be drafted by the Nationals — like Strasburg in 2009 — and go second overall — like Verlander to Detroit in 2004.
The Nationals are guaranteed to have either Crews or Skenes available when they pick, and it would be a surprise if their pick wasn’t Skenes.
Strasburg helped Washington emerge out of a years-long rebuild early in his career before injuries took their toll. Could Skenes become the centerpiece of the Nationals’ current rebuild? He just turned 21, but Skenes has the talent to rise quickly through the system for a franchise that badly needs a new face.